I'm going to dump a lot of data on ya here, so hold on tight.
First the tables. Note the three Cubs lefty starters in the pfx_z (drop ball) group. If you're reading this on Cubs f/x, you can click and sort the columns.
For each group, I picked just the guys with curveballs that had either pfx_x or pfx_z of 8.5 inches or more. In the data below, everything is converted to positive numbers, so lefty and right curves break the same way, and the normally negative numbers for the pfx_z are positive. There are 15 in the Yakker group, 16 in the Sweeper group. Only submariner Chad Bradford appears on both groups. I think I'll re-visit him later. I really want to start getting at the pitch trajectory/arm angle thing somehow. You may have noticed some charts that included pitcher height with release points plotted, but I digress.....
Yakkers
| first | last | mph | pfx_x | pfx_z | # | # | Sw | B | CS | SS | F | X | HR | HR% | SwRt | Whiff% | B:CS |
| Rich | Hill | 73 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 311 | 311 | 120 | 107 | 84 | 28 | 57 | 35 | 0 | 0.0% | 38.6% | 23.3% | 1.3 |
| Brett | Myers | 79 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 158 | 158 | 54 | 61 | 43 | 10 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% | 34.2% | 18.5% | 1.4 |
| Chad | Bradford | 80 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 182 | 182 | 98 | 50 | 34 | 13 | 44 | 40 | 1 | 0.6% | 53.9% | 13.3% | 1.5 |
| Phil | Hughes | 72 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 215 | 215 | 84 | 81 | 50 | 9 | 34 | 40 | 1 | 0.5% | 39.1% | 10.7% | 1.6 |
| Jason | Hammel | 76 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 49 | 49 | 17 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 34.7% | 29.4% | 1.7 |
| Matt | Herges | 75 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 78 | 78 | 25 | 35 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 32.1% | 24.0% | 1.9 |
| Tom | Shearn | 69 | 3.8 | 10.1 | 59 | 59 | 26 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 1.7% | 44.1% | 15.4% | 2.0 |
| Rick | Vanden Hurk | 71 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 34 | 34 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 17.7% | 33.3% | 2.1 |
| Adam | Wainwright | 73 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 242 | 242 | 92 | 104 | 46 | 35 | 30 | 27 | 0 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 38.0% | 2.3 |
| Randy | Wolf | 66 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 20 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 10.0% | 2.3 |
| Barry | Zito | 70 | 1.7 | 11.1 | 135 | 135 | 59 | 55 | 21 | 7 | 20 | 29 | 3 | 2.2% | 43.7% | 11.9% | 2.6 |
| Ted | Lilly | 71 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 241 | 241 | 93 | 111 | 37 | 17 | 35 | 40 | 1 | 0.4% | 38.6% | 18.3% | 3.0 |
| Doug | Davis | 68 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 269 | 269 | 119 | 119 | 31 | 37 | 43 | 38 | 1 | 0.4% | 44.2% | 31.1% | 3.8 |
| Jason | Isringhausen | 79 | 4.4 | 9.5 | 74 | 74 | 39 | 30 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 1.4% | 52.7% | 35.9% | 6.0 |
| Sean | Marshall | 73 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 102 | 102 | 60 | 37 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% | 58.8% | 25.0% | 7.4 |
Barry Zito is Mr. 12-to-6. Tom Shearn is a distant second, with less drop and more sweep. Zito is a freak.
Sweepers
| first | last | mph | pfx_x | pfx_z | # | # | Sw | B | CS | SS | F | X | HR | HR% | SwRt | Whiff% | B:CS |
| Eric | Gagne | 70 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 80 | 80 | 28 | 28 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 35.0% | 28.6% | 1.2 |
| Chad | Bradford | 80 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 182 | 182 | 98 | 50 | 34 | 13 | 44 | 40 | 1 | 0.6% | 53.9% | 13.3% | 1.5 |
| Javier | Lopez | 81 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 96 | 96 | 48 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 0 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 12.5% | 1.5 |
| Bronson | Arroyo | 71 | 11.2 | 2.7 | 120 | 120 | 61 | 36 | 23 | 15 | 15 | 29 | 2 | 1.7% | 50.8% | 24.6% | 1.6 |
| Yorman | Bazardo | 79 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 23 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 39.1% | 44.4% | 1.8 |
| Kane | Davis | 81 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 32 | 32 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 28.1% | 22.2% | 1.9 |
| Andy | Sonnanstine | 74 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 86 | 86 | 41 | 31 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0.0% | 47.7% | 34.2% | 2.2 |
| Joe | Smith | 85 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 55 | 55 | 28 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 50.9% | 17.9% | 2.4 |
| Sean | Green | 88 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 287 | 287 | 131 | 112 | 44 | 19 | 62 | 50 | 0 | 0.0% | 45.6% | 14.5% | 2.5 |
| Matt | Belisle | 75 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 89 | 89 | 34 | 40 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 38.2% | 32.4% | 2.7 |
| Jay | Marshall | 81 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 203 | 203 | 93 | 80 | 30 | 6 | 46 | 41 | 0 | 0.0% | 45.8% | 6.5% | 2.7 |
| Casey | Janssen | 78 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 66 | 66 | 32 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1.5% | 48.5% | 28.1% | 2.8 |
| Vinnie | Chulk | 80 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 23 | 23 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 47.8% | 36.4% | 3.0 |
| Jamey | Wright | 75 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 88 | 88 | 22 | 50 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 36.4% | 3.1 |
| Royce | Ring | 72 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 71 | 71 | 24 | 36 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 33.8% | 41.7% | 3.3 |
| Matt | Morris | 71 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 245 | 245 | 82 | 47 | 24 | 40 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 0.8% | 47.4% | 20.7% | 1.7 |
As promised, today's Victim of the Occasionally Active Cubs' Bats, Matt Morris, makes the cut.
Here are a bunch of line graphs - each one sorted by a particular stat, to show the best-to-least for each group. There are a couple interesting things, and I'll have to go back and look at this across the whole population, not just one extreme or another. And re-evaluate the methodology.
MPH
pfx_z (vertical spin movement - drop caused by spin beyond the effects of gravity and trajectory)
pfx_x (horizontal spin movement)
Swing Rate
Whiff Rate
Balls to CS Ratio
In this last one, Sean Marshall and Jason Isringhausen are the outliers. They do have very high swing rates, too.
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6 months ago
Uhh...Chad Bradford definitely doesn't throw a curveball. Royce Ring doesn't either. Same with Jay Marshall and Joe Smith. They all throw sweeping sliders. I know this for a fact because they all are sidearmers except Ring, and there's no such thing as a sidearm curve. Is this from Pitch f/x?
6 months ago
I think the term you are looking for for the sidearm and submarine pitchers is "slurve."
Chip
6 months ago
The reason I'm missing ID's on some of these pitches is pretty simple - I'm not evaluating each pitcher individually first.
I don't use the Gameday id's that they apply to the PITCHf/x data since they tend to be off (one issue is the failure to distinguis 2-seam and 4-seam fastaballs).
The feedback I've gotten on these pitchers in particular is very helpful. As I mentioned in the article, the methodology is flawed.
Thanks!
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