(Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Beware the ides of July.
Before beginning the “Beltway Series” against the Washington Nationals this Memorial Day weekend, the Baltimore Orioles will finish up their disappointing appearance in the new Yankees Stadium (losing game 1 and game 2 of the three game series). Assuming that the O’s allow for the sweep (because they might), their record will be 16-25 and 10 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East division.
After the Nats, the Orioles will finish the month of May against the AL East leading Jays (27-16) and AL Central leading Detroit Tigers (22-16) in a pair of three game series. Let’s speculate that Baltimore is good for at least one win in each of those series while adding another because the Nationals are “less than or equal to” the Birds in futility (see May 19 or 20 vs. Pittsburgh for visual affirmation). Baltimore would sit with a 20-30 record.
June does not get any easier for the Orioles.
They will begin the month on the road facing the three and four in the AL West, Seattle and Oakland (19-22 and 15-22 respectively), before returning home to face the Mariners once more. Then we move to Interleague Play and the real test, the National League East.
The NL East is highly contested with less than four games separating the first place Phillies (21-17) and fourth place Marlins (19-22). Washington is ten games back.
The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will come to Oriole Park before the Birds leave the friendly confines of Camden Yards (11-11 at home vs. 5-13 on the road) for the armpit of America, Philadelphia. After those nine games, Baltimore gets a break (kinda) when they travel to Miami to face the sub-.500 Marlins.
Luckily, the schedule allows the Uh-O’s to challenge the Nationals in another three game stand at home before welcoming the Boston Red Sox (2nd in the AL East at 24-16). The BoSox are one-and-a-half games behind Toronto for the AL East lead and by this time, they could very well be in first (that’s right, Big Papi’s slump is over).
Two series on the road against the West (four games against the 20-19 LA Angels and another three games versus the Mariners) will culminate with a trip back home to face the Blue Jays once more.
At best, I see the Orioles at 33 wins to 54 losses by the All-Star break. The deficit for the O’s (45-48) before the All-Star Game in 2008 was 10 games back. This year, it could be much, much, worse as the rest of the AL East have stepped up their game.
The combined record of the teams facing the Orioles from May 22-July 12 is 295-304. In that same period, the Jays (296-300), BoSox (296-299), Rays (295-306) will all be facing similar competition. New York (302-300) would be the exception as their combined competition carries a winning record.
With another 74 games left on the schedule following the MLB ASG, the Birds have little room to make up for lost time… barring a complete meltdown of the rest of the division. The best we have to look forward to will be a glance at future talents.
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