Juan Pablo Montoya: Next Few Races Will Tell His 2009 Cup Story

al asifyouknowSenior Analyst IMay 18, 2009

FONTANA, CA - FEBRUARY 21:  Juan Pablo Montoya, driver of the #42 Target Chevrolet, waits in his car during practice for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Auto Club 500 at Auto Club Speedway on February 21, 2009 in Fontana, California.  (Photo by Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR)

The next few races should set the stage for Juan Pablo Montoya's success in the 2009 NASCAR cup series season.

Past history tells us Darlington is the home stretch for the chase, even though there is lots of racing to be done this season, the names you see in the top 12 today will probably be your chase participants.

There may be a late push for the last two places by three or four drivers, but mostly the opportunities to make the chase after Darlington get down to a hope and a prayer.

I'm no NASCAR expert, but I would assume if your sitting today about 200 points from the 12th spot your about toast. Agree? (unless you win three races in a row)

Juan Pablo Montoya has to get top 15 finishes in the next four races, to keep him in the hunt, these four tracks have not been all that kind to him.

He most keep himself within 50 points or so of the chase through this stretch, further down the schedule he will have a chance for some wins. 

Speaking of further down the schedule, Senoma, Daytona, Indianapolis and Watkins Glen are tracks where Montoya has done well with marginal Dodge equipment.

Now with this  powerful Chevy's I feel he has a great chance to win some of those races, I really think he can win an oval at Indy, he was second to Tony Steward in 2007. 

Senoma and Watkins Glen should be two top-five finishes with one of them a win, if this team is making progress as advertised this scenario should not be out of the question. 

This has to be a chase year for Montoya, I really don't see him accepting less, the alternative is to move on to another series where he can get better equipment or maybe be hired by Gibbs or another top team. Again just guessing on what he may do if he does not make the chase.

Again this is not an award winning piece of literature, is just an opinion by a fan and from what I understand everybody has one and I thank God for that.