High School or College? What's the More Powerful Degree in the NBA?

Every year with the end of basketball season and the upcoming NBA draft, as well as high school seniors looking at colleges there’s talk of players that may or may not have the talent to jump straight from the prep scene to the NBA. 

Only recently was this jump made impossible by the current collective bargaining agreement, as the 2005 draft was the last to include high schoolers.

This year as we near the draft 18 year old prospect Ricky Rubio has sparked my interest in that, were he born in the US he would not be allowed to enter the draft however as he’s from Spain he will likely be drafted this year in the top 10, and possibly even the top five.

The argument that many make to keep high schoolers from jumping to the NBA is that when you’re right out of high school you’re simply not ready.

It is said that players need the years in college to develop their games to an NBA level, and that the amazingly successful players that have jumped from high school to the NBA are the exception, not the rule. Given all of this controversy, I decided to do a little study, and see what the truth is.

Here are my findings:

First, let me outline my study.  I looked at career numbers for players that jumped from high school to the NBA, and the same numbers for players who attended five major college programs throughout the country (Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky, and UCLA). 

These programs have provided their share of superstars as well as busts to the NBA, and all have histories decades long of producing NBA quality players.

What I’ll do here is now that I’ve collected the data, bring out a few numbers and compare exactly who is more successful, those who jump from high school to the NBA, or those that take the college route.

Now, below is a chart averaging career averages of players who have attended one of the schools listed above or came straight from high school. The criteria was simple, they either attended one of these schools or came straight from high school, and they played at least one minute professionally.

I realize that from each school and among those that graduated high school and skipped college prior to their NBA career, there are many who simply don’t ever play and I’ll be taking a look at that after this.

	Pts	TRB	AST	STL	BLK
High School	10.7068	5.11136	1.664	0.665	0.82
Duke	8.67391	3.70217	1.9	0.706	0.47
UNC	9.73621	3.6807	2.134	1.094	0.6
UCLA	7.96912	3.675	1.903	0.745	0.61
Kansas	7.92308	4.11282	1.628	0.584	0.45
Kentucky	8.46078	3.60612	1.927	0.956	0.48

As you can see, those who skipped college average more points, rebounds, and blocks per game than any of those who were a part of any of these five premier programs.

Now this is not really the whole story many will cite examples such as Ricky Sanchez, who was selected 35th overall in 2005 as an example of exactly why you shouldn’t select a high schooler in the draft.

Others will say that for every Kobe Bryant or Lebron James there are ten that won’t make the league. While that’s true in general about the NBA, it’s not true about those who have officially declared for the draft. 

Well, how about instead of telling you I show you?  Below is a chart showing how many players the NBA has on record to have declared for the draft but have never laced up their sneakers and played minutes in a professional game:

	Didn't Make it	Total Declared	%
Kentucky	40	91	0.43956044
Kansas	29	69	0.420289855
Duke	27	73	0.369863014
UNC	36	94	0.382978723
UCLA	32	101	0.316831683
High School	7	53	0.132075472

Now, as you can clearly see the rate of utter failure in the league is more than three times as high if you played college ball at Kentucky than if you skipped college altogether.

In fact the best chance of success seems to be jumping from high school to the NBA, the second best route being UCLA historically as there is only a 31 percent failure rate vs. the 13 percent failure rate with those that jumped directly from high school.

Overall I simply don’t see the argument for going to college vs. jumping straight to the NBA. The statistics going as far back as the 1940’s show that if you have the skills, you should make the jump.

I’ve heard additional arguments that say that coaches don’t have the proper amount of time to scout a player if they jump from high school however my study shows that they seem to do a fine job scouting overall.

With examples like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Kevin Garnett it’s hard to argue with not drafting a player of such incredible skill right out of high school, and also hard to make the argument that they need the experience in college.

Although it should be noted that Kobe made a slow transition, averaging only 7 ppg in his rookie season, but still high school players have given us some of the best that ever played the game.

Moses Malone is the sixth all time scorer, third all time rebounder, and 22nd all time blocker and is the proud owner of three MVP awards. 

In fact, amongst the group of 53 high school draftees there are five MVP awards, and at least 30 All Star appearances.  On a list of high school draftees, you can also find at least seven starters for playoff teams from this postseason.

In short the numbers simply don’t support the argument that skipping college makes any sense, and while the idea seems to what should we believe? The morals that drive us to believe such things as a year of college is necessary, or the numbers that say you’re better off to skip?

Should we let the exception to the rule-someone such as Ricky Sanchez-dictate the rules, or the more common result of someone like Dwight Howard guide the hands that mold the rules of the league? You decide.