Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

It may seem a bit counterintuitive, but the last five Indy-Houston games have all played UNDER on the totals. So points may be hard to come by when the AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts visit the disappointing Houston Texans Sunday night in a matchup where both teams come off bye weeks.


Point spread:
The game opened as a PK, but the Colts were slight one-point favorites as of midweek; the total was 45. (Line Updates and Matchup Report)


Computer Prediction
: 28.3-11.4 Colts


Why the Colts will cover the spread

After upsetting the then-unbeaten Denver Broncos two weeks ago, Indy is now 16-7 SU and 15-8 ATS in a season-plus with Andrew Luck at quarterback. Statistically, the Colts don't impress; they rank 12th in offense, 20th in defense and are getting outgained by about seven yards per game. But Indy is more than just numbers. They have a mojo that seems to help them win close games.


Why the Texans will cover the spread

Houston circled the wagons last week, with second-year QB Case Keenum making his first NFL start, and nearly pulled an upset of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in one of the toughest places in the league to play, Arrowhead Stadium.

By the numbers the Texans rank eighth in total offense, 10th in rushing and lead the league in both total defense and time of possession. If they can just avoid the turnovers, they should have a chance.

Historically, they have more than a fighting chance, as they are 8-2 ATS in 10 home games against the Colts, according to the NFL database.


Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is calling for the Colts to win this one rather easily and for the game to stay UNDER its total. But Indy has lived a rather charmed life the last season and a half, and that usually doesn't last for long.

Houston, meanwhile, might be a little banged up, but showed some heart last week, playing KC very tough. Go against the computer and with the home dog on this one.


Trends

The Colts have played OVER in nine of their past 11 post-bye-week games.

The UNDER is 8-1 the past nine seasons for Houston after a bye week.

The Texans are 8-2 ATS in past 10 at home versus Colts.

The past five meetings all played UNDER the total.


Note:
All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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