NHL Post-Season Prognostications

Like James Douglas Morrison once sang, “the West is the best.”  I believe the best three teams in hockey are in the West, and any of the top seven are at least an even match against the Eastern Conference “powers.”  Thus, I will start my predictions for this year’s Stanley Cup playoff run in the stronger conference.

Red Wings-Predators: don’t let the gap between these teams fool you.  Detroit was challenged by the games within their division, and Nashville has enough of its players remaining from their three previous playoff appearances to compete.  However, in the end the depth, talent, and experience of the Wings will be too much: Wings in five.

Sharks-Flames: the Sharks showed great fight and intensity against Dallas in their season finale—good preparation for their playoff series against the feisty Calgary Flames.  However, let us hope they do not lose sight of the goal like they did in blowing a 2-0 lead today, becoming more interested in fighting than playing, because the Flames tried to bait the Wings into a brawl last year.  The Flames are as good on the blue line and in net as San Jose, and have enough scorers to stay with the Sharks if they can take them out of their game.  This year I believe San Jose has added the mental toughness it will take: Sharks in seven.

Wild-Avalanche: this is going to be a great series.  Minnesota is the most fundamentally sound team in the league, and they have solid forwards, defense, and goaltending.  Colorado has incredible experience and a plethora of playmakers if they can stay healthy, even if many of them are past their prime.  Both goalies are question marks in the post-season, whether because of limited appearances or inconsistent play since the lock-out.  However, the skill and experience of the Avs will carry them to a series win here: Avs in six.

Ducks-Stars: the Stars were impressive in keeping focused on the game during today’s Ultimate Fighting exhibition against the Sharks; that will be good practice for them against the dirtiest team in the West.  They have a great goaltender (three shutouts in last year’s first-round loss to Vancouver!) and many skilled skaters.  But without Sergei Zubov, I have a hard time believing they can match the best blue line in hockey and one of the league’s best goaltenders.  They already have trouble scoring and Anaheim has shown more mental toughness to date: Ducks in six.

Canadiens-Bruins: I would love to tell you that the regular season was a fluke, but the Bruins may not even belong in the playoffs.  Tim Thomas is a battler but remains a question in goal, and they lack the skaters to overcome that.  Montreal is not the best team in the East as their record would indicate, but they play solid fundamental hockey and are deep enough to make quick work of Boston: Habs in five.

Penguins-Senators: I want to believe Bryan Murray can use Ottawa’s talent and superior experience to rally them to an upset, but at some point they have to show they have the wherewithal.  The Penguins have more scoring options than any other team in the league if Sidney Crosby stays healthy; that can overcome shortcomings in net (especially since Ottawa also has this) and on the blue line: Pens in five.

Capitals-Flyers: these are two teams headed in the opposite direction.  In late November the Flyers looked like a potential top seed in the East and the Caps looked like a draft lottery team.  Now the Caps are hosting a first-round series and look stronger.  Philadelphia is no team anyone wants to have to play because they will beat you up.  Despite injuries they have a couple good scorers left and are solid enough in net and on the blue line to compete, but have too many injuries to win the series: Caps in seven.

Devils-Rangers: the Devils have my first choice in net and that is the most important asset; they also have superior experience, the second biggest asset.  The Rangers have more skating talent and added players known for clutch post-season performances, and their goalie is also playoff-tested.  They were my preseason pick in the East and have been hot enough that I will stick with them in this round: Rangers in six.

Red Wings-Avalanche: what hockey fan would not want to see this clash of the (former) titans, with all the animosity they share!  I still think Detroit relies too much on aging players at key positions who may break down, but the same can be said of the Avs.  In the end the Wings have too much if Dominic Hasek stays in net: Wings in six.

Sharks-Ducks: Anaheim has the best defense in the league and has superior grit and experience.  However, the Sharks are hungry and have far superior skill among their forwards; more importantly they are finally mentally and physically tough enough to make it past their nemesis: Sharks in seven.

Canadiens-Rangers: New York is stronger than Montreal at every position, but the Habs play more consistently and will get a couple wins: Rangers in six.

Penguins-Capitals: Crosby has gotten the better of Alex Ovechkin at every turn outside of losing out to him for the Calder Trophy.  This series will be no different, mostly because his team will give him a lot more support.  They are much deeper at forward, at least as accomplished on the blue line, and arguably better at the goalie position.  They also have been more tested during the regular season: Pens in five.

Red Wings-Sharks: this is a really tough series to call.  Detroit won this last year because they are a better puck possession team and San Jose could not adjust because that is their style of play, as well.  That remains true by a narrow margin, but the Sharks are more physical and younger.  Detroit has an edge on the blue line, and while I am uncertain that Hasek can remain healthy at his age, the same can be said about Nabby with all his games played.  I am surprising myself with this prediction: because San Jose will have to go through two bruising teams and travel once more over the three time zones than Detroit: Wings in seven.

Penguins-Rangers: Pittsburgh is clearly more talented, but it is always difficult to navigate uncharted playoff territory.  They also have the added disadvantage of having not truly been tested in the playoffs to this point.  New York has superior goaltending and will get key performances from Scott Gomez and Chris Drury: Rangers in six.

Red Wings-Rangers: by this time, Nicklas Lidstrom will be 38, Chris Chelios 46, and Hasek 43.  Six other players Detroit dresses will have their 35th birthday in the rear-view mirror.  After the difficulty and travel of the Sharks’ series, I foresee a team that is out of gas and possibly also missing key players: Rangers in six.