NHL Awards

There is an important distinction between an analysis and a prediction.  In this column, I will both advocate for who should and predict who will get each trophy the NHL awards, other than those that are assured by statistics--i.e. the Richard goes to Ovechkin for having the most goals.  In most cases the deserving person wins, but perhaps the finalists are not the top three.

Last week, I made a case for Sharks who were deserving of awards, but in this case I will be objective, as I was in my Stanley Cup predictions last night.

Conn Smythe--Henrik Lundqvist.  To me this is the most important trophy since it denotes the best player at the most critical time, the play-offs.  It has in all but two case gone to the champion and in the others went to the runner-up (most recently Jean Sebastien-Giguere in 2002). 

Since my pick last night was the Rangers, that pretty much narrows it down to Jaromir Jagr, Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, Henrik Lundqvist, and maybe Brendan Shanahan.  (They never give it to a guy like Marek Malik, who is tops in the league in +/- over the last two seasons--it hasto go to a scorer or goalie.)  With his history of clutch goals, Drury is too obvious a pick, and Jagr is too soft to come through when grit prevails.  I am going to predict Lundqvist will be the one to carry New York through the East.

Hart: This is (and should be) a three-horse race between Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, and Joe Thornton.  I really think Joe should win this for his contributions on both ends of the ice, but defense and assists combined are not as sexy as goals, and no one had more of them than Ovechkin.  He also carried a team to the playoffs that was not expected to make it, and no one is going to look at the fact it came in the weakest division in league history.

Norris:the three finalists should be Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Campbell, and Zdeno Chara.  Campbell transformed the Sharks and is great on both ends of the ice, and Chara was instrumental in the Bruins' turn-around.  No explanation is necessary as to why Lidstrom is on the list.  Pronger does not belong because he is now the Ducks' second best defenseman, and Gonchar does not belong because he still is mostly an offensive threat. 

Lidstrom will win, and I am okay with that.  But I would not be surprised if the other two finalists are actually Gonchar and Pronger instead of Campbell and Chara, and that is a crime.

Vezina: the most important position in any sport is goaltender in hockey.  Pitchers mean as much in baseball, but there are at least a dozen of them, not two or three.  The finalists should be Nabokov, Brodeur, and Luongo; the first two are the only two serious candidates and they will be finalists for sure. 

Most of the buzz I am hearing is that Brodeur has an edge because he is more established, but I cannot see voters not giving a single award to a member of the San Jose Sharks after they finished with the second-best record in the league.  This is the only award likely to go to the Teal, so I going to say Nabokov gets it.  He has more wins and shut-outs and a better goals-against average than Brodeur, so he should win it.

Selke:defense for the forward position is underrated, and this is a hard one to predict because defensive prowess does not get national attention.  I can tell you who among the Sharks is the best defensively, but that is harder on other teams.  One could look at the usual suspects: Jere Lehtinen, Rod Brind'Amour...but I hope the voters are a little more thorough than that. 

Danny Heatley and Daniel Alfredsson both are great on both ends of the ice, with good +/- rankings, and would be good choices.  But they also will split votes, and the guy to me that stands out tied Alfredsson in short-handed goals and assists this year on a non-play-off team: Patrick Sharp.  The other finalists will and should probably include Alfredsson, and I am going to go with Brendan Morrow, a physical forward with a strong +/-.

Adams: this is the most interesting discussion, as over a fifth of the league's coaches are in the running.  Let me start with those who have no chance to win and why, as well as why they should get consideration, and work my way to the winner:

Ron Wilson: I made this case a few days ago because of how strongly the Sharks finished and the number of struggles he has weathered.  The reason he will not (and should not) get it is this team was supposed to do well.

Denis Savard: he took a young team on a Blackhawks' franchise with a long history of failure and made them the third-last team eliminated in the toughest conference.  But he did not get them there, and some of the others on the list did--voters won't give him a long enough look.

Craig MacTavish: the Oilers were in the most competitive division with a gutted roster and coming off a bad year.  Yet they were one of the hottest teams at the end of the season and the best team in the West not in the playoffs...but since they did not make it, he will not get strong enough consideration.

Jacques Lemaire: see Wilson above, but Minnesota finished just ten points behind the Sharks and were projected as a borderline play-off team, not a strong contender like the Sharks.

Lou Lameriello: the Devils were also gutted, and have home ice in the division with the best overall record.  He won't win because it is assumed that since he has Brodeur and they are in it every year, his job is easy.

Barry Trotz: yet another team gutted in the off-season, and they did make the playoffs.  They have, however, a worse record than Carolina, who did not make it in, and were in the second worst division by record this year.  Enough people expected this team to make it to the post-season that this is not an earth-shattering accomplishment.

John Stevens: took the Flyers from worst team in the league to a #6 seed in a great division, but I think a lot of that was expected because of the free agent acquisitions.

Claude Julien: this was a team that was bad last year and therefore did not have high expectations but is now in the playoffs despite playing in a tough division.  While they did make a few roster upgrades from last year's team, the primary change is on the bench.  However, it should be noted they were projected as a playoff team last season and they are the weakest team in the East.

Bruce Boudreau: he took a Capitals team that was in the bottom 10% of the league after Thanksgiving and won the division with them; granted it is the worst division possibly in the history of hockey, but he will be rewarded for it anyway.  And that is probably the right call.