2013 Kentucky Derby: Who Are the Experts Picking at Churchill Downs?

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2013 Kentucky Derby: Who Are the Experts Picking at Churchill Downs?
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

History will be made on Saturday as the 2013 Kentucky Derby commences from Churchill Downs at 6:24 p.m. ET.

With the field of 20 set and official positions announced, horse racing experts have submitted their selections for who will win the 139th Run for the Roses.  

It's no easy task predicting how the Kentucky Derby will play out, but the analysts from KentuckyDerby.com and the Daily Racing Forum have done their best to provide you with their projections for the 2013 running.

Before we get into the experts' picks, let's take a look at the most up-to-date odds for the derby field (via KentuckyDerby.com).

Post Horse Odds
16 Orb 7-2
14 Verrazano 4-1
8 Goldencents 5-1
3 Revolutionary 10-1
5 Normandy Invasion 12-1
6 Mylute 15-1
9 Overanalyze 15-1
12 Itsmyluckyday 15-1
19 Java's War 15-1
20 Vyjack 15-1
10 Palace Malice 20-1
15 Charming Kitten 20-1
17 Will Take Charge 20-1
2 Oxbow 30-1
11 Lines of Battle 30-1
4 Golden Soul 50-1
7 Giant Finish 50-1
13 Falling Sky 50-1
18 Frac Daddy 50-1

Note that Black Onyx has been scratched from the 2013 Kentucky Derby, according to the Churchill Downs official Twitter account.

 

 

Expert Picks


KentuckyDerby.com

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

John Asher, Vice President of Racing Communications—Win: Revolutionary; Place: Orb; Show: Normandy Invasion

Jill Byrne, Director of On Air Communications—Win: Revolutionary; Place: Orb; Show: Normandy Invasion

 

Asher and Byrne, who are both close to the action and know horse racing well, each like Revolutionary to win the Run for the Roses on Saturday. 

Revolutionary is trained by the infamous Todd Pletcher, who has five horses running in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Pletcher trained Super Saver to a 2010 Kentucky Derby victory and led all trainers in monies won in 2011.

Jockey Calvin Borel has three Kentucky Derby victories under his belt, most notably being the improbable win aboard Mine That Bird in 2009, and was inducted into the Hall of Fame this year.

 

James Scully, editor of Handicapper's Edge and Bloodstock Journal at Brisnet.com: Win: Orb; Place: Itsmyluckyday; Show: Overanalyze

 

A lot of analysts like Orb's chances of being the next Kentucky Derby winner, and James Scully is no different. 

Orb is trained by Claude R. "Shug" McGaughey III, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2004 and is a former Eclipse award winner. Jockey Joel Rosario doesn't possess much derby experience, as he finished fourth in his first Kentucky Derby appearance aboard Make Music for Me in 2010.

 

 

The Daily Racing Forum

 

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Jay Privman and Mike Watchman are the correspondents for the Daily Racing Forum and have developed their own power rankings for the 2013 Kentucky Derby, along with their own odds. Here's a look at their updated rankings and odds:

 

Rank Horse Odds
1 Orb 5-1
2 Verrazano 6-1
3 Goldencents 8-1
4 Revolutionary 8-1
5 Normandy Invasion 8-1
6 Itsmyluckyday 12-1
7 Java's War 15-1
8 Overanalyze 15-1
9 Vyjack 15-1
10 Will Take Charge 20-1
11 Mylute 20-1
12 Golden Soul 30-1
13 Palace Malice 30-1
14 Charming Kitten 30-1
15 Frac Daddy 30-1
16 Lines of Battle 30-1
17 Oxbow 30-1
18 Black Onyx 50-1
19 Falling Sky 50-1
20 Giant Finish 50-1

 

As you can see, the guys like Orb to finish in the winner's circle on Saturday. Privman recently tweeted about Orb's status entering the 2013 derby:

Who has the best chances of winning the 2013 Kentucky Derby?

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Orb seems to be the consensus favorite among a lot of analysts, but it's interesting to see the lack of confidence in Verrazano, who owns the second-best odds entering the derby. 

Verrazano is a Pletcher-trained colt and is jockeyed by John Velazquez, who has appeared in 13 Kentucky Derbys, winning one aboard Animal Kingdom in 2011.

Of course, horse racing isn't an exact science and with less body of work to base a horse off of than we used to have, it's only gotten more difficult to predict how a horse will fare. Nonetheless, this is what the experts are saying for the 2013 Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

Good luck, all.

 

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