Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Bills are in after a bye week, a situation that generally suits them as they're on an 8-3-1 ATS run after an off-week. Atlanta, meanwhile, is mired in an 0-5 slide, both straight up and against the spread, when catching points on the road.

Point spread

Bills opened as 5-point favorites in this matchup, which is a Bills "home" game in nearby Toronto; the total was 46. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction

18.9-15.1 Bills

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Though Atlanta has lost five in a row, it arrives in Toronto after a solid showing from its defensive unit against the high-powered New Orleans Saints. The Falcons limited New Orleans to just 17 points in a four-point loss and have extra time of their own to prepare.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo not only comes in after a bye week, but it's also in off a home blowout win over the New York Jets. The victory snapped a three-game slide, which raised questions about the offense.

The 37-14 rout of the Jets quashed concerns, and now, Buffalo will be refreshed. The Bills are also riding a stellar 8-2 ATS streak overall.

Smart Pick

Although the Bills are 1-4 SU and ATS in Ontario, Buffalo is the right play in this one, as all the right elements and intangibles are in its favor. The Falcons' dismal season and their failure to play efficiently on the road and, most importantly, we're talking about a different climate to deal with—albeit the Rogers Centre roof will surely be closed.

Trends

• Bills are 8-3-1 ATS past 12 seasons after a bye week
• UNDER is 11-3 past 14 Buffalo games after a bye week
• Five of past six meetings played OVER the total
• Falcons 0-5 SU & ATS past five as road dogs
• Bills 8-2 ATS past 10 home games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.