St. Louis Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. The St. Louis Rams, surprisingly enough, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Indy hosts the Rams on Sunday on the heels of a stirring comeback against Houston, proving again that they are a threat to win any game. But what about that awful trend in home games in November?

Point spread: Colts opened as 13-point favorites; the total was 43. (Line updates and matchup report)

OddsShark.com computer says: 28.1-17.1 Colts

Why the Rams can cover the spread

QB Kellen Clemens, subbing for the injured Sam Bradford, looked improved Sunday over his first start two weeks ago, hitting on 20 of 35 passes without an interception, and he had St. Louis tied with Tennessee with six minutes to go. Also, RB Zac Stacy had his second consecutive 100-yard rushing game. And the Rams are 2-0 ATS this year when getting nine or more points as dogs.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Andrew Luck is now 17-7 SU and 16-8 ATS as an NFL starter, after throwing three second-half TD passes to get Indy by Houston last week in come-from-behind fashion. The Colts only rank 19th in total offense, 22nd in total defense and 21st in time-of-possession, but they continue to find ways to win close games. It also helps that they own a +7 turnover margin.

They win and cover at home, but they are just 3-11 ATS at home in the month of November, dating back to 2007.

Smart Pick

The OddsShark.com computer is calling for the Colts to win this game, but for the Rams to cover, and for the OVER to cash in. Statistically speaking, Indy doesn't impress; they're getting out-gained by about 25 yards per game. The Colts also failed to cover the spread the only other time they were favored by double-digits this year. The computer is probably right on this one. Take St. Louis plus the points.

Trends:

Rams are 7-3 ATS past 10 road games

Colts are 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS past 10 home games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.