Mayweather vs Guerrero: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight

Kevin McRae@@McRaeWritesFeatured ColumnistApril 30, 2013

Mayweather vs Guerrero: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight

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    The time for talk is almost over, as we are now a few days away from the big welterweight championship showdown between pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Robert Guerrero. 

    The 36-year-old Mayweather (43-0, 26 KO) will enter the ring nearly one year to the day since his last fight, a decision win over Miguel Cotto, and will be hoping to defend his WBC Title and reestablish himself as the sport's top dog.

    His opponent, the lesser known but dangerous Robert Guerrero (31-1-1, 18 KO), will hope to catapult himself to superstardom by taking down the man who is both the best fighter and biggest attraction in boxing.

    The predictions for this fight are all over the map, with some favoring Mayweather's trademark boxing ability and others feeling Guerrero could have the style to pull off the upset. 

    Read on for our round-by-round predictions for Mayweather vs. Guerrero!

Round 1: Guerrero

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    Expect a feeling-out round from Mayweather. He hasn't fought in nearly a year, so he will want to get his legs under him and figure out what his opponent brings to the table. 

    One of Money's best traits is his ability to be patient and find holes in his opponents that he can exploit as the fight goes on. Don't expect a whole lot from him in Round 1.

    Robert Guerrero, on the other hand, will look to make an immediate impression in the fight. Unlike his opponent, he can't afford to give away any rounds if he hopes to win.

    Look for him to attempt to establish the distance of the fight by staying close to Mayweather and landing shots wherever he can. They don't even need to land in scoring areas, but he will want to lay some leather to make the fight rough and favorable to his style.

    Guerrero 10-9

Round 2: Mayweather

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    After taking the measure of his opponent for three minutes, Floyd Mayweather will be a little more willing to engage with his opponent. Even at this early stage, he'll see that he has the speed advantage and his punches can get to their target faster.

    Guerrero will once again try to keep the fight close and rough up Mayweather on the inside, but he'll need to pay a price to do so. People underestimate Money's ability to fight on the inside at their own peril, and he'll begin to establish that during the second round.

    The speed differential will begin to show itself here, as Mayweather is able to land shots before Guerrero can let his hands go.

    Mayweather 10-9

    19-19 Overall

Round 3: Mayweather

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    Robert Guerrero will come out aggressive in Round 3, attempting to regain his position in the fight, but the difference in ability will continue to show.

    He'll land a few decent shots and make the fight very uncomfortable in spurts, but it won't be enough for him to capture the round.

    As he further opens up, he will begin to leave himself exposed to Mayweather's counters, which will be sharper, cleaner and have more pop. After realizing that he can land punches pretty much whenever he wants to, Money will begin to open up more and make his opponent think twice about letting his hands go.

    Guerrero will not be deterred, but he will not be able to land enough to win the round.

    Mayweather 10-9

    29-28 Mayweather

Round 4: Mayweather

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    Not content with simply out-boxing his opponent, also looking to make a statement, Floyd Mayweather will become the aggressor in Round 4. By this point, he will realize that Guerrero doesn't have the one-punch power that can threaten him and will let his hands go more than in the previous rounds.

    Both fighters will land some of their cleaner punches of the fight. Guerrero will begin trying to take the fight to the body, which he will find a little less elusive than the head, and will bull Mayweather toward the ropes. But most of his punches on the inside will be blocked or partially blocked.

    Another round for Mayweather as he begins to distance himself.

    Mayweather 10-9

    39-37 Mayweather

Round 5: Guerrero

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    Guerrero begins to realize that he needs some sort of a spark to avoid becoming the latest Mayweather opponent to get absolutely shutdown on fight night. 

    The fight gets a lot rougher in Round 5 after "The Ghost" gets reamed in his corner between rounds for allowing Mayweather to control the pace and distance of the fight. Mayweather will look to the referee a bit this round, as some of his tactics are borderline illegal.

    Guerrero will begin coming inside more aggressively, which will lead to a foul or two that will be warned but not penalized. 

    The fight narrows as it gets uglier and Guerrero takes the fifth.

    Guerrero 10-9

    48-47 Mayweather

Round 6: Mayweather

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    Mayweather will quickly tire of being bulled and fouled. He's a tremendous boxer, but what gets lost sometimes is the fact that he can fight when necessary.

    As Guerrero commits more to making the fight ugly, he'll quickly realize that Mayweather is more than willing to give back all he gets. If he gets fouled, he'll foul back; if he gets caught with a shot, he'll throw one back.

    Mayweather has the stamina to fight any style, but Guerrero by this point will be working very hard to land very little. This will again give Money opportunities to carve him up on the inside with his sharper punches. 

    The rounds might seem to become closer, but Mayweather is still in charge as Guerrero begins to show the effects of eating too much leather.

    Mayweather 10-9

    58-56 Mayweather

Round 7: Mayweather

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    Another round of Guerrero coming forward trying to make the fight ugly and Mayweather sitting in the pocket and dissecting him with counters.

    The biggest problem in the fight thus far for Guerrero is the disparity in hand speed. He's been on or around Mayweather for much of the fight, but he cannot land clean. Most of his shots have been eluded, partially or totally blocked. 

    He just doesn't have the speed to connect with the solid shots he needs in order to score points with the judges. However, his work to the body and some of his shots landing on Floyd's elbows and shoulders could begin to have an effect in the latter rounds.

    Just not this one.

    Mayweather 10-9

    68-65 Mayweather

Round 8: Mayweather

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    Guerrero firmly understands by this point that he's fallen behind in the fight and will need something drastic to turn it around on the cards or by knockout. 

    His aggression, though, plays right into Mayweather's hands. Floyd rocks him with a counter right hand in the middle of the round and begins to unleash his trademark blazing combinations. Guerrero weathers them well and doesn't appear hurt. He catches Mayweather on the button with a counter left hand that forces the champ to retreat.

    Mayweather isn't hurt, but he is playing possum along the ropes, allowing Guerrero to expend a lot of energy without hitting much.

    This is a tough round to score and depends on whether you favor Guerrero, who threw more punches, or Mayweather, who was more precise and landed more. 

    Mayweather 10-9

    78-74 Mayweather

Round 9: Mayweather

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    Robert Guerrero is again the aggressor. He's able to land a bit more in this round, as his desperation level goes up and Mayweather begins to use his legs a little less. It's not clear at this point whether Floyd is beginning to tire due to the rough style of the fight or if he's simply looking to make more of it.

    Mayweather lands pretty much at will, whenever he chooses to let his hands go. And that's a lot in this round. Most of Guerrero's shots are off the mark, but when he does land, Floyd gives him a little smile as if to say, "you got me."

    Money simply doesn't respect Guerrero's power, but he is slowing down a tad. The accumulation of punches to non-scoring areas has reduced his hand speed just a bit. Those elbows and hands must be hurting, and Floyd has had a history of hand problems, but it doesn't show, as he closes the round out with a flurry that brings the crowd to its feet.

    Mayweather 10-9

    88-83 Mayweather

Round 10: Guerrero

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    A take-off type of round for Mayweather. He pretty much knows that he has the fight won on the cards at this point, barring something unpredictable happening that would shock the world.

    Guerrero knows he has to be aggressive and begins cutting down the distance. He gets Mayweather along the ropes a few times and connects with some decent, but not fight-changing shots. It'll be enough to win him the round on the judges' scorecards, but not to change the overall direction of the fight.

    It would seem that Mayweather is saving up his energy to close the show in the championship rounds.

    Guerrero 10-9

    97-93 Mayweather

Round 11: Mayweather

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    Full-blown desperation now in the Guerrero corner, as he needs a knockout to win. Instead of trying to walk Mayweather down, which he has done with limited success thus far, he now begins charging forward.

    But he simply doesn't have the speed or precision to catch Floyd with anything game-changing. When "The Ghost" bulls in, he gets shredded with counters. When he stands flat-footed in the center of the ring, he gets hit with combinations from different angles.

    Through 11 full rounds, it has been another masterful performance from Floyd Mayweather, who, despite a few dicey moments, has clearly been the better fighter on this night.

    Mayweather 10-9

    107-102 Mayweather

Round 12: Mayweather

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    Mayweather will not run despite having the fight won on the cards. He engages Guerrero on better than even terms for the entirety of the final round in order to close the show. He rocks his frustrated opponent more than once, though they may have been from being off-balance rather than hurt, and leaves no doubt in the eyes of the judges or the fans.

    As the final bell rings, Floyd Mayweather raises his hands in the air as his game, and outgunned opponent, return to the corner, dejected.

    Mayweather 10-9

    117-111 Mayweather

Final Analysis

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    Make no mistake about it, there were some dicey moments in the fight for Floyd Mayweather Jr. 

    Robert Guerrero's rough, stalking style was tricky in spots, but in the end, Mayweather's boxing intellect and ability to find and exploit holes won the day.

    He was simply too fast, too smart and too good for his game and over-matched opponent.

    Expect Floyd Mayweather to return in style on Saturday night and win a clear, convincing unanimous decision somewhere in the 116-112, 117-111 score range.