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MLB Trade Rumors: Breaking Down Every Colorado Rockies' Odds of Being Moved

David A. CucchiaraCorrespondent IJune 17, 2013

MLB Trade Rumors: Breaking Down Every Colorado Rockies' Odds of Being Moved

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    We’re approaching the halfway point in the Major League Baseball season and the Colorado Rockies continue to remain in contention, just a half a game behind Arizona in the NL West.

    At a record of 37-33, Colorado is exceeding expectations and proving worthy of recognition, even with the injury to All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. The Rockies’ pitching staff sits at an unprecedented 4.07 ERA – good for ninth best in the NL – and their offense is impressive, as they rank second in all of baseball in runs scored.

    With the trade deadline a little over a month away, it’s beginning to look like the Rockies will look to improve their roster in the present, possibly bolstering their pitching to stay competitive and combat injury.

    Here are each Colorado Rockies’ odds of being moved by the July 31 MLB trade deadline.

Todd Helton, 1B

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    Todd Helton, a career .319 hitter, has spent all 17 years of his MLB career in the Rockies pinstripes.

    Helton, 39, is playing out the final year of a three year/ $33.6 million deal and retirement rumors are lingering. Even in an organization based on loyalty, the odds of GM Dan O’Dowd signing Helton to even a one-year-deal are slim.

    The Rockies’ longtime first baseman is batting .250 with six home runs and 26 RBI this season, not bad for a 39-year-old. In the end, it’s his uncertain health and age that will keep him in Colorado this season.

    At this point, it’s looking like Jordan Pacheco might be a better option at first for Walt Weiss.

    Odds: 0 percent

Josh Rutledge, 2B/SS

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    Last season, Josh Rutledge looked like the answer for the Rockies curse to find an everyday, productive second baseman.

    Three months into 2013 and Rutledge is bouncing back and forth between the minors and majors. Currently, Troy Tulowitzki’s rib injury is the only thing keeping Rutledge away from Colorado Springs and on the Rockies’ roster.

    Rutledge is batting a mundane .228 with six home runs and 15 RBI through 188 plate appearances. The power numbers are promising, but his .285 OBP is not MLB worthy. Rutledge is currently drawing no interest from any MLB teams and deservingly so.

    However, Rutledge is still 24-years-old and was a third-round pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, giving him value and a high ceiling.

    While the young shortstop has the potential to make a nice centerpiece in a deal, Rutledge is too valuable to the organization at this time to warrant a trade. If a deal surfaces, the Rockies would be looking to get a lot in return.

    Odds: 10 percent

Troy Tulowitzki, SS

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    Before breaking his rib in last Friday’s game, Troy Tulowitzki was well on his way to his first NL MVP Award.

    A product of early season trade rumors, Troy Tulowitzki proved the Rockies need him to compete as he batted a cool, calm and collected .347 with 16 homers and 51 RBI. Even injured, his 1.048 OPS leads the NL.

    The Rockies organization has said time and time again that Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are not available. This season with the Rockies record being what it is and the shortstop’s injury proneness, the chances of a package deal for Tulowitzki being formulated isn’t as high as it was last season.

    If the Rockies severely tail off in the standings later in the season, rumors may surface regarding the availability of Tulowitzki.

    Odds: 5 percent

Nolan Arenado, 3B

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    To talk about the Rockies possibly trading their third base protégée Nolan Arenado would be a waste of time.

    The 22-year-old top prospect has had his fair share of ups and downs this season, but it’s naïve to expect perfection from any midseason call-up.

    Arenado is batting .268 with five homers and 19 RBI. He also has come up with some clutch hits for the Rockies down the stretch as he has 10 hits in 35 at bats with runners in scoring position.

    Odds: 0 percent

Wilin Rosario, C

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    One of the Rockies most prized talents over the last two seasons has been their 24-year-old catcher Wilin Rosario, who’s climbing up the ranks as one of MLB’s most premier backstops.

    Rosario is batting .257 with 11 homers and 35 RBI this season.

    In a league where offensive and defensive catchers are a commodity, Rosario is looking like the next candidate to receive a deal from the front office in the next year. That being said, teams haven’t publically expressed any interest in Rosario because it would be senseless for O’Dowd to move his slugger.

    Odds: 1 percent

Carlos Gonzalez, LF

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    Carlos Gonzalez is usually grouped in the same sentence as Tulo’s in terms of availability.

    Back in April, the Mets were said to have been monitoring the availability of Gonzalez, but O’Dowd hasn’t changed his mind about keeping his All-Star outfielder.

    Cargo is batting .316 this season with 20 homers and 56 RBI.

    Gonzalez will play a pivotal role this season for the Rockies up until Tulowitzki’s return from the DL. Trading the outfielder at this point would make little sense, but one can argue he’s crested Tulo in terms of value based strictly on injury proneness.

    If the Rockies consider making a move for a big name starting pitcher at the deadline, there’s a chance Gonzalez could be part of the deal. However, like Tulo, the organization continues to hold their ground on his availability.

    Odds: 15 percent

Dexter Fowler, CF

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    Dexter Fowler is having an excellent start to the 2013 season and is showing uncharacteristic power numbers.

    Fowler was discussed in intense trade talks this winter, but nothing substantial ever surfaced. The Rockies decided to hold on to their 27-year-old outfielder and it’s paid off thus far.

    Unlike Cargo and Tulo, the organization has yet to publicly announce trading Fowler is entirely off the table. If the Rockies were to make a deal for a pitcher before the deadline, Fowler would arguably be the most likely candidate to include in a move.

    Fowler is batting .301 with 10 homers and 26 RBI this season, providing a threat on the base path as well with 12 stolen bases.

    It’s not time to take Fowler off the trading block just yet.

    Odds: 30 percent

Michael Cuddyer, RF

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    Michael Cuddyer is the player no one seems to be talking about this season.

    The 34-year-old outfielder is off to the best start of his career with a .340 average, 10 homers and 38 RBI. His role has been overshadowed by the production of Gonzalez and Tulowitzki in keeping the Rockies afloat in the NL West.

    He’s played a crisp right field and first base and is batting .354 with runners in scoring position…all of which make him a perfect candidate for a midseason trade.

    Cuddyer is in the second season of a three-year/ $31.5 million contract with the Rockies and could be a key trade chip in bolstering the rotation.

    While rumors have yet to surface, don’t be surprised if Cuddyer is suiting up for another team come August.

    Odds: 40 percent

Jhoulys Chacin, SP

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    After a poor start to June, Chacin has been dominant in his last two starts, lowering his ERA to 4.26.

    The ace of the Rockies rotation, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be included in a deal considering his youth and winning record at home.

    Chacin is 5-3 with a 4.26 ERA and 48 strikeouts, thus far. His numbers aren’t what the Rockies were expecting out of the 25-year-old, but in Coors Field, it’s good enough for the time being.

    Odds: 1 percent

Jorge De La Rosa, SP

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    Jorge De La Rosa has quietly been one of the most consistent and valuable arms for the Rockies over the last six seasons.

    This year, he’s off to one of his better starts in a Rockies uniform with a 7-4 record, 3.49 ERA and 53 strikeouts.

    After exercising his player option last season, it’s certain De La Rosa wants to be in Colorado and, from the numbers he’s posted over the last three months, O’Dowd is happy to keep him.

    At this point, De La Rosa is the only competent lefty on the Rockies staff, so it’s unlikely he’ll be on the move any time soon.

    Odds: 1 percent

Jeff Francis, SP

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    Jeff Francis remains in the Rockies rotation simply because he’s a southpaw.

    In terms of being dealt, Francis’ chances are slim; however, in terms of being moved, he’s almost a sure bet if his ERA sits in the upper fives by the All-Star break.

    Francis has shown flashes of brilliance over his last five starts, holding the Cubs to one run in six innings back in May and the Nationals to two runs in six innings last Thursday. However, he has failed to stay consistent down the stretch.

    Francis’ ERA currently sits at 5.87 with 41 strikeouts.

    The 24-year-old left Drew Pomeranz, who they acquired from Cleveland in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal, is 7-1 with a 4.35 ERA and an impressive 93 strikeouts for Triple-A Colorado Springs. If Pomeranz can lower the ERA and his walks, Francis could be looking at a minor league demotion or even a release to make room for Pomeranz.

    Odds: 70 percent

Juan Nicasio, SP

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    Inconsistency and the inability to pitch more than six innings has plagued Juan Nicasio this season.

    After the Rockies released the struggling John Garland last week, Nicasio’s chances of avoiding being moved to the bullpen increased. But he still has a lot to prove in the coming weeks.

    With a few good pitching prospects in Chad Bettis and Tyler Anderson in the minors, don’t be surprised if the Rockies consider placing Nicasio in a trade package. However, no teams have openly expressed interest at this point.

    All signs point to Nicasio staying in Colorado for the remainder of the season, but if a team expresses interest, the organization should make him available.

    Odds: 10 percent

Tyler Chatwood, SP

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    Tyler Chatwood is quickly becoming one of the Rockies best pitchers this season and is solidifying his spot not only on the roster, but in the rotation.

    Chatwood is 4-1 this season with a 2.33 ERA and 31 strikeouts in seven starts. He’s kept the Rockies in games with a 1.69 ERA when the team scores five runs or less.

    Chatwood isn’t going anywhere.  He’s a key piece to the Rockies rotation moving forward and a major reason they’re competing for first in the NL West.

    Odds: 0 percent

Utility Players’ Odds of Being Dealt

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    Eric Young Jr., OF

    Eric Young Jr. was designated for assignment last week, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Young was batting just .242 off the bench.

    His switch hitting capability and versatility to play all three outfield positions will land him a spot on some team’s bench in the coming weeks. Look for him to be on the move.

    Odds: 75 percent

     

    Tyler Colvin, 1B/OF

    Tyler Colvin was quietly one of the most underrated players of last season. This season off the bench, he’s batting .304 with three homers and nine RBI in just seven games!

    Weiss should give Colvin more playing time, allowing veterans like Helton and Cuddyer to stay healthy. He’s doing well enough at the dish where he could be used as a chip to acquire pitching.

    Odds: 20 percent

     

    Jordan Pacheco, 1B/3B/C

    The Rockies like Pacheco’s versatility to play the infield and catcher. He’s batting .264 this season with one homer and 17 RBI and has been there most used man off the bench.

    Pacheco has been too valuable this season to warrant a trade.

    Odds: 10 percent

     

    Jonathan Herrera, 2B/SS/3B

    Jonathan Herrera has been uncharacteristically shaky at times in the field this season. He’s been patient at the plate and managed a .284 average off the bench.

    There’s always a chance a guy like Herrera could be included in a deal at the deadline and his current numbers give him value off the bench.

    Odds: 20 percent

     

    Yorvit Torrealba, C

    Yorvit Torrealba has been a solid defensive catcher during his time in Colorado. This season, he’s managing to do it with the bat as well, batting .299 with eight RBI.

    The Rockies are undoubtedly comfortable with Torrealba as a backup, especially after they traded Ramon Hernandez away.

    Odds: 5 percent

     

    DJ LeMahieu, 2B

    DJ LeMahieu is batting .267 with four RBI this season. He’s found his way into 29 games and has been masterful in the field, thus far.

    Odds: 15 percent

Bullpen Pitchers’ Odds of Being Dealt

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    Rafael Betancourt, CL

    Rafael Betancourt has been one of the better players above the age of 35 in the majors over the last few seasons.

    This season, he’s 11-for-12 in saves and is wielding an era of 3.20, higher than usual but effective.

    This season is the last year of Betancourt’s four-year deal with the Rockies and with Rex Brothers statistically the most dominant reliever in baseball at this point, a trade would absolutely make sense.

    At the beginning of the month, Colorado placed Betancourt on the DL with a groin injury. His health (or lack thereof) could be the only thing keeping him in Colorado for the remainder of the season.

    If Betancourt remains sidelined for another three to four weeks, his chances of being dealt are slim to none. But, if he returns, it would be in the Rockies best interest to shop him.

    Odds: 40 percent

     

    Rex Brothers, RP

    Rex Brothers has been one of the better relief pitchers in all of baseball this season. His 0.30 ERA is the best in baseball for pitchers with 20-plus innings of work.

    The injury to Betancourt has landed him the closers role and the opportunity to showcase his talent in the ninth, possibly even win the job upon Betancourt’s return.

    The Rockies likely will not be answering calls regarding Brothers for the remainder of the season.

    Odds: 1 percent

     

    Adam Ottavino, RP

    Adam Ottavino has pitched well for the Rockies out of the pen this year, posting a 1.70 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 37 innings pitched.

    Just 27, Ottavino could be used in a deal before the deadline to perhaps acquire a starter, but no teams have expressed interest at this point.

    Odds: 10 percent

     

    Wilton Lopez, RP

    Wilton Lopez, the Rockies offseason acquisition for Houston, has failed to mirror his 2012 numbers, posting a 4.25 ERA and just 21 strikeouts in 36 innings.

    Teams could take the Coors Field factor into account when shopping Lopez and he could be moved by the deadline.

    Odds: 30 percent

     

    Robert Scahill, RP

    Scahill has shown flashes of brilliance and struggled at times. He’s posted a 4.70 ERA in 15.1 innings this season.

    It’s not likely Robert Scahill is moved before the deadline.

    Odds: 10 percent

     

    Chris Volstad, RP/SP

    Things just haven’t clicked yet for spot starter Chris Volstad. After struggling mightily in Chicago last season, a move to Coors Field hasn’t and will not improve his repertoire.

    Another bad outing or two and Volstad will be on his way to free agency.

    Odds: 80 percent

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