NHL Playoffs: Sharks-Flames Analysis

This may be the most interesting series in the first round, at least in the superior Western Conference.  

Nashville is totally overmatched by the Red Wings, and the playoff-failing Stars are playing the defending champions who have arguably upgraded last year's roster.

The other series in the West that could be of interest is more of a novelty. Will the Avalanche be able to recapture their glory by reassembling that team (sans Patrick Roy, the most important component) even though the players are in the twilight of their careers?  Or will Minnesota choke the life out of that series with their boring, suffocating trap?

Meanwhile, both the Sharks and the Flames have great goaltenders and blue lines, and they can also score.  Both can play a physical game and have skill and experience. 

Beyond that, Calgary has many former San Jose players (Miikka Kiprusoff, Mark Smith, Wayne Primeau, and longtime captain Owen Nolan), and their GM used to be the head coach of the Sharks. 

The teams met in the conference finals just before the lockout.  Jarome Iginla scored two overtime goals this season to give his team the season series.

But outside of how the series will translate for the fans, how do they match up?

Rhythm: huge advantage for San Jose 

The Sharks have been the hottest team in the league since the end of February. They are 16-2-2 since acquiring Campbell on the trade deadline and having a streak of 20 games with at least one point in the standings before their last two games, when there was nothing left to achieve. 

A lot is made of how well a team is playing down the stretch, but it is actually an overrated statistic. 

On the other hand, a team that has been inconsistent all year like the Flames is at a clear disadvantage, so this matchup easily goes to the Sharks.

Calgary Blue Line vs. San Jose Forwards: very slight advantage to San Jose 

Dion Phaneuf is a monster, and while I believe he occasionally crosses the line, he is enough of a leader not to take stupid penalties. 

I truly believe he can not only provide secondary scoring, especially on the power play, but can shut down anyone he is matched up against.  If I could trade for any one defenseman it would be him because of his perfect mix of grit, skill, physicality, experience, and youth.

He also is not alone back there. Robyn Regehr is a great two-way defenseman.  David Hale, Rhett Warrener, and Cory Sarich are all solid on the blue line, and Aucoin is still a dangerous offensive threat without being a liability defensively. 

Not many teams have a combination of a stud of Phaneuf's caliber and this kind of depth of difference-makers.  Only Anaheim and Detroit have conclusively better blue lines, and Calgary has several great defensive forwards to support this unit, too.

Nonetheless, they will need a fantastic effort to contain the Sharks' forwards.  No team outside of the Eastern Time zone (i.e. Pittsburgh, Detroit, and maybe the Rangers) can even compare to this unit for talent and depth. 

The Sharks have the best two-way forward in the game in Joe Thornton.  He led the team in both goals and assists.  He is one of the best at face-offs in the league, plays physically, and raises the game of everyone around him.  Last year he had a great postseason, erasing doubts about his playoff production.

However, unlike a lot of teams, the Sharks have any number of forwards who can come up big.  They had nine players score at least 10 goals while with the Sharks, and have five with 19+. 

Patrick Marleau, one of the best postseason scorers in the league, has woken up with 19 points in his last 20 games.  Jonathan Cheechoo is the third-best scorer in the league over the past three seasons after the All Star break.

Even fourth-line players score key goals; case-in-point: Jeremy Roenick led the league in game-deciding goals (this counts the shootout) and had ten game winners out of just 14 goals. 

In fact, coach Ron Wilson will have to scratch a forward who has made significant contributions. 

The most likely candidates are enforcer Jody Shelley (probably not a good idea against the team that led the league in fighting), Curtis Brown (a fantastic penalty killer who also has four goals in the nine games since returning from injury), or Patrick Rissmiller (a penalty killer who also has eight goals and nine assists).

San Jose blue line vs. Calgary forwards: even

San Jose has a blue line equally deep and talented as Calgary's.  Brian Campbell may be a finalist for the Nicklas Lidstrom--er, James Norris Trophy.  He can play both ends of the ice and was a difference-maker in the Sharks' season after what looks to be the trade of the year. 

Campbell is every bit the stud that Phaneuf is, although in a different way: he is the defensive force that Phaneuf is passer (that is to say good, not outstanding) and the passer Phaneuf is hitter (outstanding).  He does not have Dion's shot, but Dion does not have Brian's skating ability.

Craig Rivet is a two-way defenseman who is at least as good as Calgary's second-best blue liner, Regehr. 

Douglas Murray is a defensive force but a bit of an offensive liability.  Christian Ehrhoff has blossomed into a great defensive player due to skating rather than hitting, and still has the skill to help on the offensive end. 

The Sharks also have great depth: Kyle McLaren is a hitter who is solid on both ends, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic is young but a good shot-blocker. 

Sandis Ozolinsh and Matt Carle can help on the power play if they can even crack the line-up.  The Sharks' forwards are among the most defensively sound in the league, and will support the blue line at least as well as Calgary's forwards.

Meanwhile, Calgary sports one of the best all-around players in the game in their captain Jerome Iginla. 

He is that rare combination of leadership, skill, and physicality.  He also has a very good supporting cast in Craig Conroy, Kristian Huselius, Daymond Langkow, Alex Tanguay, Owen Nolan, and Matthew Lombardi, all of whom had at least a dozen goals. 

They have enough role-players to keep teams honest, too.  The Sharks' defensive corps will have their hands full, even before you take into account the grit, determination, and playoff experience of this unit (see "intangibles" below).

Goaltending: toss-up (not even, but no predictable edge, either)

Both goalies were studs for their teams, playing in at least 76 games; they will not be worn down in the first round, if at any point this spring.  Both have experience deep into the playoffs, with Miikka Kiprusoff getting past Nabokov in 2004 but Nabby having more trips to the postseason under his belt.

This year, Nabby has played much better and has about a 50 percent shot at winning the Vezina as the league's best backstop.  However, Kipper has recovered from a horrid start and should reasonably be expected to have an outstanding playoff run as usual.

Coaching: advantage Calgary

While Wilson has a lot of playoff success (making the finals while with Washington) and Mike Keenan has had enough failures, only Iron Mike has tasted champagne out of the Cup. 

He also has a reputation for being able to get in the head of opposing coaches, and while Wilson has not shown susceptibility to that, the potential of it must be accounted for.

Intangibles: slight advantage Calgary

The Sharks are not as overmatched in this category as many outsiders might think.  In their past three trips to the playoffs, they have not lost in the first round once.  Over the same number of seasons the Flames have made it past the first round just once. 

The Sharks are also a better road team (they finished with a better record away from home than any team but Detroit had at home), and teams that can handle the road usually fare better in the playoffs.

However, how well the team is playing going into the postseason has been separated into its own category (see "rhythm" above), and Calgary's one trip to game seven of the finals gave them the taste. 

They are also meaner, more willing to play dirty if necessary (witness the thuggery they inflicted on the Red Wings when they saw they could not beat them fairly last postseason), and were in a battle for the playoffs later into the season. 

They also have more veteran players, and while youth may not tire as easily late in the playoffs, there is no doubt experience is more valuable in early rounds before it wears down.

Overall analysis: San Jose in seven

While teams on home ice rarely have a better record in the opening round, the team that owns it usually wins even if the match-up is as even as this one. 

One reason for this is not needing to travel that extra time.  Also, the Sharks were able to rest key players in the last few games and get others into the rotation, all of which is helpful in preventing and overcoming injuries.  That breaks what is essentially a tie.