Noah Lowry: Possible Giants Savior?

The San Francisco Giants are currently 8-12 which is roughly seven wins more than many thought they would have 20 games into the 2008 season. As well as Tim Lincecum has pitched and John Bowker has hit, the team is destined for a vacation come playoff time.

But there is hope. The Giants possess a commodity that every playoff contender covets and that is starting pitching. More specifically, Noah Lowry, after a string of quality starts, would be an exceptionally valuable bargaining chip to remedy the meager offense.

Lowry, from a statistical standpoint, is an absolute enigma. He has allowed more hits than innings pitched only one time in his five year career (stellar) but also only struck out more than 100 batters once (not so much). He rarely hits 90mph, but for a soft-tossing lefty in the Tom Glavine mold, he is incredibly inaccurate.

Last season, Lowry had a perfect 1 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio with 87k’s and 87 walks. That is terrible for a Major League pitcher and what is alarming for the Giants is that his k/BB ratio has decreased every season of his career. What is more unsettling is the fact that Lowry has failed to pitch 200 innings the last two seasons due to injuries.

Trading him while the value is still somewhat high makes sense for the Giants.

But after analyzing those statistics, why would a contender want him?

Well, for starters, Lowry managed to win 14 games on a bad team last season while making only 26 starts. He nearly cut his home runs allowed in half while posting his best ground ball to fly ball ratio of his career. Lowry rolled up 11 more double plays than his previous career high last season. These numbers illustrate that Lowry is learning to become a groundball pitcher. In the words of Billy Beane, “You can’t hit a groundball over the fence.”

Pitchers can truly control three statistics; strikeouts, walks and homers. Lowry has significantly reduced his home runs allowed and raised his k’s/9 innings ratio from 2006. If Lowry could reduce his walk totals and command the strike zone better, he would be one of the more efficient pitchers in the majors.

And who would want a 27 year old lefty coming off a “sub-par” 14-win season with a 2008 salary of only $2.5 million? Countless young women as there is a Facebook group more devoted to his “hotness” than the heat on his fastball. But as for contenders lacking in the starting pitching department?

Well, the Yankees are struggling as Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Mike Mussina are a combined 1-8. Maybe Lowry and Randy Winn/Dave Roberts for Melky Cabrera? One can dream, right?

The Angels will be without John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar for an extended period of time. Lowry for Juan Rivera and his 23 homers in 2006? Kendry Morales? Casey Kotchman would look a lot like Will Clark in the orange and black.  

The only starter on the Tigers with more than one win is a guy named Armando Galarraga. Lowry for a couple of the Tigers’ offensive prospects might work out.

The Mets simply cannot rely on Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez to make all of their starts. The Mets could be desperate and/or terrified of another collapse so maybe Angel Pagan and his near .400 OBP could be acquired. Or maybe setup man Duaner Sanchez could be brought in to bolster the bullpen.

By the way, all of the above mentioned trades worked in Sony’s MLB The Show 2008’s franchise mode which means absolutely nothing, but it is interesting to see computer controlled teams recognizing the value of a young lefty.

And for those worried about Lowry becoming a star elsewhere, Johnny Sanchez and his 11.7 k’s/9 innings has better stuff and a better chance at stardom than Lowry. Patrick Misch is an eerie clone of Lowry in AAA Fresno. He also strangely bats from the right side, exposing his throwing arm to brush back pitches.

Lowry then, is expendable.

The Giants need Lowry to come back healthy and ready to win so that they can use the desperation some teams will have as the trade deadline nears. Lowry will not bring in a haul of prospects, but with some careful scouting, maybe a diamond in the rough could be found. It was not all that long ago that the Pirates traded Jason Schmidt to the Giants for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong.