NHL Playoff Analysis: Sizing Up the Flames and the Sharks

A few observations before I talk about the series I have watched close enough to truly analyze...

It is awful scheduling to have the Sharks and Flames have already played two games before the season's biggest star, Alex Ovechkin, has played his first.  And how come the Sharks rented out the HP Pavillion for the opening weekend of the playoffs? Were they expecting to be the fifth seed again?

Credit Randy Carlyle for NOT blaming the penalties assessed to his team on the officials like Mike Keenan did ... more on this later.

Speaking of which, if the officials are actually going to call penalties in the postseason this year (gasp!), the Flyers, Ducks and Flames are in trouble.

Is it unreasonable to talk about blowing up a team that won its conference last year?  The Ottawa Senators replaced their coach and added players who are supposed to have grit during this season, and yet they show no sign of regaining last year's form.

Has there ever been a team as dominant over a foe as the Canadiens are over the Bruins?  They even dominated in the one stat Boston was supposed to have an advantage: hits.

Okay, now to the Flames-Sharks.

If anyone is surprised by the first five-plus minutes of the series, they have not been paying attention.  The Sharks have had a maddening tendency to come out slowly at home. 

They also had nothing to play for in their last two games, and it is impossible to keep the pace they had going. No matter what they publicly proclaimed, they were bound to take their foot off the gas a bit.  More than that, they probably needed to, lest they run out of gas before reaching their goal.

Anyone who thought Miikka Kiprusoff or his team would continue to play inconsistently in the playoffs knows nothing of how much the Cup means to an NHL player.

Anyone who thought after game one, "the Sharks are done," is a fool.  I know, 69 percent of teams who win game one win the series.   But so do a similar percentage of those that win game two.  Know who wins every series?  The team that wins game seven. That's when I will worry.

Statistically, a team that wins any one game of the series has a 57 percent chance of winning because they only have to win three of the others, but their foe has to win four.

But let's get down to brass tacks.  Both teams have been impressive in some ways and have been exposed in others.  Let's examine these.

The Sharks have done pretty well at staying out of the box.  They have controlled play, outshooting the Flames 82-44.  They have gotten strong goaltending, been a force in the face-off circle, and have matched the physical Flames in hitting.  After that first five-plus minutes, their intensity has been there.

Unfortunately, they have shown real problems handling Calgary's forecheck.  This is supposed to be why they traded for Brian Campbell, but he has struggled a couple times at the point and it led to what ended up being the winner in game one.

They are also struggling immensely on the power play (1 for 10 last night) for the second year in a row.  This is not a fluke.  The Stars lit up the defensively mighty Ducks because they sent the puck on net.  The Sharks had an extended five-on-three (including time where one of the Flames had no stick!) but kept passing the puck around the perimeter.

Team Teal is known for looking for the pretty play instead of the gritty play.  There were multiple times Joe Thornton had the puck in a position to shoot and waited for someone to pass to instead.  You would think that after scoring eight goals in his last nine games, he would see the benefit of shooting.

Calgary has been very opportunistic, making the most of their scoring chances even in the game they were shut out. Nabby absolutely robbed them three times in game two.  Their forecheck has also forced many turnovers for San Jose (23 through the first four periods alone). 

Meanwhile, they have been safe with the puck and kept the Sharks mostly on the perimeter.  This has helped Kipper, but he also has been outstanding, stopping 78 shots (.951 save pct.) and keeping his team in the series. 

He is doing so well he is beginning to get in the heads of the Sharks' shooters, as witnessed by Jeremy Roenick missing an wide open side of the net from less than 10 feet away.

However, they have major discipline issues.  I am sorry, Mr. Keenan, but I hope for your sake you are playing the officials.  If you seriously believe the officiating was the reason for all the calls, you might as well not have them at all.

For one thing, I felt like the officials were swallowing their whistles in the entire first period.  Moreover, I can think of only four calls in the entire game that you can even argue, and I will address them sequentially.

1. Patrick Marleau was called for slashing, and he barely even hit the stick of the Flames player.  This ended a San Jose power play early, but I am willing to discount the significance of that because based on their performance the rest of the series, it is unlikely the Sharks would have scored on that Flames penalty kill, anyway.
2. Jerome Iginla was called for a hold on Patrick Marleau.  Holding was ridiculous, but when his right hand came up off Marleau's shoulder, the follow-through struck Patty in the head.  This is similar to the roughing calls in the NFL whenever a QB is struck in the helmet, but I think they are overprotective there and do not advocate hockey making this a roughing. 
3. Owen Nolan had a short-handed breakaway taken away when Matt Carle dove and knocked the puck away and Nolan tripped over Carle's stick.
4. One of the cross-checking penalties looked like a sell job...just like the one Jerome Iginla drew in game one.  I guess in Canada, good for the goose is not good for the gander like it was in Wisconsin, where I grew up.

While the Sharks did not score on any of these power plays, they did lead to additional penalties that eventually resulted in a goal.  But it is hard for me to accept that it would have made a difference of two goals, or to buy into the premise that a team committing eight indisputably legitimate penalties is not to blame.

This lack of discipline is partly the cause and partly the effect of the Sharks' tempo control that lead to the disparity in shots on goal. 

It is clear to me that Keenan was expecting two things that did not happen: the refs to overlook more of the calls and the Sharks to be more taken off their game by this style.  To this point, they have not really been more physical, just more outside of the rules. 

So the upshot is that there are a few games within the games that, depending on how they play out, will determine the victor:

• Calgary's propensity for getting in the box vs. San Jose's inept power play
• Mike Keenan's playing to the media and officials vs. the reality of what is happening on ice
• The outstanding goaltending of both squads vs. the psyches and skill of the opposing offenses
• The Flames' ability to cause turnovers vs. the Sharks' domination of tempo

Game on!