Quick, think of the top second basemen in all of the majors. Did you think of Chase Utley? I’m sure you thought of Robinson Cano, Placido Polanco or maybe even Aaron Hill or Dustin Pedroia. Ian Kinsler? Dan Uggla?
Well, there is a player few people think of as one of the best second basemen in the game, yet he’s one of the best all around players at the position. He’s lost in a small market on the West Coast. His name is Mark Ellis, and he’s going to be a free agent this year.
Mark Ellis almost has a cult-like following. He is beloved in Oakland, and respected by announcers across the country. The first thing visiting teams’ announcers say when Ellis steps in the box is, “this guy is a tough, tough out.”
Still, the casual baseball fan might not have heard of Mark Ellis, or if they have, they might not think much of the 5’11, 180-pounder from South Dakota.
I will argue that because of his great overall performance, Mark Ellis belongs in the same breath as the Robinson Canos, Chase Utleys, and Placido Polancos.
I will do this using several different baseball metrics that evaluate offensive production and defensive production. Some of the stats you may have heard of, others will be new to you. I will use the 2007 season as the basis for my arguments.
Offense
OPS+
The first stat I will look at is OPS+, which is a simple measure of a players OPS, relative to their ballpark. The average OPS+ is 100, with the higher the number the better.
Lets take a look at Cano’s, Utley’s, Polanco’s, Uggla's, Kinsler's, Pedroia's, and Ellis’ OPS+ numbers:
Utley = 145
Polanco = 122
Cano = 120
Pedroia = 112
Ellis = 110
Kinsler = 109
Uggla = 108
Hill = 107
So Utley owns all the players in OPS+. Only four of the players rank higher than Ellis, but Ellis is not that far behind them in this category, especially considering Ellis is not known for his bat.
.EqA
A second stat I will look at is .EqA, which is a stat that measures many offensive contributions from stolen bases to home runs. It judges a player on a scale similar to batting average. .260 is an average .EqA.
Utley = .322
Polanco = .288
Kinsler = .277
Pedroia = .277
Cano = .277
Uggla = .274
Ellis = .269
Hill = .264
Again, to no one’s surprise, Utley owns all the others in this category. Still, Ellis is not far behind Cano and Uggla.
UVI
A third offensive metric I will look at is UVI, which is a stat developed by Nathaniel Stoltz to judge a player’s total offensive prowess. It can be read about here. I will use UVI2, which is adjusted for the players’ home park.
Utley = .584
Uggla = .507
Kinsler = .503
Ellis = .486
Polanco = .483
Pedroia = .469
Cano = .453
Hill = .444
This metric finds Mark Ellis in the middle of the pack of elite second basemen, but surprisingly finds him above Polanco and Cano.
Defense
Now I’m going to turn to defensive stats. Defense is Ellis’ specialty, and in my opinion he’s the top defensive second baseman in the league.
This is where Ellis will catch up for his bat, as evident by the stats. I will not use fielding percentage because it has no indication of a players range.
In fact, you could argue it discourages range because far-ranging plays are harder and thus lead to more errors.
Zone Rating
The first stat I will look at is Zone Rating. ZR is a way of looking at how many plays a player makes in his “zone.”
Ellis = .887
Utley = .874
Hill = .849
Cano = .846
Pedroia = .833
Polanco = .824
Kinsler = .819
Uggla = .754
According to this stat, Ellis was the most successful at protecting the “zone” surrounding the second base position.
FRAA
Another stat is FRAA, or Fielding Runs Above Average, which is a way of judging how many runs a player saves over the course of a year based on their defense. If the number is negative, then the said player is below average for his position.
Cano = 28
Hill = 25
Ellis = 24
Pedroia = 15
Polanco = 14
Kinsler = 7
Utley = 6
Uggla = -12
Ellis is very close to Cano and Hill in this stat. Saving 10 runs is said to be equal to “winning” a game for your team. Basically, Ellis “won” the A’s two and a half games with his defense, and Cano “won” nearly three games for the Yankees.
Range Factor
Another common stat used is Range Factor. RF measures how many plays a person makes by counting their putouts and assists. Though it has its flaws, this stat can still be looked at to find how good a player is, and I believe it to be better than Fielding Percentage.
Kinsler = 5.69
Ellis = 5.45
Cano = 5.22
Hill = 5.13
Utley = 5.10
Polanco = 5.08
Pedroia = 4.88
Uggla = 4.72
According to this stat, Ellis makes the second most plays out of all the second basemen that we’re comparing.
Overall Measure
WARP3
Finally, I will look at WARP3, which stands for “Wins Above Replacement Player.” What this stat estimates is how many games a player wins over a replacement player.
A replacement player is measured as the average production for a AAA player. Accordingly, the larger the number the better the player.
Cano = 11.4
Utley = 10.7
Ellis = 9.9
Hill = 9.9
Polanco = 9.8
Pedroia = 8.4
Kinsler = 7.7
Uggla = 6.5
According to WARP3, Ellis, as an overall player, has higher value than Placido Polanco, and slightly less value than Chase Utley. Cano is the best second baseman in the league, earning a win and a half more than Ellis over the course of the season.
So after looking at several stats, I think it’s clear that Ellis belongs in the discussion of the best second basemen in all of baseball. I’m not saying he is THE best, but he certainly is close.
When your team signs Mark Ellis this offseason to become the starting second baseman, don’t say, “WHO THE HELL IS MARK ELLIS?” Instead say, “we got ourselves a damn fine second baseman.”
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5 months ago
One of the things about Ellis that doesn't really show up here is that out of that whole list, I believe he's older than all but Polanco. Therefore, while the others are improving or plateauing, Ellis may soon decline. 2Bs generally have shorter careers than anyone but Cs.
Still, Ellis really deserves a Gold Glove at 2B, and his line-drive stroke and consistency are hard to find. Good work (and bonus points for using my stat!) :)
from 5 months ago
Yeah all these players will most likely top out higher than Ellis. The only one that might have topped out is probably Polanco, and maybe Utley, who is approaching 30. Sky is the limit for the other guys. But for right now Ellis needs to be getting more props than the dude is getting. It's probably because he's an Athletic and plays in the West Coast after ESPN goes to bed.
from 5 months ago
Yeah, he just grinds away and no one notices, especially in a small market.
5 months ago
Ellis is one of those guys that has never really had a huge season. I believe this has probably been one of his best starts, but if history serves right, he'll probably end up with average numbers. I'm a Bay Area guy, and I've always wanted to see Crosby and Ellis really take off. It just hasn't happened yet. I do think the A's are a real sleeper this year though. I wouldn't be surprised if they are in the division hunt to the very end.
5 months ago
why didn't u include brandon phillips? he might be better than anyone on ur list
from 5 months ago
You're right I probably could have included him but I checked his OPS+ and it was only 102 last year. He had an out-of-the-blue good defensive year last year so his WARP3 was better than a few people on the list. I don't think many people think of Phillips when they think of great second basemen, but if he plays defense like he did last night then that might change. haha.
from 5 months ago
*He OPS+ed 105 last year....I meant.
from 5 months ago
Phillips has had one good year; everyone on this list has had at least two. I think it's fair enough to ask Phillips to repeat before we really consider him in this discussion. Also, of all of these, only Utley gets anywhere near as much park-related benefit as Phillips does.
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