Kentucky Derby Odds 2013: Where Vegas Completely Missed the Mark
As long-shots like I'll Have Another, Animal Kingdom and Mine That Bird have shown in recent years, Vegas doesn't always get it right when it comes to projecting how horses will fare at the Kentucky Derby.
The last betting favorite to win the Run for the Roses was Big Brown in 2008, and overall only four betting favorites have delivered at Churchill Downs since 2000. Maybe this is the year the drought ends for the odds-on favorite.
Or maybe not.
It's time to take a closer look at where Vegas missed the mark in 2013.
2013 Kentucky Derby | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky. | Purse: $2.18 Million | Grade I | Distance: 10 furlongs | Post Time: 7-7:30 p.m. ET
*Post positions via the Kentucky Derby's official Twitter account. Odds via OddsShark.com.
|1||Black Onyx ||Joe Bravo ||Kelly Breen ||50-1|
|2||Oxbow ||Gary Stevens ||D. Wayne Lukas ||33-1|
|3||Revolutionary||Calvin Borel||Todd Pletcher ||9-1|
|4||Golden Soul||Robby Albarado||Dallas Stewart||50-1|
|5||Normandy Invasion ||Javier Castellano ||Chad Brown ||9-1|
Mylute ||Rosie Napravnik ||Tom Amoss ||16-1|
|7||Giant Finish||Jose L. Espinoza||Anthony W. Dutrow||50-1|
|8||Goldencents||Kevin Krigger||Doug O'Neill||11/2|
|9||Overanalyze||Rafael Bejarano||Todd Pletcher||14-1|
|10||Palace Malice||Mike Smith||Todd Pletcher||25-1|
|11||Lines of Battle||Ryan Moore||Aidan O'Brien||33-1|
|12||Itsmyluckyday||Elvis Trujillo||Eddie Plesa, Jr.||12-1|
|13||Falling Sky||Luis Saez||John Terranova II||50-1|
Verrazano ||John R. Velazquez ||Todd Pletcher ||4-1|
|15||Charming Kitten ||Edgar Prado ||Todd Pletcher ||25-1|
|16||Orb||Joel Rosario ||Claude R. McGaughey III ||4-1|
|17||Will Take Charge||Jon Court ||D. Wayne Lukas ||20-1|
|18||Frac Daddy||Victor Lebron||Kenny McPeek ||40-1|
|19||Java's War||Julien Leparoux||Kenny McPeek||16-1|
|20||Vyjack||Garrett Gomez ||Rudy Rodriguez ||14-1|
Yes, Mylute had a strong outing at the Grade II Louisiana Derby last March, but that hardly warrants 16-1 odds this weekend at Churchill Downs.
A month earlier, Mylute finished seventh at the Grade II Risen Star Stakes and boasts just two first-place finishes in nine career starts. Starting from the sixth post on Saturday evening, the Tom Amoss-trained colt ridden by female jockey Rosie Napravnik would be the first horse to win the Derby from that slot since Sea Hero 20 years ago.
But don't count on that happening.
If it wasn't for a late charge at the Fair Grounds last March, Mylute would likely be overlooked heading into the Triple Crown's first leg.
Todd Pletcher's Overanalyzed may have been overanalyzed by the Vegas oddsmakers. Despite winning the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park last month, beating out fellow Kentucky Derby hopefuls Frac Daddy, Falling Sky and Oxbow, the colt has been assigned 14-1 odds.
Although those odds aren't dreadful, this is a well-trained horse who could easily outlast the field this weekend.
Overanalyze, who has four wins in seven career starts, will start from a favorable post in slot nine, directly to the right of one of the favorites, Goldencents.
If you're looking for a comfortable dark-horse pick on Saturday, Overanalyze is your horse.
Another strong horse with surprising odds is Itsmyluckyday, a colt with five career victories and two wins in 2013.
Which horse's odds make the least sense?
A runner-up at the Grade I Florida Derby last March, the Eddie Plesa Jr.-trained horse also impressed at the Gulfstream Park Derby and then again at Grade III Holy Bull Stakes a few weeks later, winning both events.
Although 12-1 odds aren't terrible, they are definitely a bit of a surprise given how well Itsmyluckyday has performed coming in, winning two-of-three starts in 2013 and finishing in the money in eight-of-10 career races.
Winning from post 12 will be no easy task, but Itsmyluckyday, jockeyed by Elvis Trujillo should be in the mix as the field makes its final turn onto the home stretch Saturday, as he has throughout his entire racing career.
Follow Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Patrick Clarke on Twitter.
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