When I bent my brain this morning as I pondered the many twists and turns that the playoff race for the eighth seed in the West may take, I was left with a headache. After much time working it out with my buddy Marty, this is what I found:
The Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors are currently tied with five Conference games to play, including one in Oakland where the two will face off against each other.
If they end the season with the same record, then it would come down to the head-to-head record.
If Denver wins on Thursday, then they would win the head-to-head tie-breaker, 3-1. If the Warriors win then the season series would be tied at 2-2 and they would move to the second tie breaker, Conference record.
Currently the Nuggets have a 27-20 Conference record while the Warriors have a 26-21 Conference record.
Once again, Thursday's game is huge.
Even if, both, teams win tonight, the Warriors can tie up the second tiebreaker with a win on Thursday Night.
If they finish with the same Conference Record, the next tie breaker would be the team's record against Western Conference playoff teams—this includes teams that are tied for eighth, which, in this case would be the Nuggets and Warriors.
The Warriors currently have a 12-15 record against such team, while the Nuggets are 11-15.
Other than each other, the Warriors have one game against a playoff team (Phoenix) left and the Nuggets play two (Utah, Houston).
If the Nuggets win on Thursday and both teams lose their games to the remaining playoff teams, then it would go to the next tie breaker, the team's record against Eastern Conference playoff teams.
Here is where we finally find an easy winner. Denver only lost four games against the East's best, while the Warriors lost seven.
Is your head spinning yet?
Not only may this be the first time that a 50-win team misses the playoffs, it may also take four tiebreakers to decide who gets the eight-seed.
Now, none of this takes into account Dallas losing four in a row, but that is a migraine for another day!
3 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Anonymous about 1 year ago
"If the Nuggets win on Thursday and both teams lose their games to the remaining playoff teams, then it would go to the next tie breaker, the team's record against Eastern Conference playoff teams."
No, if the Nuggets win on Thursday they will win the tiebreaker because of head to head record.
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Raymond St. Martin about 1 year ago
What I wrote said exactly that. The only way any tie breakers exist after #1 is IF they tied against each other.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
You make this much more complicated than it really is. It will never get beyond the second tiebreaker. If Denver wins tomorrow and they finish with the same record, the Nuggets get in with their 3-1 head-to-head record. If Golden State wins, they'll be up a game in the standings and have the same conference record. If Denver comes back to tie for the same record, then since all remaining games for both teams are within the Western Conference, they will have to have a better conference record than the Warriors.
Oh, and in a three way tie, Golden State loses out no matter what (Dallas is 3-1 head-to-head with them).
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