Who Will Win the NFC South? Your Guess Is As Good As Mine

No division in the NFL exemplifies the salary-cap era parity better than the NFC South. In five straight seasons, the team that finished last one year won the division the next year.  From 2003-2006, every team in the division had a worst-to-first run. The streak was broken last year, but just barely. 

Atlanta was minutes away from a sixth straight worst-to-first division champ, but Carolina rallied to beat New Orleans and wrap up the division in the final game of the regular season. Given the volatile nature of the league and the division in general, there's plenty of reason to believe the NFC South will come down to the wire again in 2009.

It was a quiet offseason for the Carolina Panthers, much to the chagrin of the Panther faithful, but when you're coming off an 11-5 season and division championship, why mess with success? The Panthers made sure to resign Offensive Tackle Jordan Gross, the lynch pin in an offensive line that paved the way for the league's third best rushing attack.

Perhaps the best move Carolina made wasn't a move at all.

They decided not to trade all world pass rusher Julius Peppers so the pass rush should be fierce again, but Carolina didn't improve the interior defensive line aside from third-round pick, Corvey Irvin, this offseason and when you're second worst in the league against the run, that could be a potential recipe for disaster.

Tampa finished third in the division last season, but they might be the biggest enigma in the division. They have no quarterback right now. Josh McCown and Byron Leftwich aren't the answer and I'll go on record saying I think Josh Freeman will be a tremendous bust. 

Derrick Ward was a great pick up for the run game, but the offensive line is just OK.  Kellen Winslow would be a nice pick up ordinarily, but again, who is going to throw to him?

The Bucs built their reputation on defense, but Tampa will have a glaring hole in the defense. Derrick Brooks was the heart and soul of the Buccaneer defense for 14 years making 11 Pro Bowls and nine All-Pro teams. Tampa cut ties with the future Hall of Famer this off-season and filling the void in terms of performance will be hard enough. 

Replacing his leadership will be nearly impossible.  With the architect of the Tampa Two, Monte Kiffin, leaving to join his son's parade of fools in Knoxville, the defense ought to be a big question in the Bay this season.

After two straight disappointing seasons following an NFC title game appearance in 2007, the New Orleans Saints are in the enviable NFC South position of cellar dwellers. Drew Brees put up video game numbers in 2008 and the Saints were the top scoring offense in the league. There is little reason to think the offense won't be explosive again in 2008. 

The Saints couldn't run the ball last year and did little to improve in that area, for that reason New Orleans had better hope the defense is improved or they're going to find themselves in a bunch of shoot-outs again this season.

Bigger than any player acquisition was the hire of Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. Williams was the coordinator of a Super Bowl defense in Tennessee and had top ten defenses three times in four years in Washington. His defensive philosophy revolves around terrorizing quarterbacks, so the pass rush should improve in 2009.

The Saints used free agency and the draft to upgrade a bad secondary. They signed free agents Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper. They drafted Ohio State Corner Malcolm Jenkins 14th overall and will get last year's second rounder, Safety Tracy Porter, back after his rookie season was wiped out due to injury. 

In an already competitive division, the rest of the schedule is brutal all across the South.  Each team has those six heated divisional games, four games against the NFC East and four games against the AFC East. The Saints may have a huge advantage in the games against non common opponents.

By finishing last in the South, the Saints get games with the last place teams in the North and West divisions. For those with short-term memories, those teams would be zero win Detroit and two win St. Louis. 

Carolina gets a road game with Arizona and a home game with Minnesota sandwiched between December road games against the Patriots and Giants. Atlanta gets a road game at San Francisco and a home Sunday night game against Jay Cutler and the Bears. 

Tampa, fortunately, gets Green Bay at home, but has to play a late season road game in Seattle. New Orleans should have two games in hand while the rest of the division will scuffle to split those games.

Last season the NFC South compiled a 27-5 home record which was by far the best combined home record for any division. That's another element to consider when trying to project a division champ. Given the upgrade in competition across the board, it's unrealistic to expect these teams to match that in 2009.

All four teams have major question marks on defense: Can Carolina stop the run?  Can Atlanta overcome its youth? Who will emerge as the leader in Tampa? Is Gregg Williams a miracle worker?

The team that answers the question most successfully will likely walk away with the division title.  In this division, throw out convention and expect the unexpected.