UFC 83 Preview Part One of Two: Main Card

170 lbs: Matt Serra (9-4) vs. Georges St. Pierre (15-2) Welterweight Championship

What else can be said about these two? Serra, the real-life Rocky story, worked his way through the Ultimate Fighter Comeback show, scored a close (but not as controversial as some make it out to be) win over Chris Lytle in the finals, and went on to face the young champion, who had just destroyed previous welterweight kingpin Matt Hughes.

But not so fast, as this saga was postponed by the first of many injuries when GSP pulled out.

When the two finally did match up, Serra pulled out one of the most shocking upsets in all of MMA as the 10-1 underdog blasted St. Pierre with a barrage of heavy punches to put him away in the first round, giving the Canadian his first TKO loss. After the fight, St. Pierre congratulated the new champion, but afterwards their comments toward each other turned ugly. I won’t recap the entire saga because that would require an entire article in itself. Suffice it to say that both fighters feel disrespected, and they currently don’t get along.

The situation only heightened when Serra, scheduled for his first title defense against Matt Hughes, pulled out due to a back/neck injury, and GSP pounced on the opportunity and stepped in, again overwhelming Hughes and this time submitting him. Upon being given the interim title for the division, St. Pierre stated that he did not feel he was champion until he beat Serra. Now the two are finally squaring off tomorrow night, and I can say this: expect fireworks.

Serra’s heavy hands will undoubtedly play into the equation, but some are dismissing the first knockout due to Serra’s lack of previous knockouts (despite putting the solid-chinned Karo Parysian to the canvas with one shot) and the fact that the punch that started the final barrage connected as more of a forearm on the side of the head. Fluke or not (I say not), Serra will not have the element of surprise disguising his punching power this time around.

Similar to this is his top-level jiu-jitsu; Serra is a Renzo Gracie blackbelt who has destroyed names like Takanori Gomi in pure grappling competition, but has not shown a great acumen for translating his skills into MMA. Serra only has four submissions in his MMA career, and none of them come against high-level competition. However his submission defense is quite solid, and quite frankly I don’t see either man winning by submission unless there is a lot of “softening up” via strikes involved.

St. Pierre has once against become the juggernaut that he had been seen as prior to the loss to Serra, notching impressive wins by outwrestling Josh Koscheck and submitting Hughes. He has said to have been training harder than ever for this fight, as usual specializing in all areas (wrestling, boxing, Muay Thai) with high-level experts in each field, and training at Team Jackson with fighters like Rashad Evans, Nate Marquardt, and Roger Huerta. He has also been seeing a sports psychologist to eliminate the mental issues that have supposedly dogged his career thus far. He has also been in heavy competition (the two aforementioned fights) while Serra has not competed for over a year since winning the belt.

It comes down to this; St. Pierre should beat Matt Serra. On paper, he beats him easily, however, the same thing applied to their last meeting. All extenuating circumstances (undertraining, underestimation, injuries) aside, can Serra land the same devastating strikes he did last time? For all his positive attributes, Serra has never gone five rounds in his career, and (especially at welterweight) looks to fade in the later rounds.

If he can use the mental edge from the last fight and get inside to batter “Rush,” he could make lightning strike twice. However, GSP has promised to do something to Serra that no one has seen before, and I assume it involves finishing him (for only the second time in his career). Given the events of the last fight and all that has happened since then, I simply cannot pick against St. Pierre in this fight.

If you’re inclined to make a wager, Serra has a chance, and the odds are enticing, but I don’t see it being enough. Rocky goes down to Drago (not Pete Sell) this time.

185 lbs.: Rich Franklin (22-3) vs. Travis Lutter (9-4)

Rich “Ace” Franklin, once the middleweight monarch in the UFC, has been brought down hard off his throne by the newly-imported beast of a fighter in Anderson Silva, being stopped by strikes twice. While Franklin has little to be embarrassed about (seeing as Silva has done the same to every single person he has encountered in the octagon), he is in the tenuous position of being a “Jeremy Horn,” where he can ostensibly beat everyone in the division except the champion.

Lutter had his own encounter against Silva (winning the shot on the same show where Serra won his), but failed to make the weight and was forced to compete in a non-title match in a very depleted state. Shockingly, he did very well against Silva, taking him down and even mounting him, but lost position when going for a sloppy armbar and ending up being submitted himself via triangle choke.

Somehow Lutter has worked his way back into the UFC despite a furious Dana White and what some would call a less-than-exciting style, and he plans to make the most of it.

This is a do-or-die for both men, I believe. Lutter needs to make a statement after his last debacle, and is well aware that this win could land him a title shot, especially since he has arguably done better than anyone else has against Silva thus far. Franklin needs a win to stay near the top of the division so that he could land himself back in contention if/when the belt leaves Silva’s waist. Ironically, Franklin might do better letting Lutter take the shot at Silva, but I don’t think he plans to lose the fight.

Style-wise, it’s roughly a striker vs. grappler at hearr, but Franklin’s wrestling, particularly his takedown defense, is often underestimated. Similarly, Lutter can stand a bit, and has only one TKO loss in his career, leading me to believe that his chin and/or defense is pretty solid, but I don’t think he plans to bang it out with Franklin any longer than he has to.

On the ground, Lutter has a decided advantage, having very good subs and a surprisingly adept ground and pound. Franklin’s submission defense (via Jorge Gurgel) is not to be questioned, but he was in trouble against Yushin Okami with a kimura, and Okami is generally not known for his submissions.

One of the main factors not being discussed a lot about this fight is the huge size advantage that Franklin generally carries in a fight, and how he performs without it. Setting aside questions of skill, Franklin was TKO’d by Lyoto Machida when he fought at 205 pounds, and at the times in the UFC that his opponents neutralized his size (Okami and Silva), he didn’t have the greatest showings.

If one thing came out of Lutter’s weight-cutting fiasco, it was that it showed that Lutter cuts a lot of weight, and I don’t see Franklin having much of a size advantage. If this fight plays out like it’s “supposed” to, Franklin will win a decision on the feet or possibly gain a TKO, but Lutter is perfectly capable and willing to play the spoiler if he gets half a chance, and I think his motivation will be greater than Franklin’s. Going out on a limb, I pick Lutter by submission.

185 lbs.: Kalib Starnes (8-2-1) vs. Nate Quarry (9-2)

Nate “Rock” Quarry looks to continue his comeback from a potentially career-ending back injury with a second straight win. Kalib Starnes looks to distinguish himself from the pack in a middleweight division that gets quite fuzzy in terms of a title picture since pretty much every “name” has already been dispatched by Anderson Silva. I think at this point just about anyone with a few wins in a row and an ounce of marketability has a shot at getting a chance at the champ, and the fighters know this as well.

Quarry, a product of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter, took nearly two years off due to injury following his brutal highlight-reel knockout by then-champion Rich Franklin, and came back late last year to score a KO win over Pete Sell. The problem with that fight was that the knockout came after two full rounds of taking punishment and that Nate was arguably on the verge of being finished himself when he scored the finishing blow, and the fact that Sell has something of a history of getting over-anxious and throwing away fights (See Sell vs. Scott Smith).

Quarry’s standup, in my opinion, is effective, but not terribly accurate or dynamic, meaning that he hits hard but lacks good defense and is predictable in his striking patterns. However, I realize that it’s not entirely fair to judge someone on their first fight back after a layoff, and he did have a very impressive streak of wins under his belt prior to his title bid.

Starnes was a highly-touted prospect on season three of TUF, but bowed out in the semi-finals due to a rib injury sustained during a fight with eventual winner Kendall Grove. The popular knock on Kalib Starnes is that he lacks heart, and if one views his recent fights from that mindset, it is easy to find evidence to support it: Starnes quits due to the rib injury (which coach Ken Shamrock claimed was not severe), tells his corner between rounds against Yushin Okami that Okami is “too strong” before getting finished by strikes on the ground in the third round, and takes a doctor stoppage via cut against Alan Belcher.

However, Starnes has vehemently argued against Shamrock’s analysis, and virtually every fighter to go up against Okami has been shocked at his strength. As for the cut loss, well, Starnes himself said it best when his corner tried to admonish him for quitting and he yelled, “He said he could see my ****ing skull!” Frankly, I tend to believe that the criticism is undeserved.

What we do know is that even though Quarry trained quite a while with Team Quest and has wins by submission, meaning his ground game is most likely solid, he has shown very little willingness or desire to use it. Which is probably just as well since Starnes has a high submission percentage and (I believe) a black belt in BJJ under Royce Gracie.

What I think will be the deciding factor in this fight is that while Starnes seems to have trouble with dynamic and explosive strikers like Belcher, he lasted all three rounds with Chris Leben and won the decision, which leads me to believe that he can handle a fighter who hits hard but doesn’t possess a great variety in his strikes. In fact, it also speaks of that “lack of heart” I’ve been hearing about. I’m taking Starnes by decision.

185 lbs.: Michael Bisping (15-1) vs. Charles McCarthy (10-4)

Michael “The Count” Bisping drops to the middleweight division after losing a contested split decision to Rashad Evans, and looking at the number of times he has been outsized in the 205-lb. division, it was a long time coming. Bisping had a long streak of success fighting overseas in his native England, and enjoyed more of the same coming up through TUF, but has been seeing more narrow escapes and close decisions in the UFC, finally leading to his first loss and his decision to drop down.

“Chainsaw” Charles McCarthy has only two official UFC fights, one ending a spectacular body shot knockout delivered to him by former contender David Loiseau, and the other ending by a rear naked choke victory over Gideon Ray. The main problem McCarthy faces in this bout is inactivity. His fight against Ray was in late 2006, and he has not fought since.

Bisping is unknown at 185, but he appears to be taking the weight off the right way, reportedly just watching his diet more and cutting some excess bodyfat, and McCarthy himself is known for being forced to cut excess weight at the last minute. One would assume that Bisping will enjoy a cardio and power advantage at a lower weight, as well as a marked overage in striking skills.

McCarthy has not looked comfortable on the feet in a single fight I have ever seen him in, and tends to simply walk into his opponents while covering up and work for the takedown, but it is undeniable that he makes the odd approach work for him; he has only one TKO loss on his record and all ten of his wins have come by first or second round submissions.

While McCarthy’s recent claim that his submissions are the best in the middleweight division are a bit far-fetched, he is very dangerous on the ground and has shown a great knack for finding a way to his opponent’s backs. Also, even though he has not fought in nearly eighteen months, who knows what skills he has been honing in that time? McCarthy has a chance, but Bisping has never been submitted and frankly I don’t see this as much more than a showcase for the Brit.

Admittedly Bisping has taken a few lumps in supposed “showcase” matches before, but with his improved wrestling (he now trains with Rampage Jackson) I think he can keep the fight on the feet and notch a TKO or a decision. As a side bet, I will say that if McCarthy wins it will be due to an arm bar during some overzealous ground and pound by Bisping.

155 lbs.: Mac Danzig (17-4-1) vs. Mark Bocek (5-1)

Danzig comes off the most recent season of TUF as a winner at welterweight. Mark Bocek is 1-1 in the UFC and seems to be used as a test for newcomers. This fight breaks down fairly easily in my opinion. Bocek is larger and has impressive submission grappling credentials, but has not shown an ability to apply them as well at the UFC level as he did in smaller shows. Not to mention that Danzig, a natural lightweight, ran through an entire season of (admittedly less experienced) welterweights, some of them much larger than him.

Danzig appears to be the much more well-rounded fighter, even if he is the proverbial “good at everything but not great at anything,” and has also never been submitted. Bocek was TKO’d by Frankie Edgar who is a dazzling wrestler but doesn’t pack a lot of power in his hands. I don’t see a submission happening this time around for Bocek, as Danzig notches a TKO win.