Will Tiger Woods Break Jack Nicklaus' 18 Major Wins Record?

(Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

When Tiger Woods won his 14th Professional Major last year at the 2008 US Open he had finally gotten to within four major wins of Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 wins in Professional Major Golf Tournaments (e.g. "Majors" - Masters, US Open, British Open, and the PGA Championship). 

Being within four of tying a once thought to be an unbreakable record was quite impressive, especially at the age of 32. How impressive? We need to remember that it took Jack until the age of 35 to reach 14 professional major wins. 

One would think at the age of 33 (at the end of the year 2008), and winning professional majors at roughly a 30 percent rate (14 wins in 48 opportunities in his first 12 years as a professional—1997 through 2008—equates to a 29 percent win percentage, that it would be safe to assume that Tiger would most certainly break Jack's record.

(By the way, Jack’s win percentage in Majors in his first 12 years as a professional—1962 through 1973—was 25 percent, 12 wins in 48 opportunities, which is almost as impressive as Tiger’s. There is a common misconception among rampant Tiger fans that Tiger’s win percentage in Majors is way beyond anyone else’s, which this shows is not the case.)  

Assuming Tiger would at least be highly competitive through the age of 40, he would have eight years to win five professional majors.  And with how fit he keeps himself, there is a strong chance he would stay competitive well into his 40s. 

But, fate has stepped in and maybe changed everything. Maybe Tiger's walk towards becoming the greatest golfer of all-time, by winning more than 18 professional majors won't be a certainty, as so many think, and just maybe it won't happen at all. 

Something occurred last year that has now possibly thrown a slight wrench into the works, so to speak, which is the reconstructive surgery on Tiger's left knee and the roughly eight-month layoff (July 2008 - February 2009). 

Tiger must now work to regain his previous winning form (e.g. his competitive sharpness and aura of invincibility) from what, I think I can be safely assumed, is his longest break from golf since he started playing the game at a very young age. 

In addition, because he has had four operations on his left knee, Tiger must find a way from putting so much pressure and torque on it.  This means changing his swing once more (e.g. he must find a way to stop straightening and snapping the left knee). 

Tiger is certainly not a stranger to changing his swing; he has gone through swing changes before (in 1997/1998 and in 2002). The changes to his swing in both cases lead to extended periods of not winning Majors (10 consecutive Majors in 1997-1999 and 10 consecutive Majors from 2002-2004). 

Additional swing changes in 2009 most certainly means, based on past history and simple common sense, a period of not winning majors. In addition, as mentioned early, he needs to regain his competitive sharpness.

Being away from the game and not playing in tournaments for such a long period of time results in losing tournament sharpness.  All professional golfers will tell you that practicing and playing tournament golf are by far two different things. 

Having said all of the above, we come to the opening question that was posed, which is will Tiger break Jack's Major wins record of 18?  The correct answer, in my mind, is we can't say for certain either way. The correct answer is simply maybe.  Nothing in life is a certainty and certainly winning Majors doesn't escape life's laws. 

There are fans of Tiger's that want to say that regardless of this set back with his knee, the related eight-month layoff, and one more attempt at changing his swing, he will march on to breaking the record without almost any doubt (almost 100 percent certainty). 

These rampant Tiger fans insist that short of Tiger dying, being in a plane crash, being ran over by a truck, or falling down a flight of stairs and breaking his neck; he will most certainly break Jack's record.   Anyone that says otherwise is a complete and utter fool. 

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