NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference First Round Preview

After such an exciting regular season, the 2007-2008 NBA playoffs should be one of the best ever. The playoffs are always high drama as heroes and villains are forged through their play, but this season features some of the most compelling matchups to date.

No matter what the outcome of any playoff game, the true winners are the fans—who will be rewarded with nothing but fantastic basketball from now until May.

Here’s what to look for in the East:

Boston vs. Atlanta

There is a reason why the Celtics have the best record in the NBA. There is a reason why the Hawks have a losing record. The reasons will be obvious when watching.

Atlanta gets most of their points on the break, in early offense, with Joe Johnson and Josh smith isolating at the wings, or with Marvin Williams knocking down baseline jumpers. Boston’s athletic and physical wings and coordinated help defense will have little trouble bumping then swarming on Atlanta’ attempts to penetrate.

Meanwhile, Atlanta lacks any elite defender besides the reckless Josh Smith who only cares about steals and shot blocks. Paul Pierce and co. will get whatever they want all series long against the too lean, too inexperienced Hawks.

Prediction: Give the Hawks credit for meeting expectations but the Celtics are superior in every way. This series will be non-competitive. Celtics in 4.

Detroit vs. Philadelphia

This matchup will be decided in the backcourt. Andre Miller and Lou Williams aren’t physical enough to hinder Chauncey Billups and Willie Green and Rodney Carney aren’t strong or experienced enough to survive the waves of screens Rip Hamilton will run through to generate open shots.

On the other side of the ball, Rip Hamilton’s length will leave Willie Green a spectator for the duration of the series.

Andre Miller may be too crafty for Lindsay Hunter and Rodney Stuckey’s ball pressuring, but Billups is strong and smart enough to keep Miller from going around screens and using his incredible vision to see what plays are opening up.

Will Miller be smarter than Billups will be tougher?

Andre Iguodala may be too strong for Tayshaun Prince to handle, but Prince will lay off and let A.I. fire jumpers at will until he proves he can hit. If Iguodala drives past him, Rasheed Wallace will provide physical help defense all of the time, Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson will help most of the time, and Antonio McDyess will provide successful help almost none of the time.

Rasheed’s length will swallow Thaddeus Young up, and McDyess gets a free ride guarding either Samuel Dalembert, Reggie Evans, or Jason Smith. It will be up to McDyess to provide strong help defense when Iguodala attacks the hoop, while also playing disciplined when Andre Miller drives so open passing lanes to Dalembert don’t result in cookies.

Louis Williams and Rodney Carney aren’t experienced enough to provide consistent scoring off the bench against Detroit‘s defense. Detroit, meanwhile, has Jarvis Hayes, Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Juan Dixon, and Aaron Afflalo to manufacture their own points.

Stuckey and Dixon aren’t championship-level decision makers so expect Lindsay Hunter to provide the majority of backup point guard minutes where his pressure defense and smart decision making are postseason luxuries.

Maxiell will work just as hard as Reggie Evans will and Hayes and Affalo’s ability to move without the ball will frustrate and confound Carney and Williams.

Prediction: Don’t count out Andre Miller’s craftiness in creating scoring opportunities out of nothing. In the end though, the Sixers will have a ton of problems coming up with a third scorer while Detroit has a multitude of options for Philly to deal with. Pistons in 5.

Orlando vs. Toronto

Fortunately for Toronto, Rasho Nesterovic can provide some muscle to bang Dwight Howard under the hoop and keep him from vacuuming the offensive backboard.

Unfortunately for Toronto, Howard will be used in screen/rolls with Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, and especially Hedo Turkoglu where Nesterovic will be forced to step out and check the Orlando wings. Chris Bosh and the rest of his teammates are far too puny to rotate down and provide any resistance on Howard’s dive cuts. That relatively simple play call will be run over and over since Toronto will have no way to stop it.

Neither Jose Calderon nor T.J. Ford is strong enough to play effective defense but they’re both relieved by Jameer Nelson’s ordinary facilitating skills. Who will make more mistakes, Nelson on offense or Ford on defense?

Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker are above average defenders who will match up reasonably well with Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Too bad Toronto’s help defense is too frail and flimsy to provide effective help defense on Turkoglu and Lewis when they get a step on their defenders. And both Lewis and Hedo are too dangerous as shooters to be sagged off of.

On the other side of the ball, the Magic have nobody to match up with Chris Bosh and he’ll go off for big points all series long. If Howard helps or ends up defending, then Rasho Nesterovic will be left alone under the hoop for easy baskets.

However, aside from Bosh, the Raptors don’t have anybody else who will create their own looks. Keyon Dooling will make life miserable for T.J. Ford, forcing him into a number of mistakes. Keith Bogans will lock down Parker, and Moon isn’t somebody who will consistently create his own shot.

Andrea Bargnani will be lifted up and swallowed by Dwight Howard—maybe literally— and Carlos Delfino and Jason Kapono are totally reliant on other players setting them up behind the arc.

Jose Calderon could come in and provide a spark by penetrating and dishing all game long, but that would result in management conceding that Calderon is a better player than Ford and that they’re shelling out $8 million to a backup.

Prediction: Howard will go off. Bosh will go off. But Orlando will have Lewis and Turkoglu while the Raptors will have franchise-altering decisions to make this offseason. Magic in 4.

Cleveland vs. Washington

With the exception of a handful of Zydrunas Ilgauskas post-ups, the Cavaliers offense will be all LeBron, all the time. It will need to be if Cleveland wants to win.

Delonte West and Daniel Gibson won’t make mistakes but neither of them will make plays with Antonio Daniels defending them. Ben Wallace is a complete liability on offense, and Wally Szczerbiak is heading down the road to the glue factory.

The only other perimeter player who can consistently put pressure on a defense is Devin Brown, but Brown’s bull-in-a-china-shop drives are best suited to coming off the bench than starting at the two-guard spot.

Joe Smith’s baseline jumper is the only reliable offensive weapon the Cavs have off the bench. Damon Jones can occasionally shoot Cleveland into a win, but his terrible decision making, inept defense, and habit of choking during crunch time make him more of a hindrance than a help.

So Cleveland’s offense will depend entirely on LeBron.

Caron Butler certainly has the first step, the quick hands, and the mental toughness to defend LeBron the majority of the time, while Deshawn Stevenson also has the long arms and the toughness to succeed against King James.

Of Course LeBron will put up his prodigious numbers against each of them, but Stevenson and Butler can be trusted to sag on James and then move their feet to force James into help.

Antawn Jamison is much too soft to provide the ferocious and physical help defense needed to match James’ raw muscle, and Brendan Haywood’s decisions to help will leave Ilgauskas all alone for baseline jumpers. If Ziggy’s jumper is working than this factor may be the difference in the series.

Cleveland’s perimeter defense is too slow to stop Daniels, Arenas, and Stevenson from carving alleys too the hoop. LeBron’s defense has picked up this year and he should be able to keep Caron Butler from going off.

Jamison and Blatche are much too athletic for Wallace’s crippling body to handle. Expect Mike Brown to give Anderson Varejao the majority of minutes at the power forward position.

Also, the Wizards have too much scoring talent coming off the bench, particularly Gilbert Arenas, for Cleveland’s counterparts to match. The Wizards shouldn’t have too many problems putting up points against the Cavs, especially at home.

Prediction: This may be the most evenly matched series of the first round and is certainly the only Eastern Conference series that will be up for grabs. Will Ilgauskas’ jumper be on? Can Washington find the muscle to stop LeBron? Can Cleveland slow down the Wizards on the perimeter? It may take seven games to answer the questions but LeBron will wear down Washington’s front court by the end of the series. Cavs in 6.