First let me state that I’m not advocating gambling with this piece. If you're into gambling and can control yourself, then sweet. Personally, I think that placing even a $1 bet on a fight makes it a bit more exciting.
Also I’m not going to bore you with the details of how to gamble or how to get your bankroll or how to maintain it.
If you would like that type of information, go to http://mmajunkie.com/news/1500/where-and-how-to-bet-mma-now.mma and Performity will give you all the insight you need.
Now on to the show.
I’ve been looking at the odds on the fight between Matt Hughes and Matt Serra and I think that the odds makers have the fight way to lopsided.
As we speak the betting line is -270 for Matt Hughes and +210 for Serra. What that means is that Hughes has a nearly 73 percent chance at winning the fight, while Serra has a 32 percent chance at winning. I know it doesn’t equal 100 percent, but it’s not supposed to.
At +210 the way it would work is if you bet $100 on Matt Serra, it pays out $210. The opposite goes for Hughes, you would have to bet $270 to get $100. Personally I think that Matt Serra wins this fight more than 32 percent of the time. I personally think it’s closer to 40 or 45% but at those odds it’s not a smart buy.
You may be wondering why I think Matt Serra is a live underdog and would be a good bet at the +210 odds, well I’ll tell you.
World Class Jiu-Jitsu
Serra is a world class BJJ black belt under Renzo Gracie and has a ton of awards to prove it. He is a Pan Am medalist as a brown belt, won second at the ADCC in 2001, and was second in Mundials in 1999.
He has the skill set to submit anyone at 170 if there is one area that Matt Hughes isn’t known for its his submission defense as evident by his submission losses to GSP and BJ Penn, and Serra has more than those types of skills.
If you don’t believe that this little guy has power then asks GSP. I personally believe that the sole reason GSP has relied so heavily on his ground game to win is because Serra’s power made him gun shy.
Most people will state that Hughes has a reach advantage and size advantage, but so did GSP and Hughes standup is near at the level of GSP. Serra throws nice hooks and good low leg kicks that can more than hurt Hughes if given the opportunity.
Personally, I find it hard to root against him. He is a normal guy who just so happens to be able to hurt you in a ton of different ways.
He seems to be a "heart on his sleeve" type of guy, which makes him a fan favorite, except maybe in Canada.
Enjoy the fight and Serra’s upset victory over Matt Hughes.