Mayweather vs. Canelo: Safest Bets for Saturday's Marquee Main Event
Boxing fans will be looking to make a wager on Saturday’s bout between Floyd "Money" Mayweather (44-0, 26 KOs) and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KOs), and the focus on the safest bets has everyone watching the lines.
Who ya got?
All of the following wagers would be the smartest use of your money for Saturday’s fight.
All betting information via Bovada.lv.
Total PPV Buys
The battle between Alvarez and Mayweather this Saturday is one of the most highly anticipated pay-per-views in boxing history, and there is little doubt that it will break the over/under of 1.75 million buys.
Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy Promotions claims that the superfight between the two undefeated champions could draw 2.6 million PPV buys, per Kurt Badenhausen of Forbes.
While that is likely a promoter hard-selling the product during the final build to the show, there should be no doubt that even with the higher prices for PPVs (an average of $70 per buy), the fight should surpass two million buys.
This is the safest bet of the weekend.
Bet to Make: Over 1.75 Million PPV Buys (-140)
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
As for the fans that love to bet on the in-ring action, the safest bet will be the length of the fight. If you have the chance to bet on whether Mayweather and Canelo go the distance, be sure to take a judge’s decision over every other option.
Besides the controversy that surrounded the early end to the Victor Ortiz fight, seven of Mayweather’s last eight fights have ended in decisions.
Add in the fact that Mayweather has been fighting his most defensive style ever over his last two victories, and this bout lasting all 12 rounds is a foregone conclusion unless Alvarez stuns the world and ends it early.
While Alvarez has the power and speed to get to Mayweather, Money’s big-fight experience will keep Canelo one step behind throughout the fight. Expect Mayweather to win yet another unanimous decision.
Bet to Make: Yes, fight goes the distance (-285)
Over/Under 9.5 Rounds
In the same vein as this fight going the distance is the over/under on rounds. The bets are tiered at 1.5, 3.5, 5.5, 7.5 and 9.5 rounds, with each bet getting more favorable as the bout progresses.
Alvarez showed in his last fight with Austin Trout that he can and will go the distance in a marquee bout if needed. With no previous stoppages on Canelo's 43-fight resume, there is legitimate reasoning to believe that this fight will go to the judge’s scorecards.
Even if Alvarez earns a victory in Las Vegas, the result would almost certainly be a decision that forced the fight over 9.5 rounds. While the betting line isn’t ideal to make big money, the safe nature of the pick makes this an easy decision.
Bet to Make: Over 9.5 Rounds (-450)
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