Borussia Dortmund's 4-1 thrashing of Real Madrid has them on the verge of reaching the Champions League final and Real Madrid on the verge of flaming out of the tournament. After the embarrassment in the first leg, Real Madrid will be exiting Champions League in the semifinal round for the third straight season.
This Real Madrid side is definitely capable of scoring the three goals required to equal the semifinal, but that would mean not conceding for the full 90 minutes. After Dortmund exploited the Madrid defense and looked so in control, it's had to see them not scoring. That would mean that Madrid would need to score four or more to have a realistic chance at advancing to the final.
In the last two semifinals (2011 and 2012), Real Madrid has gotten behind in the first leg and been unable to come back. In 2011, they went down 0-2 to Barcelona at home before drawing in the second leg. In 2012, they went down 1-2 on the road against Bayern Munich. In the second leg, they got two early goals from Ronaldo to them ahead before conceding to Robben on a penalty and losing on penalties.
Both times, the task was simpler and still Real Madrid wasn't able to advance.
This time they must take down a hungry German giant by multiple goals. With Cristiano Ronaldo as their leader, this team can't be counted out, but the chances they pull off the improbably are slim to none.
The 4-0 drubbing that Dortmund put on wasn't just a pile of goals in an otherwise balanced match. The Germans limited Real Madrid to very few chances and wouldn't have conceded if not for a sloppy turnover in the back.
To advance to the final, Real Madrid would have to turn the tables and completely dominant their opponents. After not being able to unlock the Dortmund defense for most of the 90 minutes, they surely won't be able to do it three times, even at home.
The German defense is too consistent to be undone to the level that is required for a Real Madrid victory.
Considering all competitions this season, Dortmund has surrendered three goals or more just four times. It's only happened once in the calendar year. This team doesn't give up very many goals with a solid defense and strong goal keeping from Roman Weidenfeller.
There are a number of teams that would still be vulnerable with a 4-1 lead heading into Madrid, but Dortmund is not one of them. They have the perfect balance of discipline on defense and counter-attacking power to take down Read Madrid.