UVI: A Reprise

Nathaniel StoltzSenior Analyst IApril 16, 2008

Yeah, I've kind of beaten this topic to death already today, but I just wanted to address a few criticisms of my UVI formula, especially on the hitting side.

First of all, I realized that I put the formula down wrong. It's supposed to be minus the K's and plus the bunts and sac flies. It's fixed now.

Secondly, I've gotten a lot of criticisms due to a rather simplistic treatment of strikeouts and GIDPs. I've also gotten criticized for not including line-drive percentage in my pitching stat, among other flaws.

I've got three answers to this:

1.) I don't have access to more data than just that. If you know where to get it, email me or comment on this and tell me where to find it. I incorporated all the variables that I could find. Yes, you can find LD%, etc. for certain, famous players, but I don't know of any site that can tell it to you for all major leaguers, let alone minor leaguers. And if you can't compare everyone with each other in a certain variable, it shouldn't be used.

2.) I'm always adjusting the formula. I've been sitting on it for two years because I thought it sucked. Now, it's better, and good enough to use as a decent value barometer. Does that mean I'm not out there, trying to make it better all the time? Absolutely not. If you have any suggestions, let me know. The fact is, criticisms are nice theoretically, but unless you can find a source for data like LD% and other hard-to-find stats, let alone find a more accurate way of doing it, it's tough to really act on them.

3.) The fact remains that even if certain variables are off a bit, it isn't tremendously significant. I don't see a real advantage for any type of player according to UVI. The point is, it's a decently accurate measure at this point that has some degree of compatibility for hitters and pitchers, which is unique. It also takes into account park factors and the hitter's level. If UVI has a fairly low margin of error (and I believe it does) that margin doesn't grossly overvalue or undervalue a certain player or skill set. Therefore, it's still basically unparalleled due to the hitter/pitcher compatibility, and its accuracy can only go up from here. 

Remember, I'm a college freshman with a long way to go. You'll see UVI articles quite a bit from here on out; and it may be that I change the formula in different areas down the line. Feel free to give me any suggestions on it as I look to progress this idea.