How to Pick a Kentucky Derby Winner

Don QuixoteApr 30, 2009

While some choose a horse by name, number, or color of the owner’s silks, most people arm themselves with all available information on the horses. Here are some key factors to consider when evaluating a horse.

How the horse finishes: Review the videos of each horse’s last race. Was he running strongly and in a straight path at the end of the race, even if he did not win? Or was he weaving in the stretch and looking leg weary? The Derby is longer than any of the prep races for it, and a horse must finish strongly to win it.

Running style: Horses with good tactical speed and the ability to stalk tend to do better than horses who charge to the lead or come from way behind late in the race.

Morning workouts: If a horse has good morning workouts at Churchill Downs this week, it suggests both, that he is in good form and likes the racing surface.

Post Position: A horse who starts from an inside post position may be caught in traffic. A horse drawn outside may have to go wide on the turns. The best posts are between No. 5 and No. 16. While plenty of horses have won from the other posts, a poor post has to be factored negatively into your analysis.

Jockey experience: The media glare during Derby Week is overwhelming, and the large field gives ample opportunity for an inexperienced rider to compromise his horse’s chances. An experienced jockey who has been to the Derby before is less likely to crack under pressure.

Trainer experience: The road to the Kentucky Derby is long and arduous, and it takes a skillful trainer to bring a horse to the race healthy and in peak condition.

Track condition: Rain on Derby Day can turn the dirt track into mud; some horses will fare well on it, and others will do poorly. The Racing Form’s “Past Performances” will offer some clues about how each horse will do.

Pedigree: Some horses run well at short distances, while others thrive at longer distances. Until recently, pedigrees provided strong clues about how a horse would run at the Kentucky Derby distance. But while still an important factor to consider, a questionable pedigree, by itself, is no longer reason to eliminate a horse from consideration.