Beer Goggles, Fantasy Flameouts, and the NFL Draft

Another NFL Draft is in the books, and most fans (except those in Oakland) are excited to see how these new toys fit into their favorite team’s system. Sure, everyone looked good during the endless hours of television coverage, but the reality will hit home soon enough: Most of these guys will flame out.

The Draft is also the beginning of the 2009 fantasy football season, so it’s time to examine what these picks mean to you as a fantasy player.

It’s not just about how guys such as running back Knowshon Moreno (RB) fits in Denver’s system (fantastically), but also how Eugene Monroe (OT) will help Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew (RB) become a better rusher.

Defense is part of the fantasy game as well, so we’ll take a look at how the Patriots multiple second-round picks will help them.

And what would a Draft recap be without a completely meaningless and knee-jerk grade? RotoExperts has devised a patented “beer goggle” grading system to help you figure out how the draft will affect your favorite team’s prospects.

We’ll let you know how many beers you’ll have to drink before you think your team’s draftees will turn them into “contenders.” Of course, this is on a sliding scale. For Detroit, contending means winning one game; in Pittsburgh, nothing less than a Super Bowl win will do.

Chug! Chug! Chug!

THE SOBER

Philadelphia Eagles
Grade: Two Beers
Donovan McNabb (QB) should be ecstatic. Jeremy Maclin(WR) is an explosive player and top-notch route runner who should easily win a starting job opposite DeSean Jackson(WR). Expect Maclin to be a respectable WR3 at minimum by mid-season.

Second-rounder LeSean McCoy (RB) is a Brian Westbrook (RB) clone who fits perfectly in the Eagles system. He’s an excellent receiver who is merely OK between the tackles. He’ll definitely play in year one and will be worth a late-round handcuff pick, because you know Westbrook will get hurt.

Indianapolis Colts
Grade: Two Beers
DTs Fili Moala and Terrance Taylor will upgrade the rushing defense to make the Colts defense worth a fantasy spot start. Donald Brown (RB) is basically the same kind of running back as Joseph Addai (RB) and will see plenty of playing time since Addai can’t stay healthy.

He’s a handcuff worthy of a mid-round pick. Austin Collie(WR) fits into the Colts WR mold and will challenge Anthony Gonzalez(WR) for a starting job. Even if Collie is Indianapolis’ third WR, he’s still worth a fantasy roster spot.

New York Giants
Grade: Two Beers
Hakeem Nicks(WR) reminds me of Anquan Boldin(WR, AZ), a tough guy who won’t have a problem beating the jam. I like him to be a solid WR2 this year, even if it takes him a few weeks to rev up. Receiving TE Travis Beckum should be able to contribute early, as Kevin Boss (TE) isn’t much of a pass-catching threat except in the red zone.

New England Patriots
Grade: Two Beers
The master of the Draft, coach Bill Belichick, trades up, down, around, and still fills nearly all of his needs. Ron Brace(DT) will shore up the 15th -ranked rushing defense, while Patrick Chung (SS) and Darius Butler (CB) inject some youth into a veteran secondary.

These guys will help the Pats return to the ranks of the elite fantasy defenses. Brandon Tate(WR) will be an interesting prospect in about two years. 

Denver Broncos
Grade: Three Beers
The only way the Knowshon Moreno (RB) pick can be criticized is in context of the Broncos multiple defensive needs. In fantasy, this is a stellar pick. The Broncos offensive line is fantastic, and Moreno will fit perfectly into the system.

He’s my early choice for fantasy rookie of the year. Versatile Robert Ayers (DE) and Alphonso Smith (CB) will help, but the Broncos are a million miles away from fantasy respectability on defense.

Minnesota Vikings
Grade: Three Beers
Percy Harvin(WR) is a bold pick at a position of need, and could help put the Vikings over the top if he stays healthy. He’s an explosive player who will contribute immediately in fantasy on a variety of plays. In point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, Harvin will be a very nice mid-round draft pick.

Phil Loadholt (OT) will help the O-line by allowing Ryan Cook(RT) to move to his natural center position. The Loadholt pick, in particular, should remove any doubt about Adrian Peterson (RB) as the first overall fantasy pick.

Tennessee Titans
Grade: Three Beers
Overall, this was a very solid draft by Tennessee. Kenny Britt(WR) fits the Keyshawn Johnson mold, for all the good and bad that implies. Due to the Titans’ conservative offense, Britt ultimately only has value in PPR leagues, and not right away.

Speedy, converted WR Jared Cook (TE) has a better chance at making a fantasy impact in 2009. The picks of Sen’Derrick Marks(DT) and Ryan Mouton (CB) will help keep the Titans among the elite fantasy defenses.

Green Bay Packers
Grade: Four Beers
The Packers needed to bring in some personnel appropriate for their new 3-4 defense. B.J. Raji(DT) and Clay Matthews(DE/OLB) will help ease the transition, though the Pack need another year of building to be a roster-worthy fantasy defense.

On offense, Jamon Meredith (OT) fills a need at the RT spot and will help the Packers upgrade the 17th-ranked rushing attack and Ryan Grant’s (RB) fantasy value.

San Francisco 49ers
Grade: Four Beers
The Niners had a good draft, hitting most of their areas of need, though the O-line was neglected. They got a gift from across the Bay when Michael Crabtree(WR) fell into their laps, upgrading a poor WR group.

The issues at QB mean Crabtree might not be a reliable fantasy contributor until midway through the season. Small but powerful Glen Coffee (RB) will be a more immediate contributor, as Frank Gore (RB) can’t stay healthy. Coffee will be worth a late handcuff pick. 

THE BUZZED

Arizona Cardinals
Grade: Five Beers
Chris “Beanie” Wells(RB) is exactly what Arizona needs: A banger who can take pressure off the passing game. He’ll start immediately, but will be a first and second down player only, with Tim Hightower (RB) as the change-of-pace back.

Lots of health issues too, so while you should draft Beanie in fantasy, don’t overrate him, because he will get hurt. Big ol’ Herman Johnson(OG) should help push the pile for Wells and keep Kurt Warner (QB) high and dry.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Grade: Five Beers
Karl Urbik(OG) and A.Q. Shipley(C) will challenge for starting jobs, and even if they don’t get them, the Steelers’ O-line will be better for the competition. Look for an improved rushing attack from the Steelers this year, though it’s likely that RBs Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall will split time, lowering both of their fantasy values.

Evander “Ziggy” Hood(DT/DE) will join the D-line rotation and make the top fantasy defense that much better.

Atlanta Falcons
Grade: Five Beers
Peria Jerry(DT) is a good complement to Jonathan Babineaux(DT) and will make Curtis Lofton (MLB) a much better player. Jerry will upgrade the Falcons’ 25th-ranked rush defense, but there are too many other holes on Atlanta’s unit to be worth anything in fantasy.

Miami Dolphins
Grade: Five Beers
Miami is in desperate need at CB. Vontae Davis and Sean Smith will help fill those gaps. If the pass D gets just a shade better, Miami could be a bye-week fill-in defense, as they’ve got a good pass rush and are stout against the run.

Pat White(QB/WR) is an interesting pick for the original pro Wildcatters, but he won’t see the field enough to be a reliable fantasy player.

San Diego Chargers
Grade: Five Beers
The Chargers’ draft wasn’t flashy, but it shored up some areas of weakness, particularly on the lines. Larry English (DE) will help with the pass rush, but the defense is still too weak in the secondary to warrant a fantasy pick.

Seattle Seahawks
Grade: Six Beers
The first two picks, Aaron Curry (LB) and Max Unger (C/G) were very good, but the rest of Seattle’s draft didn’t do a lot to address the team’s needs. Curry will join a potent LB corps, but Seattle has the league’s worst pass defense and it didn’t get any better this off-season.

Unger will help some with the rushing game, but Julius Jones (RB) has always been unreliable, and that won’t change.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Grade: Seven Beers
I can’t fault the players coach Jack Del Rio took early, Monroe and Eben Britten(OT), but they only needed one tackle. I like the help they’ll give Jones-Drew, but Jacksonville’s failure to acquire anything other than a few slot-WR prospects negates some of the value the tackles bring.

Expect teams stack the line against Jones-Drew. One guy I’m touting as a sleeper is bulldozing RB Rashad Jennings. He’ll be a solid handcuff and probable touchdown vulture.

Houston Texans
Grade: Seven Beers
Houston went heavily towards the defensive side of the ball, which was a necessity considering they ranked in the lower half of the league in nearly every category. Brian Cushing (LB) will upgrade the 23rd-ranked rush defense, while athletic Connor Barwin (DE) will aid the pass rush.

Will any of these picks make Houston a decent fantasy defense? Absolutely not. As a sleeper, keep versatile James Casey (TE) in mind.

Cleveland Browns
Grade:  Eight Beers
The Browns earned the fifth overall pick by stinking in nearly every aspect of the game. At least on offense, they went in the direction of turning that perception around, even if they didn’t find a replacement for Jamal Lewis (RB).

Alex Mack(C) is an upgrade in the middle of the O-line, and the gaping holes at WR will be filled ably by Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi. Robiskie is probably the most polished WR coming out of the draft, and is ready to contribute quickly as a possession receiver. He’ll be worth a look as an in-season pick-up.

New York Jets                                                                                             Grade: Eight Beers                                                                                               The learning curve will be steep for Mark Sanchez (QB), and the New York media’s patience is short. Outside of Jerricho Cotchery(WR) and Dustin Keller(TE), there isn’t much to throw to, so expect lots of handoffs to Thomas Jones (RB) and zero fantasy value.

On the plus side, Shonn Greene (RB) is a big, north-south runner who will serve as the eventual replacement to Jones. That could be sooner rather than later (sleeper alert!).

Baltimore Ravens
Grade: Eight Beers
Michael Oher(OT) provides an upgrade at RT, but the Ravens’ fourth-ranked rushing attack was by committee, and Oher doesn’t help clear that up. This was a second-tier need behind WR, and that position was not addressed. The rest of the Ravens’ draft featured situational pass-rushers, which they’re already loaded up with.

Detroit Lions
Grade: Nine Beers
Every journey starts with one step, and the Lions started on their path to respectability here. Matthew Stafford (QB) will probably be starting by Detroit’s bye week, but with that O-line, he has almost zero fantasy value.

Brandon Pettigrew (TE) is overrated because of his blocking ability; he won’t see a lot of balls thrown his way. If there’s a sleeper hope for fantasy players, it’s Derrick Williams(WR), a nice possession receiver who will be a competent complement to Calvin Johnson(WR).

St. Louis Rams
Grade: 10 Beers
Jason Smith (OT) and recent acquisition Jason Brown (C) provide the foundation of an O-line, but the other three spots are still poorly-manned. Expect Steven Jackson (RB) to take another beating and watch a few games from the sideline.

Don’t even consider him before the third round in your fantasy draft. James Laurinaitis(LB) is feisty in the middle, but needs better DTs to keep him clean. Don’t touch the Rams’ defense with a 10-foot pole.

I also have to mention Keith Null (QB) because he sounds like a singer in a hardcore band. Probably has as much fantasy value, too.

Chicago Bears
Grade: 10 Beers
The presence of Jay Cutler (QB) indicates that Juaquin Iglesias(WR) may not be headed to Chicago to die, as have so many WRs before him. Iglesias is a solid possession receiver who will be a nice compliment for Devin Hester’s(WR) straight-line speed. He has little competition for a starting job, and will be a nice sleeper as an in-season pickup.

Cincinnati Bengals
Grade:10 Beers
The Bengals get the best lineman in the draft, Andre Smith (OT). His presence helps Carson Palmer (QB) quite a bit, as Levi Jones (OT) is injury-prone. Unless some off-season miracle happens, though, don’t touch a Bengal before round seven of your fantasy draft.

Note to the Cincinnati Police Department: Bernard Scott(RB) is coming to town. You may need to beef up your permanent stakeout of Bengals headquarters.

Washington Redskins
Grade: 10 Beers
You know that owner Daniel Snyder is mad as hell that the Jets out-maneuvered him to get Sanchez.  It looked like Washington lost interest after that, because they didn’t get much beyond Brian Orakpo (DE).

Even so, Orakpo has the skills to help the Skins’ pass rush, which is the only thing keeping them from ranking among the top fantasy defenses.

BLACKED-OUT

Buffalo Bills
Grade: 11 Beers
The massive need was at OT, and that wasn’t addressed. Nevertheless, the upgrades on the interior line with Eric Wood (C) and Andy Levitre (G) help fill some holes that would have put a real dent in Marshawn Lynch’s (RB) fantasy value.

First-rounder Aaron Maybin(DE) is a sack artist with little to no fantasy value in IDP leagues, as he’ll only be on the field in obvious passing situations.

Dallas Cowboys
Grade: 12 Beers
The fact that the Cowboys didn’t want a pick in the first two rounds showed that they weren’t that impressed with the talent this year. This was a draft for depth in Dallas, and none of these players will have any impact in 2009, fantasy or otherwise.

Kansas City Chiefs
Grade: 12 Beers
The Chiefs took Tyson Jackson (DE) with the third overall pick, which is an insane amount of money to pay for a guy who is basically a run-stuffer who can provide few sacks.

They brought in a few other defensive players, but salvaging the Chiefs’ defense is a multi-year project. None of their offensive prospects look ready to contribute any time soon, either.

Carolina Panthers
Grade: 13 Beers
Everette Brown(DE) is a tweener-type who would fit well in a 3-4 defense. Of course, the Panthers run a 4-3. While Brown can be a versatile three-down player, he’s not a replacement for Julius Peppers (DE) should Peppers move on.

The real reason not to like this pick is that Carolina gave up a 2010 first-rounder to get Brown in the second round. The other reach is the experiment to turn 25-year old college FS Sherrod Martin to a pro CB.

For their next trick, Carolina will attempt to graft wings onto a pig.

New Orleans Saints
Grade: 13 beers
You automatically get a crappy grade for drafting a punter as anything other than “Mr. Irrelevant,” and particularly in the fifth round. Not much to speak in this draft, as Malcolm Jenkins(CB/FS) will have to earn a starting job in a crowded group. You’d be bananas to take the Saints’ defense in fantasy, anyway.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Grade: 18 Beers
Coach Raheem Morris will be given time to rebuild the roster and it looks like he’s taking it. Josh Freeman (QB) is a poor man’s JaMarcus Russell (QB, OAK), and I fully realize the implications of that statement.

His bust potential is very high, and fantasy value close to nil in the short and medium terms. The Bucs should have upgraded the defense they gutted, where they got little more than two decent run-stuffers in Roy Miller(DT) and Kyle Moore (DE).

The Bucs will be uneven on D this year as they’re installing a new system, so stay away from them.

Oakland Raiders
Grade: 23 Beers
The only thing saving Oakland from a grade of a full case of beer is that they drafted the underrated Louis Murphy(WR), who was overshadowed at Florida by Harvin. Murphy will be a solid contributor given a year or two of seasoning.

The Raiders shocked everyone by taking Darrius Heyward-Bey(WR) at seventh overall when Crabtree and Maclin were still available. It’s not Al Davis’ fault. He’s got a problem. He’s addicted to speed. The man needs a 12-step program.

He took Michael Mitchell (S) in the second round when the guy didn’t even appear in most draft scouting reports, just because Mitchell has speed. Sad.

Heyward-Bey is basically Devery Henderson(WR, NO), a pure speed guy with poor hands who might catch a few bombs here and there.  But he's nothing close to approaching the kind of consistency needed by fantasy players.

Mike Gilbert is a staff writer at RotoExperts.com and co-host of “Sports Smack” on Blog Talk Radio every Friday from 7-8 p.m. ET. You can reach Mike with your own fantasy football questions or conspiracy theories at [e-mail]. This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it. You can also follow Mike on Twitter @RotoBoom.