Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 1, 2013

ST LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 26:   Frank Gore #21 of the San Francisco 49ers breaks the tackle of  Rodney McLeod #23 of the St. Louis Rams as he runs for a second quarter touchdown at Edward Jones Dome on September 26, 2013 in St Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

The San Francisco 49ers host the Houston Texans in a battle of 2-2 teams that expected to be much better at this point in the season.

The 49ers have struggled against AFC South teams, but appeared to awaken from their slumber in a rout of the Rams. Meanwhile, the Texans are smarting from a terrible loss to Seattle.

Point spread: 49ers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 17.9-17.6 Texans

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston blew Sunday's game against Seattle; the Texans played good enough to win, but made a couple of key mistakes, especially that stupid pass by QB Matt Schaub that Richard Sherman returned for the game-tying touchdown.

The Texans rank fourth in offense at 410 YPG, lead the league in defense, giving up just 254 YPG, and should be 3-1.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Fran looked a bit discombobulated in losing back-to-back games to Seattle and Indy, but took care of business last Thursday at St. Louis, as Frank Gore ran for 153 yards and Colin Kaepernick didn't throw an interception.

Maybe, after a bit of turbulence, the Niners are ready to settle in for a long run, starting with the first of five very winnable games. They face a Houston team that has been a money loser on the road (1-5 ATS past six road trips according to the OddsShark.com NFL database).

Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is calling for Houston to win a close, low-scoring game, which would indicate a very tempting moneyline bet. The Texans are probably disgusted with themselves after Sunday's loss, and will seek redemption, while San Francisco is a bit banged up on defense.

Take Houston and the points.


Texans 1-5 ATS past 6 road games

49ers 2-7 SU vs AFC South teams since 2005

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