Sens Talk: Will Ottawa Make the Playoffs?

Who would have thunk it?

The Ottawa-Toronto game Thursday night at the Air Canada Centre has major implications for one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.

If I had said that two weeks ago, everyone would have thought the Leafs were part of the equation.

But of course Toronto has long been eliminated, and the Senators, a team that looked invincible to start the season, are the team on the bubble.

Don't get me wrong, the Sens are still holding onto a playoff spot—they are sixth in the conference entering play Thursday with 92 points, two points up on ninth-place Washington—and I still think they will get in.

Still, it has been a humiliating collapse for a team that started out on fire, one that many expected to represent the East in the Stanley Cup Finals for the second consecutive spring.

One that was untouchable.

After all, this team started out 13-1-0—following yet another win over the Leafs on Nov. 6, their third versus their provincial rivals already that early in the season—and citizens in Canada's national capital were already planning a parade.

However, the Ray Emery controversy, injuries to every member of the first line, and inconsistent play have all contributed to the Sens' demise, and on Feb. 27, following back-to-back shutout losses to Toronto and Boston, GM Bryan Murray made a bold move.

Coach John Paddock was fired, with Murray himself taking over, as the Sens dropped 14 of 21 contests and had been in danger of losing their top seed to challengers from Montreal, Philadelphia, and New Jersey throughout the month.

At the time, I wondered out loud whether the dismissal of Paddock would rally the Senators. (See: Memorable coaching changes in the NHL)

Many people I talked to told me the Sens would of course improve drastically with Murray at the helm and backup Martin Gerber unseeding Emery as the team's No. 1 goaltender.

(In your face, John House and Rick Jessup. Ha!)

However, the Senators have gone 6-8-2 since the coaching move and not only have they lost their top seed in the conference, they have also kissed away their chances for finishing in the top three. Division-rival Montreal have already clinched the Northeast, thanks to the Sens' 3-0 home loss to the Habs two days earlier.

Teams like the Penguins—who had superstar Sidney Crosby out of the lineup for an extended period earlier in the year—and the Hurricanes—without captain Rod Brind'amour gone for the season with a torn ACL—have rallied despite being left for dead, and will finish ahead of the Senators.

Ottawa won't even have home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. That's if Murray's gang even makes it in the first place.

The Sens now ride a three-game losing streak with back-to-back shutout losses to the Bruins and Canadiens heading into their final two games of the season.

Standing in their way Thursday: the Toronto Maple Leafs, naturally (followed by a home date with Boston to close out the regular season). Meanwhile, Washington, with a win at home over the last-place Tampa Bay Lightning, will tie the Senators in points should Ottawa go down in defeat in regulation.

Seventh-place Boston (92 points, but two fewer wins than Ottawa) and eighth-place Philadelphia (91 points) are idle.

Ottawa beat Toronto back-to-back in the season's first two games with late goals in dramatic fashion, setting the tone for the 2007-08 edition of the Leafs, a team that would develop a knack of blowing games late in regulation all year long.

Ironically, since the Sens went 3-0-0 vs. the Leafs in their first three head-to-head outings, Toronto has owned the rivalry, winning four straight and outscoring its nemesis 17-6 in the process.

Again, I just don't see Ottawa missing the playoffs. No way will the Sens lose to a team playing without its leading scorer, Mats Sundin. Yes, you can bet the Leafs will want to knock the Sens out and thus come out hard in the contest, but you've also got to believe that Ottawa won't go down without a fight.

Whatever they do, the Sens cannot afford a loss Thursday and have the season come down against the Bruins.

Standings at a Glance

5. Rangers 93 pts (3 games left)
6. Ottawa  92 (2)
7. Boston  92 (2)
8. Philadelphia 91 (2)
9. Washington 90 (2)
10. Buffalo 88 (2)

My Predictions

Washington, with games against Tampa and Florida, will win out, assuring itself of 94 points, and will either clinch the Southeast Division or make the playoffs at the very least, if the other teams falter.

Carolina, with 92 points and only one game remaining—against the hapless Panthers—will, in all likelihood, win on Friday and clinch the Southeast and the No. 3 seed in the East.

Ottawa should be able to pull out a win over its hated rivals in Toronto Thursday before its showdown against Boston, where anything can happen.

Philly, a team that plays its final two games at home against the tough Devils and Penguins, will be hard-pressed to with both.

Boston, another team in danger, will play in Ottawa on Friday before ending the season the following night at home against Buffalo.

The way things stand, either the Flyers or Bruins will miss out, while the Capitals and Sens seem to have an "easier" road to make the playoffs.

So yes, I see the Ottawa Senators making the playoffs with one of the last remaining spots, but it's such a huge fall from where they were at the start of the year.

What do the rest of you out there think? Discuss.