NBA News, Notes, and Observations: April 11, 2008

We're coming down the home stretch of what has possibly been the NBA's best regular season of the last 20 years.

That means it's time for this week's NNO.

1) Finally, I'm impressed.

As much as the national media fawned over the Suns' improved play with Shaq, I was hesitant to consider them a contender, solely for the fact that they had yet to win an impressive road game since acquiring O'Neal. I have to say that the Suns' win over the Spurs in San Antonio was mighty impressive, especially with the play of O'Neal down the stretch.

Mike D'Antoni did Shaq a huge favor by allowing him to sit out the game in Memphis the night before. As Shaq has gotten older, it's no secret his numbers have declined in the second night of back-to-backs. This won't be a problem in the playoffs, since there are no back-to-backs. The question, then, will be about how effective Shaq is with two days' rest as opposed to three days'.

2) We're number six!

Don't put too much credence into tonight's game between the Suns and Rockets in Houston. My guess is the Suns would much rather play the Lakers or Spurs in the first-round than play the Jazz, especially if Andrew Bynum is unable to play.

The Suns have taken three out of four this year from the Spurs and have lost two of three to the Jazz. A loss tonight would all but guarantee the Suns will finish sixth.

Even though there's still an outside chance that the Suns can win the Pacific Division, the Lakers need to only win two of their last three to win the division because they own the tie-breaker.

I know it sounds crazy that the Suns would rather play a Lakers team that took three out of four games from them than the defending champs, but the Jazz have owned the Suns.

If you don't believe me, just read this blog post from Suns' beat writer Paul Coro in the Arizona Republic last week.

3) On second thought...

I'm not changing my mind regarding the Celtics still being the favorites to win the NBA Championship. What I am going to change my mind on is how much more difficult their road to the championship might get.

Most people, including myself, believed that the Celtics would easily peel off eight consecutive playoff victories before their inevitable match-up with the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now, all of a sudden, they are looking at a second-round series with the Washington Wizards--the only team to not only beat Boston thrice this season, but twice.

I'm not going to predict a shocking upset here. The only thing I'll say is that the Wizards don't fear the Celtics. That alone makes this a potentially exciting series. I didn't think we'd see one of those so early in the Eastern Conference.

Side note: Even though it's unlikely the Pacers will catch up to the Hawks, they're only two games back, and a Pacers/Celtics series would also be a little interesting, especially if the Pacers are riding high from their late-season playoff push. Regardless, the Celtics would still win the series in five.

4) Keep your eye on the sales of brooms in D.C. and heart medication in C-Town.

There will be a direct correlation between those two items if the Wizards sweep the Cavs. If you're a Cavs fan, you have to be praying that, if you're going to lose the series to the Wizards, the series at least goes five games.

If the Cavs are dominated by the Wizards, then you can look forward to an entire summer of stories about how the Cavs took three steps back from their appearance in last year's Finals, and LeBron now has a foot-and-a-half out the door.

5) From the "It's his turn" group of MVP Voters.

One of my favorite NBA writers, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo!, wrote an interesting piece on why he's voting for Kobe Bryant for MVP.

You can tell by the article that he doesn't vote for the literal definition of MVP. Instead, he votes for who he thinks is the league's best player. 

He makes an interesting point to those who penalize Bryant for the talent surrounding him when he writes:

"The idea that an MVP has to do more with less is nonsense. For coach of the year, it’s a fairer argument. When Magic Johnson and Larry Bird were winning MVPs in the 1980s, who held their rosters against them?"

The premise of the article is about why Kobe hasn't won the award yet, and how he's judged by a completely different criteria than other players. 

6) A busy off-season in Golden State.

The Warriors' playoff chances look extremely grim. The Nuggets gave them every opportunity to take the last playoff spot, and they couldn't grab it.

This summer brings a ton of uncertainty. The team has to deal with free agents Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Kelenna Azubuike, Matt Barnes and Mikael Pietrus. How do you justify re-signing some of those guys to huge free agent contracts when they missed the playoffs and the Trailblazers and Clippers will both be better next year?

There's also uncertainty surrounding Don Nelson, and whether it's worth it for him to continue coaching when he'll turn 68 next month.

I think it's time to step back and realize that the Warriors aren't really as good as everyone seems to think they are. In reality, they are an exciting team that squeaked into the playoffs last year by winning their last 5 games, upset a weak-minded Mavericks team, and got lucky that they played the Jazz in the second-round instead of getting swept by the Spurs or Suns.

They are what they are: the Western Conference's ninth-best team. The question this summer is whether it's worth keeping the ninth-best team intact and spending big money to do it.

7) How good are the Mavs now?

That's the question you have to ask yourself with the playoffs approaching. Sure, their win in Phoenix on Sunday was impressive, but I'm not nearly as impressed by their win last night over a Jazz team that is only 17-23 on the road.

Are they good enough to do to another team what the Warriors did to them last year? I'm not sure yet, but their season finale against the Hornets next Wednesday might go a long way toward answering that question; at least it will if the game has meaning and both teams don't rest their starters.

Update: With the Lakers now in control of the top seed in the west, the game between the Mavericks and Hornets in Dallas on Wednesday could decide four playoffs seeds. A Dallas victory could move the Spurs into the number two spot and a Hornets win could mean a rematch between the two teams in the first round. If you're Dallas, what do you do? Do you lose the game and play the Hornets or win the game and face the defending champions? If you're a gambler and the Mavs are favored then I'd bet the house on the Hornets. Unless, of course, the Mavs think they've got a better chance against the Spurs.

Update II: Since the Hornets have locked up the number two seed, tonight's game against the Mavs now means nothing to them. For the Mavs, though, a win means they play the Hornets in the first-round and a loss means a match-up with the Lakers. Since the game is meaningless to the Hornets I'm going to guess the Mavs will win.

8) A Rose by any other name...

Despite Memphis' loss to the Jayhawks on Monday night, expect Derrick Rose to start getting more run as the potential top-pick in this year's draft.

Michael Beasley is starting to get put under the microscope, and it seems as if the tide is turning toward Rose going first.

Perhaps it has something to do with Beasley's early exit from the NCAA Tournament and Rose getting the whole spotlight to himself for three weeks.

NBADraft.net already has Rose ahead of Beasley in their latest mock draft.

9) Donnie Walsh is on the clock.

The new Knicks' GM has already made it known that all of his personnel decisions will be made with the free agent class of 2010 in mind.

That being said, look for Walsh to try to trade Stephon Marbury's 2009 expiring contract, along with either Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson or Jared Jeffries, to his old team, the Indiana Pacers, for Jermaine O'Neal and Troy Murphy around the All-Star break next year.

The Pacers would exchange the last year-and-a-half of O'Neal's contract and the last two-and-a-half years of Murphy's deal for Marbury's expiring contract and two-and-a-half years of Jeffries.

The move would save the Pacers a lot of money and odds are they'd immediately cut Marbury. The Knicks' ability to shed one of their longer-termed contracts would immediately make them players in 2010.

10) Keep your eye on the Darius Miles situation.

As if the Blazers' future wasn't bright enough, there's now an increasing likelihood that an NBA-appointed doctor will declare Darius Miles' knee physically unfit to resume his career.

This would mean that the remainder of Miles' contract would be paid by insurance, and his contract would be removed from the team's salary cap after next season. Combine that with Raef LaFrentz's 2009 expiring contract and, suddenly, the Blazers will be the biggest players in the 2009 free agent market.

With none of their young studs eligible for huge extensions until 2010, the Blazers would have enough cap space to go after either one elite free agent or two very good players.

Life doesn't suck for this small market team owned by one of the world's wealthiest men.

If the playoffs started today...

The Western Conference would look like this:

1) Hornets vs. 8) Nuggets

2) Lakers vs. 7) Mavericks

3) Spurs vs. 6) Suns

4) Jazz vs. 5) Rockets

The Eastern Conference would look like this:

1) Celtics vs. 8) Hawks

2) Pistons vs. 7) Raptors

3) Magic vs. 6) Sixers

4) Cavs vs. 5) Wizards