The question has been asked many times over the past few months: has Duke basketball lost some of the shine it has earned over the last couple of decades?
While most fans will say that this is a myth, the stats since Duke's last national title in 2001 prove otherwise.
With inflated rankings and media hype, the Blue Devils have reached the top five of the AP Poll in every season since 2001. In 2002, 2003, and 2006 they have even reached the number one ranking in the AP Poll.
But with all of this hype, the Blue Devils have only reached the Final Four once in this span, a trip in 2004 against eventual national champions UConn.
In fact, Duke has only advanced further than the Sweet 16 once in this span and have not advanced past the first weekend in back-to-back seasons.
While Sweet 16 trips are nice for some, it is a disappointment for most Blue Devil fans. But it's not only the tourney where they have faltered.
It's been the whole late stretch of the college basketball season. In the months between November and January since 2001, when Duke usually plays its unchallenging non-conference schedule, Duke is 122-10 (.924). Impressive, right?
But in February and March of these years, Duke is a mediocre 69-31(.690). Without their easy wins and lack of physical play, the Devils have worn out in the later months of the season when tough conference play kicks in.
But win-loss records are not the only problem brewing in Durham.
A recent slew of top recruit transfers, high lighted by Taylor King, Eric Boateng, and Jamal Boykin, have left the program. Boykin left due to family illness, but the other two seemed to be unhappy with the coaching style (primarily Coach K not recognizing that he has a bench) and just up and left.
If you don't believe top prospects look at this as a warning sign and say, "Hey why would I want to play there?" then you obviously do not realize the fragile psyche of a ball player's mind.
And now we move of the final point of Duke's decline, the coaching. Coach K is a great coach, no one will deny that. But seriously, what is he doing?
Duke's main problem this year was a lack of an inside presence. What did he do this year? Sign a five-star shooting guard.
Duke also signed Olek Czyz, but the kid is an unproven force in the paint. He plays facing the basket and the scouts say he needs to improve on his post play. You miss Greg Monroe and sign a "post project," and you believe that is going to get you over the hump?
Maybe if Wojciechowski, a guard, wasn't developing big-man talent, Duke would have less of the Josh McRoberts and more of the Tyler Hansbroughs. If the coaches get the credit for building a program, they deserve the credit for ruining one as well.
So what's in store for this year's team with seven, count them seven, McDonald's All-Americans that "overachieved" last year?
Another late season collapse, another home loss to arch rival North Carolina for a fourth-straight time, or another undeserved high seed in the NCAA tournament, only to lose in the first weekend?
Apparently, the stats agree with all three. Be prepared Blue Devil fans, it's going to be a long, bumpy ride.
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2 months ago
There are definitely issues in Durham.
Some (Jalen Rose, Skip Bayless, etc.) suggest that they are recruiting too many pretty boys (obvious code for...not enough talented black athletes to compete with the nation's elite programs). I think this argument has a leg to stand on, but i think there are more pressing issues.
I believe the biggest concern for Duke is that it is no longer looked at as your older brother's Duke. They used to be one of 4 programs that could count on getting the nation's best high school players year in and year out. That isn't the case anymore. The parity in college basketball has had more negative effects on the Duke program (largely in recruiting) than almost any other program (I wold put Kentucky in that same category).
2 months ago
it's pretty to watch when the blue devils are flowing, but they have been a team full of finesse players in recent years. boozer and shelden williams were the "inside forces" and were not extremely tall but were strong enough to hold their own in the paint on the college level. ever since then, duke has relied so much on the 3-pointer and spreading it out and pentrating and kicking out, that they have lost many games simply because they can't compete in a grind it out game when the other team has an inside presence.
2 months ago
No, they are just not gainging it's mustard, any average team would love to make it to the sweet sixteen, and Duke does it on a seasonal basis, they will get it back though. Give them two years and until then it will just be another avarage season, you know only a elite eight or sweet sixteen, you know something average like that
from 2 months ago
The reason it's looked at as average because Duke supposed to be one of the elite finishers every year. Not the elite team that fizzles out because they're game plan only works if their shooters are on. Every player has an off shooting night from three. You don't see dominant college post players have many off nights unless a team plays amazing defense (I.E. Memphis against Roy Hibbert). You always see someone having an off shooting night whether its in the season or the big dance. Duke hasn't had a good big man leave an impact on their program since Laettner left.
2 months ago
Matt, you nailed it. Little to no interior production was a major problem for Duke this year. Don't get me wrong, Duke was an extremely talented team this year. A 28-win season in a BCS conference is nothing to sneeze at. The Blue Devils even beat my beloved 'Heels in the Dean Dome (handily). But this team was not built for March. Too much perimeter. If the three ball wasn't falling, Duke didn't have enough interior presence to post up or even rebound and score garbage points. Penetrate and kick.
I can't for the life of me figure out why Coach K's having trouble recruiting, except I think he's been burned by "one and done's" in the past (Brand, Boozer, etc.) and might prefer to have four-year guys. Even worse news for Duke: the 3-point line moves back a foot next year. It won't affect a shooter like Scheyer, but interior play might become even more important.
Great post.
2 months ago
Definitely agree with that Greg about the 3-point line. It wont affect the good shooters, but the way it spreads out the defense it will really help post players get open, which in their case on defense may be a problem. Who knows though, Zoubek may come back healthy next season and live up to potential? I guess miracles can happen!
2 months ago
First of all, I agree, I'm not sure what Coach K's plan is. In the beginning of the season, he emphasized the spread the floor, perimeter-style that he "learned" from Mike D'Antoni. This worked brilliantly at the beginning of the season. Their spacing was superb. With Singler and King playing the 4 and the 5, they were a match-up nightmare. Their potent offense was enough to make up for their shortcomings on the inside.
Then, K got away from that at the start of the ACC season. Once Zoubek came back from his foot injury, he took king's minutes (surprisingly). Now, Zoubek is kind of a stiff in the front court. He doesn't offer much in the way of offense, but does rebound and play somewhat better defense than Taylor. But the Blue Devils were worse off with him taking King's minutes - which may be a reason why he transferred. I don't know what he did, but K sat him.
I don't think that Duke necessarily got worse over the season as a result of their lack of an inside threat - you can go far without it. John Belein does it every year and it appears to work with the right amount of shooters and aggressive wing men. I think it's because Duke didn't have nearly the spacing later in the season. That is to say, K didn't stick with his original plan and for that, he should be faulted. A prime example of this is the Clemson game in the ACC Tournament.
2 months ago
Being a Duke fan I'm upset by their lack of recruiting at times and I try to think of it this way. They have a limited number of kids to get for two reasons...1-They have to find kids that can even get into the school which is easier said than done. 2-Coach K is trying to recuit kids that will play longer than 1 or 2 years.
The parity in college basketball in my opinion is because kids that only want to play one year will go to a school where they can shoot 25 times a game. Look at the last two years, Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley. These kids knew they were one and done and wanted to put up huge numbers to get some attention.
I think Duke will be back in the next couple of years but I agree they won't be in the final four or finals as often as they once were. But in all fairness, Coach K has the most wins in NCAA tourney history and once he retires he will have the most win in NCAA history. Not bad for a coach that is beat up a lot by fans.
I think one thing that will hurt Duke is the fact that Johnny Dawkins is now the head coach of Stanford.
Good Post.
2 months ago
I also am upset on how they are doing, Duke is by far my favourite college basketball team. I think it is just a bit of a dry spell. They need to recruit some more gritty players who fight for rebounds and are good lock down defenders. I think this dry spell will end soon though, its only a matter of time until they are back to their form from a few years back.
2 months ago
Johnny Dawkins gone, enough said...Consider Duke indiana in the 90's
2 months ago
I'm not a rabid fan, but must question the premise of the article saying the Duke program is in some perpetual decline? Based on what measures? The article says that "the stats since Duke's last national title in 2001 prove" the program is in decline. Two years in a row of not making it to the sweet sixteen or further is not long enough to note some level of program demise. The same thing happened to Duke in 96 and in 97. I'm sure there were some articles then as well about the demise of the program. Well, since that last spell of 2 years of decline, they've been to 3 Final Fours (99, 01, 04) and won 7 conference championships (1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006). That is plenty of recent success, even if you just go back to 04. If the same thing occurs for yet a couple more years consecutively, then perhaps there is something to write about. But if the program goes to the final four 2-3 per decade, I'm not sure how much decline you can label that with.
2 months ago
I think the reason Duke is slipping isn't so much Duke slipping, but others catching up. In today's world, you don't have to go to a big name school to get recognized. Thus, these kids in high school know they can go be stars at the lesser named schools, and still get plenty of pub. Whether their goals are to make the NBA, or just be a college star, or whatever, they can put their name on the map at most any school they go. It's the reason the smaller schools in general are performing better, and it's also the reason you see so much parity in college football too.
2 months ago
This article is linked on sports illustrateds website. Nice job!
2 months ago
thanks man appreciate it!
2 months ago
thanks man appreciate it, could you send me the link I cant find it.
2 months ago
On the main page, go down to extra mustard, then click on hot clicks. Then click on "more hot clicks" then at the top, where it says "recent hot clicks" choose the 4-25-08 option. Then, under "today in campus clicks" there is a story about Greg Oden liking boxed wine. Click that link. Then it's the 2nd story down. I saw it at like 7am so they must have updated since then making it annoying to find. So you can either do all the steps I wrote or you can just click this
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/sioncampus/04/25/campus.clicks0425/index.html
did you submit it to them or did someone else? either way, good move.
And go Tarheels!
2 months ago
I'd like to ask Matt Smith something....
How in the hell do you grow man-tits before the age of 21?
Your writing sucks and you have no future as a journalist. I'd suggest dancing.
from 2 months ago
its easy, you eat a lot
i'd suggest your quit stalking and do something with your life
2 months ago
Stalking? I followed a link from a message board! lol You should be happy. You're famous now.
The person that posted the link offered up your article as proof of "Duke's demise". Then I found out you were a unc homer and had to comment.
After reading some of your articles, I apologize for the comments concerning your writing (and the man tits thing). Just stick to unc fluff articles and refrain from criticizing Coach K's program. You offer opinions, i.e. Wojo's lack of coaching ability regarding big men, King & Boateng leaving due to K's coaching style, etc. But without some sort of quote or reference, they are simply unfounded opinions.
btw, I'm assuming you'll do an article on Wojo's coaching ability in regards to Carlos Boozer...right? Or maybe an article about unc big men in the pros vs Duke's. Just at thought.
from 2 months ago
One more thing....where do you attend journalism school? I'm assuming unc-chapel hill. lol
2 months ago
hey buddy don't get man because someone calls your program out
UNC sure got called out during the Doherty years but at least we had a coaching change not lack of skills
and most sports writing is someone's opinion, its called an editorial
sports writers give their opinions on sports, you don't have to read it or agree with it if you don't like
And yes Wojo did a nice job with Boozer and Williams, but for real what has he done recently? Like I said in the article you get the credit when things go right, you get the negative pub when they go wrong
If you would like to write an article about how UNC blows go right ahead, and as for homer yes I mostly right on UNC, if Duke does something good I'll write a nice article about that as well, but for the past two years they haven't done a thing so I guess we'll both wait around for that article to come out
And seriously UNC/Duke big men in the pros? College, not pros, you can go take that up with an NBA guy or something because this isn't about the pros.
Everyone has bad periods, just don't expect them to be overlooked because you're Duke.
2 months ago
Sure teams go through "bad periods". You have labeled the last two years of Duke basketball as "bad". A period where they have won 50 games. unc's "bad period" saw them win a grand total of 27 games (out of 63 played).
What has Wojo done recently? Oh, I don't know. Maybe his work with Mike Dunleavy has helped. Randolph landed on an NBA roster. McRoberts may very well wind up in the NBA. Who knows?
Most of the time when writers write (not "right") an editorial they back it up with some facts. You didn't.
You pretty much just regurgitate Luke Winn articles.
2 months ago
I'm sure we'd love to see what you have to say so write it down in an article and let us know
Its easy to sit there and judge what other people write without some examples of your own
So I'll enjoy our Final Four appearances and winning on your senior night
You can continue to be bitter and not realize that your team is a shell of what it once was
Its my opinion yall suck, its you're opinion you don't, if it wasn't true you wouldn't be here arguing with me about it
2 months ago
I've written plenty of articles. Check my email address.
2 months ago
"...and as for homer yes I mostly right(sic) on UNC..."
You mean..."write"?
Leroy, I guess that means he did study journalism anywhere.
Funny these Heel fans wear that one season like a badge of honor! They paid their dues, now they can sing the blues!
Anyway, I think the reports of Duke's demise are greatly exaggerated. They were in the top 10 every week of the season, save the first two (they were actually ranked 13th preseason) and they split with Carolina.
Yeah terrible, how ever will they come back from this debacle?!
2 months ago
that top ten team also lost on the second weekend, your ranking doesn't change that, and yes I spelled "write" wrong earlier you pointed it out twice, I'm glad you caught my mistake. If thats the only problem you have then I guess I'm doing well because you keep coming back and making the hit counter go up.
2 months ago
You are Da Man Matt!
Introspective, contemplative, probing, and most of all ANTI-Duke!
Like I said; top 10 all but two weeks, those being the 1st two.
Whatever will Duke do!
Losing in the final 32 of certainly makes them gutter sewage doesn't it?!
I always thought it was Heel fans who advocated "looking at the body of work"!LOL
Duke RPI #7 out of 341 D1 schools.
Need a link?
http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/polls/rpi/index1
Hey you heel fans can take comfort in that you were second in the RPI while Kansas was 5th!
2 months ago
"your ranking doesn't change that"
PS I'm not a Duke grad, an Iron Duke member, or a Duke fan. Just an ABCer who hates to see you homers distrot the truth!
As far as the hit count, I'm happy to do it, doesn't cost ME a thing.
2 months ago
I'll take comfort in the fact that we won the ACC outright, while you choked away a two game lead
won the ACC tournament while you failed to make the finals
and got to the Final Four while you couldn't win the second round game
If you are HAPPY with the results you've produced the last two years, then more power to you!
2 months ago
No Duke fan in their right mind would be "happy" with this past year's finish. But Duke certainly was much better than the year before. If these last two years were Duke's "8 and 20", then so be it.
The premise of your article is pretty good. Duke has certainly not been....well, Duke...the last couple years. But, your statement that "K is ruining a program" is absurd.
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