This offseason Celtic forward Glen Davis will sign a new contract, possibly with a new team.
Glen Davis’ greatly improved play as the year wore on, his solid and fairly consistent performance throughout the playoffs, and the uncertainty surrounding Leon Powe makes this a question of interest for Celtic Nation.
But the Celtics are over the luxury tax threshold. Barring unforeseen moves to get below the tax threshold, signing Glen could cost the Celtics plenty. A $5 million dollar contract will cost them $10 million total with the tax.
What are the chances Glen will stay with the Celtics?
Because of the Gilbert Arenas Rule, the Celtics will get final say on whether they want to match any offers to Davis or not. After two years of grooming, the Celtics will most likely match any offers, and keep Glen, even if they then might consider sign-and-trade scenarios (less likely).
Let me first say that much, but not all, of the following information was authenticated by Boston Celtic management.
Here we go:
Because Glen Davis falls under two rules, the Early Bird Exception and the Gilbert Arenas Rule, here are the likely options for Glen.
1) The Celtics can tender a qualifying offer to Glen and wait to match any counter offers from new teams.That qualifying offer is for 125% of his last salary
2) The Celtics next offer can be for the average player salary (MLE value), approximately $5.585 million, though it is not an MLE offer. It is an Early Bird Exception offer.
3) Any new offers from new teams must be for no more than the MLE and can be for up to 5 years in length. So he might also get an offer for less than the MLE but, let’s say for 3, 4, or 5 years.
a) The first two years may not be more than the MLE amount. The third through fifth years can be more if the new team is under the cap and deems Glen worthy of such an offer. Neither scenario seems likely so…
b) Glen may receive an MLE offer from any new team for 1-5 years for up to $5.585 million per year (with 8 percent yearly raises allowed). That a new team would tender a three year contract (or more) seems quite possible.
At that point…
The Celtics can make a financially limited multi-year offer (MLE plus 10% yearly raises only) or stay with an MLE valued single year qualifying offer.
The significance is that a single year offer moves Glen to full Bird Rights next year, allowing the Celtics to make an unrestricted multi-year offer (up to player max) after that year.
Both Glen and the Celtics have to determine what Glen's long term value is and what is in their own best interests.
- To retain their rights to Davis, Glen will get a qualifying offer of one year for 125% of his last salary by June 30.
- Under Early Bird Exception rules, the Celtics next offer would be at $5.585 (or so) from the Celtics.
- New teams can offer up to that same amount for up to 5 years, limited to 8 percent raises annually.
- The Celtics can make their own multi-year offer starting at $5.585 mil. and limited to 10% raises annually.
If Glen accepts a one year offer (not likely) from the Celtics:
1) He qualifies for full Bird Rights the next season and no salary limits (except player max) for any new multi-year contract.
He would only do this if he thinks his value will escalate substantially next year. With a fully recovered Kevin Garnet expected to return, his role will be cut back from starting to role player. It is more likely that Glen accepts some sort of multi-year deal this season to gain much sought financial security that a multi-year deal would guarantee him.
I’ll cover Glen’s performance this season and a projected value in part two.
This article first appeared at Tom Halzack's Celtics Central at the Connecticut Post