Kentucky Derby 2013 Lineup: Horses That Will Struggle with Difficult Draw

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Kentucky Derby 2013 Lineup: Horses That Will Struggle with Difficult Draw
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

History tells us that a horse's starting post at the Kentucky Derby can influence how it fares over the 1 1/4-mile dirt track at Churchill Downs.

While I'll Have Another's memorable win from post 19 contradicts that belief, it must be noted that the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner was the exception and not the norm. Recently, horses starting closer to the rail but not directly on it have fared the best.

Eleven of the past 20 Derby winners have started within posts Nos. 3 though 10.

Outside of that range, posts Nos. 16 and 15 have fared the best, producing a combined six winners over the past 20 Kentucky Derby races.

History isn't what's often holding these horses back, however. There's something to be said for starting on the rail, in the middle of the pack and on the far outside. Depending on how a horse likes to run, a post draw from inside or outside can make all the difference.

Here we'll take a closer look at a trio of horses who will struggle with their difficult draw this weekend.

 

2013 Kentucky Derby | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky. | Purse: $2.18 Million | Grade I | Distance: 10 furlongs | Post Time: 7-7:30 p.m. ET

*Post positions via the Kentucky Derby's official Twitter account. Odds courtesy of NBC Sports, via WDRB's Steve Andress.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Black Onyx
Joe Bravo
Kelly Breen
50-1
2  Oxbow
Gary Stevens
D. Wayne Lukas
30-1
3 Revolutionary  Calvin Borel  Todd Pletcher
10-1
4 Golden Soul Robby Albarado  Dallas Stewart  50-1
5 Normandy Invasion
Javier Castellano
Chad Brown
12-1
6 Mylute
Rosie Napravnik
Tom Amoss
15-1
7 Giant Finish Jose L. Espinoza  Anthony W. Dutrow  50-1
8 Goldencents  Kevin Krigger  Doug O'Neill  5-1
9 Overanalyze  Rafael Bejarano  Todd Pletcher  15-1
10 Palace Malice  Mike Smith  Todd Pletcher  20-1
11 Lines of Battle  Ryan Moore  Aidan O'Brien  30-1
12 Itsmyluckyday  Elvis Trujillo Eddie Plesa, Jr.  15-1
13 Falling Sky  Luis Saez  John Terranova II  50-1
14 Verrazano
John R. Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
4-1
15 Charming Kitten
Edgar Prado
Todd Pletcher
20-1
16 Orb Joel Rosario
Claude R. McGaughey III
7/2
17 Will Take Charge Jon Court
D. Wayne Lukas
20-1
18 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron  Kenny McPeek
50-1
19 Java's War  Julien Leparoux  Kenny McPeek  15-1
20 Vyjack Garrett Gomez
Rudy Rodriguez
15-1

 

Will Take Charge, 20-1, Post No. 17

Considering no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post No. 17, it's safe to say that Will Take Charge will be up against it on Saturday.

D. Wayne Lukas' horse is a long shot to win already, but will have to overcome history much like I'll Have Another did in 2012 to become the first-ever Derby winner from post No. 19. 

On the bright side, there's a first time for everything.

The bad news, the Grade II Rebel Stakes winner will start from the middle of the auxiliary gate, three spots down from the last post and 16 spots off the rail. This post features no advantage. Even post No. 20 offers a bit of room out of the gate. 

Will Take Charge's last two wins came from posts Nos. 7 and 9 at the Rebel Stakes and Smarty Jones Stakes respectively.

 

Java's War, 15-1, Post No. 19

Like Will Take Charge, Java's War will start from a post that has been difficult to win from historically. Although I'll Have Another shocked Bodemeister from post No. 19 in 2012, the start from way outside doesn't bode well for Java's War.

The colt won the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month, but started much closer to the inside in that race in Keeneland, running from post No. 4.

Jockey Julien Leparoux will have his work cut out for him this weekend as he aims to lead Java's War from the second-farthest gate out to the front at Churchill Downs. It will all depend on how quickly Java's War can make up the ground and approach the rail.

This is a very capable horse, but one whose chances have been hurt by drawing an unfavorable post this weekend.

 

Oxbow, 30-1, Post No. 2

While post Nos. 1 and 2 have produced a combined 21 Kentucky Derby winners since 1900, neither post has been favorable over the past three or so decades. Post No. 2, where Oxbow will run from on Saturday, hasn't produced a Derby champion since the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, in 1978.

That said, Oxbow will likely struggle down the stretch of this weekend's race considering his starting slot will put him close to the rail early on, making him an easy target for the favorites.

Yahoo! Sports' Pat Forde said it best.

There's a handful of talented thoroughbreds in this year's 20-horse field, and jockey Gary Stevens can't be too confident running out of post No. 2. After all, Oxbow started well off the rail in post No. 9 in his best outing recently, placing second in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park last March.

 

Follow Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Patrick Clarke on Twitter. 

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