As the debate escalates over who is going to be named the regular season MVP, it's important to consider the criteria traditionally used by the panel of sportswriters and broadcasters charged with making that decision.
If you look closely at MVPs from past years, you'll notice some recurring trends. Here's a rundown of all the MVPs that have been crowned under the current process.
Team Team Indv. Indv. Playoff
Standing Standing Rank Rank Result
Year Player (Conference) (NBA) (PPG) (PER) (Prev. Yr.)
2006-2007 Dirk Nowitzki 1st 1st 13th 4th West Chmp
2005-2006 Steve Nash 3rd 4th 33rd 13th Conf Semi
2004-2005 Steve Nash 1st 1st 61st 16th DNP*
2003-2004 Kevin Garnett 1st 2nd 3rd 1st Lost 1st Rd.
2002-2003 Tim Duncan 1st (Tie) 1st (Tie) 7th 3rd Won 1st Rd.
2001-2002 Tim Duncan 2nd 2nd 5th 2nd Conf Semi
2000-2001 Allen Iverson 1st 2nd (Tie) 1st 7th Won 1st Rd.
1999-2000 Shaquille O'Neal 1st 1st 1st 1st Won 1st Rd.
1998-1999 Karl Malone 1st (Tie) 1st (Tie) 3rd 2nd West Chmp
1997-1998 Michael Jordan 1st 1st (Tie) 1st 4th NBA Chmp
13 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Andrew Palumbo about 1 year ago
Matt,
This is a really solid piece. I like how you've broken down the different stats and given importance to what should matter the most: wins. Let's be honest, the only real "value" a player has to a fan base is the ability to help his team bring the trophy home to a boisterous parade through downtown (not to mention giving us a reason to skip work in order to visit said parade).
Despite my Celtics bias, it's hard to dispute the fact that Chris Paul is having a phenomenal year and very well could be the most valuable player in the NBA to his team and its fan base. The bottom line is that the four players mentioned in your article have all had phenomenal seasons. Personally I hope that Garnett gets screwed in the voting and ends up at least below second place... I can't even imagine seeing him MORE fired up than normal in the playoffs.
Anyway, great analysis of a much-debated topic on the NBA page here at Bleacher Report. Keep it up!
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rob caldwell about 1 year ago
This is a great article bleacherreport needed. I'd heard about the 20 of the last 26 MVP's taking their conference, but hadn't seen it anywhere. An objective statistical breakdown of bias, good stuff.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Good work. LeBron is definitely hurt by team's not great record.
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Akoma Rodriguez about 1 year ago
Loved the article, quality stuff man. With how competitive the West is right now, I think this may be one of those oddball years when the MVP goes to a player who doesn't fit the pattern exactly. The standings are so close, you could still have any of the candidates win from 7th place in the standings like we saw with Michael Jordan. It's a tough race!
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Daniel Muth about 1 year ago
Nice to see some stats in what has mostly been a subjective argument so far on the bleacher report. Unfortunately, they don't clear anything up! They show that the MVP has gone to players in LeBron's conference situation, particular since he ranks first in the most important individual statistics. I think it does show that CP3 has the edge over Kobe in the West, but as you mentioned, Kobe deserves an MVP based on his excellent body of work. KG, while a favorite of mine, probably is coming in last though you could apply the "Nash rule" to him and argue that if you took him outta the lineup, the Celts would struggle. Speaking of Nash, he's sweet, but I think the stats show that he's not a two time MVP, particularly given the fact that Kobe's got nada.
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Matt Bosley about 1 year ago
The way I interpret these numbers, both KG and LeBron have some things working in their favor, but Kobe and CP3 have the characteristics that are most comparable to past MVPs. Kobe has Paul beat as far as scoring, but as I've shown here, scoring has not been considered as much as efficiency and team record.
You're very right, though, about it still being unclear. I think these numbers show just how close each of these four players are in the MVP race.
Will Kobe's career averages come into play? That's the huge question here. If I were to add anything to these stats, I'd include the age of each player at the time they were named MVP. I suspect it'd show that the voting favors older players, but only marginally.
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Michael Whittenberg about 1 year ago
Great article. Paul might be in the lead--but I think this is Kobe's year.
I think the MVP race should go down to these five guys in this particular order:
1. Bryant
2. Paul
3. Garnett
4. LeBron
5. Dwight Howard
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Matt Bosley about 1 year ago
Thanks. I agree with your assessment, but I think that it could go either way between Kobe and Chris Paul.
It could come down to something like FG% where Paul also has Kobe beat (49% vs 46%) or how Chris Paul leads the league in steals and APG.
If the voting was today, I think Chris Paul would win it. Despite how Kobe may be overdue for an MVP award, Chris Paul should have the edge as long as the Hornets stay ahead of the Lakers.
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Daren Georges about 1 year ago
That was a very good assessment of the MVP race. But if you look at little deeper into the teams of the candidates you will see why I going to say that the race is between Kobe and Lebron with Kobe having the edge. If you look at Hornets and the Celtics, those teams are loaded with All-Stars and proven veterans. So guys like Chris Paul and Kevin Garnnet don't have to have to work as hard because the have consitant backup at all times. But if you look at The Lakers and the Cavaliers, they are not as loaded as the other teams. They mostly have young inexperince players and former Allstar and veterans who are on the downside of the careers. And you could also look at the minutes that these players are logging in, there on the top ten in minutes average 40+ minutes. So that what I look at in terms of MVP. I think Kobe finally deserves it. And one more thing, I think that MVP should be judge on constinancy of being a top team in the league for more than two seasos. I think players on teams such as the San Antonio Spurs and the Detroit Pistons should be award with that award not teams who come in first place one year and the next year the 7th, 8th place in the playoffs. The award should be about being consistanly good!
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Matt Bosley about 1 year ago
Unfortunately, as these numbers show, MVP voters tend to disagree with you.
The MVP usually has come from one of the most successful teams in the regular season regardless of how many great players are on that team. The best examples include Steve Nash in '05, Shaq in 2000, and every year Magic Johnson won the award. Very rarely has the MVP ever come from a team that did not have at least one other all-star on it. Based on that, I think it's safe to assume that supporting cast is not taken into account nearly as much as team success and overall efficiency.
Though fans like us may disagree with the system at times, the MVP has not necessarily been about the most valuable player, per se, but rather the standout player on one of the most successful teams. Like it or not, that's the way it's been and there's no substantial reason to expect it to change anytime soon.
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Stew Winkel about 1 year ago
great article. i think team success should be a very important factor in determining NBA MVP - much more so than NFL or MLB. a truly most valuable player in a sport with only five people playing at a time, where the best players play 35-40 minutes of a 48 minute game, should not only put up impressive numbers, but also lead his team to wins.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
New Orleans is leading the West but its hardly dominating it. To me the fact that they only have a 1.5 lead over the lakers and Spurs is almost negligible since the Hornets have not had the injury problems the other teams have had this season. Now if the Hornets were leading the West by 10, maybe even 5 games then CP would be the runaway MVP winner.
unfortunately for the lakers this has been an incredibly extraordinary year for them in terms of injury. The Lakers have played 20 games in which neither Gasol or Bynum has played and posted an 11-9 record in these games. Imagine if Gasol or Bynum had been able to play in just 5 of those 9 losses. It is not inconceivable that they could have turned at least 3 of those games into wins. In that case the lakers would then be leading the west and CP's MVP case would be shattered.
If CP wins the MVP, he will owe it to Bynum, Gasol and Tony Parker for missing all those games that allowed the hornets to (barely) top the west.
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Steven Baird about 1 year ago
Wow, Shaq only won 1 reg. season MVP. Pretty much is a worthless award then. Basketball writers are SUPER LAME!
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