In order for a bet to be truly favorable, there has to be some upside to it. Going out and placing a wager on Mayweather to win by decision is a safe bet, but there isn’t a big risk or reward involved.
You shouldn’t go out and throw all your money at a long shot (Guerrero TKO in three rounds), but it doesn’t hurt to find the most cost-beneficial bets out there in order to get some kind of return on your money.
The fight is widely predicted to end in 12 rounds in favor of Mayweather by a decision. That means you’re going to need to wager a lot to win very little by going the safe route.
Take a look at some other bets that have a little more upside but have some risk involved.
Fight Does Not Go the Distance: Under (+200)
This is a bit of a risk considering the technical skills of both fighters. Just four of Mayweather’s last 10 fights have ended prior to the final bell. Likewise, Guerrero has had just one fight stopped before decision time during that span.
Taking this bet means you’ll need an early stoppage of the fight. It’s not as likely, but the return for your risk will make it all worthwhile if Money ends things quickly or Guerrero shocks the world with a knockout victory.
Mayweather Win in Round 7-12: (9/2)
This bet is linked to the previous idea that the fight will not reach a final decision. If Mayweather can wear his opponent out throughout the night and score the win by another means you’ll get a very nice return for your bet.
He might try to do that, too. Mayweather likes to use his opponent's strategy against them. If Guerrero attacks relentlessly, Mayweather could land a powerful counter to end this fight sooner than many expect.
Mayweather Win by KO, TKO or DQ: (+260)
This bet is reliant on the first two coming to fruition. You might as well triple down on the whole bunch and hope for a Mayweather KO between the seventh and 12th rounds. If it happens you’ll make out like a bandit after this one is over.
Then again, an early-round KO by either fighter and you’ll probably break even depending on how much you have wagered.
Most of these bets will fail to deliver if Mayweather fights to his potential and methodically picks and prods at his challenger to retain the WBC welterweight title by decision.
You’ll be betting with upside in mind and clinging to hope that this title bout fails to live up to that likelihood.
*All odds used are current as of Friday night at 10 p.m. ET (via Bovada)