Kentucky Derby Odds 2013: Where Vegas Completely Missed the Mark

Patrick Clarke@@_Pat_ClarkeCorrespondent IMay 3, 2013

LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 01: Mylute goes over the track during morning training in preparation for the 2013 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1, 2013 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

As long-shots like I'll Have Another, Animal Kingdom and Mine That Bird have shown in recent years, Vegas doesn't always get it right when it comes to projecting how horses will fare at the Kentucky Derby.

The last betting favorite to win the Run for the Roses was Big Brown in 2008, and overall only four betting favorites have delivered at Churchill Downs since 2000. Maybe this is the year the drought ends for the odds-on favorite.

Or maybe not.

It's time to take a closer look at where Vegas missed the mark in 2013.


2013 Kentucky Derby | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky. | Purse: $2.18 Million | Grade I | Distance: 10 furlongs | Post Time: 7-7:30 p.m. ET

*Post positions via the Kentucky Derby's official Twitter account. Odds via

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Black Onyx
Joe Bravo
Kelly Breen
2  Oxbow
Gary Stevens
D. Wayne Lukas
3 Revolutionary  Calvin Borel  Todd Pletcher
4 Golden Soul Robby Albarado  Dallas Stewart  50-1
5 Normandy Invasion
Javier Castellano
Chad Brown
6 Mylute
Rosie Napravnik
Tom Amoss
7 Giant Finish Jose L. Espinoza  Anthony W. Dutrow  50-1
8 Goldencents  Kevin Krigger  Doug O'Neill  11/2
9 Overanalyze  Rafael Bejarano  Todd Pletcher  14-1
10 Palace Malice  Mike Smith  Todd Pletcher  25-1
11 Lines of Battle  Ryan Moore  Aidan O'Brien  33-1
12 Itsmyluckyday  Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa, Jr.  12-1
13 Falling Sky  Luis Saez  John Terranova II  50-1
14 Verrazano
John R. Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
15 Charming Kitten
Edgar Prado
Todd Pletcher
16 Orb Joel Rosario
Claude R. McGaughey III
17 Will Take Charge Jon Court
D. Wayne Lukas
18 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron  Kenny McPeek
19 Java's War  Julien Leparoux  Kenny McPeek  16-1
20 Vyjack Garrett Gomez
Rudy Rodriguez


Mylute, 16-1

Yes, Mylute had a strong outing at the Grade II Louisiana Derby last March, but that hardly warrants 16-1 odds this weekend at Churchill Downs.

A month earlier, Mylute finished seventh at the Grade II Risen Star Stakes and boasts just two first-place finishes in nine career starts. Starting from the sixth post on Saturday evening, the Tom Amoss-trained colt ridden by female jockey Rosie Napravnik would be the first horse to win the Derby from that slot since Sea Hero 20 years ago.

But don't count on that happening.

If it wasn't for a late charge at the Fair Grounds last March, Mylute would likely be overlooked heading into the Triple Crown's first leg. 


Overanalyze, 14-1

Todd Pletcher's Overanalyzed may have been overanalyzed by the Vegas oddsmakers. Despite winning the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park last month, beating out fellow Kentucky Derby hopefuls Frac Daddy, Falling Sky and Oxbow, the colt has been assigned 14-1 odds.

Although those odds aren't dreadful, this is a well-trained horse who could easily outlast the field this weekend.

Overanalyze, who has four wins in seven career starts, will start from a favorable post in slot nine, directly to the right of one of the favorites, Goldencents. 

If you're looking for a comfortable dark-horse pick on Saturday, Overanalyze is your horse.


Itsmyluckyday, 12-1

Another strong horse with surprising odds is Itsmyluckyday, a colt with five career victories and two wins in 2013.

A runner-up at the Grade I Florida Derby last March, the Eddie Plesa Jr.-trained horse also impressed at the Gulfstream Park Derby and then again at Grade III Holy Bull Stakes a few weeks later, winning both events.

Although 12-1 odds aren't terrible, they are definitely a bit of a surprise given how well Itsmyluckyday has performed coming in, winning two-of-three starts in 2013 and finishing in the money in eight-of-10 career races. 

Winning from post 12 will be no easy task, but Itsmyluckyday, jockeyed by Elvis Trujillo should be in the mix as the field makes its final turn onto the home stretch Saturday, as he has throughout his entire racing career.


Follow Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Patrick Clarke on Twitter. 

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