Talent Not Intangibles Will Lead the Nuggets to Western Conference Crown

Coming into the Western Conference Championship which starts this evening (Tip time 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN), all the pundits that are predicting the Nuggets will win are doing so based on intangibles rather then on a position-by-position breakdown.  They believe the Nuggets hustle, the intimidation factor, and the fact that the Lakers have been taking games off will lift the Nuggets past the 65 win Lakers team.

However, if you look at it position-by-position, the Nuggets are a lot closer to the Lakers talent than many are giving them credit for.

Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Nene

At first glance, the size difference here leans towards the Lakers with Bynum coming in at 7’1" 280 pounds, and Nene being only 6’11" and 260 pounds.  However, size isn’t all that matters when it comes to a strong inside game. 

Nene use his superior quickness and foot speed to offset larger centers making physical tools a virtual wash in this matchup. Statistically, this isn’t even close; Nene is outscoring and outrebounding Bynum by over a 2-to-1 ratio.  I think the Lakers second round matchup was much tougher than the Nuggets, though, so these stats are a bit deceiving. 

With that being said, Nene is playing by far the best basketball of his career and Bynum has struggled against sub-par inside players and still doesn’t look to be 100 percent healthy. 

2009 Playoffs Statistics Points Per Game—Rebounds Per Game—Blocks Per Game

Nene                          12.5                              7.3                      .8

Bynum                         5.6                               3.8                      .8

Advantage: Nuggets

Power Forward: Gasol vs. Martin

Again, the Lakers have a size advantage with this matchup with Gasol coming in at 7’0" 250 pounds and Martin at 6’9" 240 pounds. This is a battle of two totally different power forwards, though. 

Gasol has a finesse European style of play to go up against Martin's smack-you-in-the-mouth-and-step-on-your-throat style.  The Nuggets prefer to play man-to-man with very little double teaming to try and minimize second chance rebounds and open shooters. 

It will be interesting to see how Martin will play against the much larger Gasol.  Statistically, Gasol has a huge advantage in both points and rebounds almost reversing the center's role, as Gasol is outperforming Martin at a 2-to-1 clip.

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