The Effects of the Officials in Super Bowl XL Using Win Probabilities

Pop quiz: Who said regarding the referees, “I felt they were cheating us,” and “The way the refs were going, I wouldn’t have trusted them in overtime,” and that they were “[taking] the game away from us”?

If you answered anyone from the Seattle Seahawks, try again. The answer is former Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Joey Porter, who said that after the officials overturned Troy Polamalu’s fourth-quarter interception against Indianapolis in the AFC Divisional Round.

The NFL must have heard his message.

Three weeks later, the Seahawks were not only facing the Steelers in Super Bowl XL, but also Bill Leavy and the rest of the officiating crew. In the biggest game on the biggest stage, the officials made so many questionable calls that benefited Pittsburgh, all they were missing was a Steelers’ helmet.

Seattle was called for seven penalties for 70 yards, and Pittsburgh was called three times for 20 yards.

Said Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren, “I didn’t know we were going to have to play the guys in the striped shirts as well.” Jason Whitlock wrote about the officials, “Am I the only one who would like to hear them defend their incompetence?” Michael Smith said that the officials were “giving [Pittsburgh] the game.”

By all means, Seattle was robbed of the Super Bowl, or at least a shot of winning.

In order to quantify the effect of the officials on the game, I turned to the win probability calculator on Advanced NFL Stats, which I previously used to figure out when to go for the two-point conversion.

By looking at the win probabilities of Seattle prior to and after each of the seven penalties handed to them, I could see exactly how much the Seahawks’ penalties hurt them.

Before I get to Seattle, I’ll show the effects of Pittsburgh’s three penalties as a baseline. PRE shows the Steelers’ situation before the penalty occurred, and POST shows what happened after the penalty.

Expected points come from the win probability calculator, and end result is the final outcome of the drive in which the penalty occurred.



Pittsburgh’s penalties lost them an average of 2.7 percentage points on their win probability and less than half an expected point.

How does compare to Seattle? A chart showing the seven penalties called on the Seahawks and the change in their win probability is below, with a description of each penalty and its effect below that.



First penalty—first quarter, 5:53 left, offensive holding: After an 18-yard pass to Darrell Jackson, Seattle was called for holding. The Seahawks went from first-and-10 from the PIT 23 to third-and-16 at their 49. They were well in field goal range prior to the holding call, but had to settle for a punt after failing to convert the long third-down try.

Second penalty—first quarter, 2:00 left, offensive pass interference: Darrell Jackson caught a 16-yard pass in the end zone for an apparent touchdown. But the back judge—Bob Waggoner, who is a Pittsburgh native—called a late penalty on Jackson that pushed the Seahawks back to a 1st-and-20 on the PIT 26.

Seattle kicked a field goal, but if the touchdown to Jackson had stood, the Seahawks would have been driving for the game-tying touchdown on their final possession (which ended on an incompletion on 4th-and-7 from the PIT 23 with eight seconds left in the game).

Third penalty—second quarter, 14:44 left, offensive holding: Seattle returned the Steelers’ third punt of the game 34 yards to Pittsburgh’s 46-yard-line, but holding was enforced at the SEA 35.

The Seahawks took possession at their own 25 and ended up punting at the PIT 47 on fourth-and-two. The 29 yards Seattle lost would have put them at Pittsburgh’s 17 with a chip-shot field goal if there had been no penalty.

Fourth penalty—second quarter, 1:46 left, offensive holding: The Seahawks committed a holding penalty on the kickoff return following Pittsburgh’s first touchdown, which lost Seattle only 10 yards.

Though that may not have seemed like a big difference—what with just 1:46 left and the ball on Seattle’s 27 after the penalty—the Seahawks managed to drive down to Pittsburgh’s 36 and miss

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