NBA MVP: Team Success Is Crucial
As the debate escalates over who is going to be named the regular season MVP, it's important to consider the criteria traditionally used by the panel of sportswriters and broadcasters charged with making that decision.
If you look closely at MVPs from past years, you'll notice some recurring trends. Here's a rundown of all the MVPs that have been crowned under the current process.
Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā TeamĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā TeamĀ Ā Ā Indv.Ā Ā Indv.Ā Ā Ā Playoff
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Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā StandingĀ Ā Standing Rank Ā Ā RankĀ Ā Ā Ā Result
Year Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Player Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (Conference) (NBA) Ā (PPG)Ā (PER) (Prev. Yr.)
2006-2007Ā Dirk Nowitzki Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā 13th Ā Ā 4thĀ Ā Ā West Chmp
2005-2006Ā Steve Nash Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rd Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 4th Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 33rdĀ Ā Ā 13thĀ Ā Ā Conf Semi
2004-2005Ā Steve Nash Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 61stĀ Ā Ā Ā 16thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā DNP*
2003-2004Ā Kevin Garnett Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rd Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Lost 1st Rd.
2002-2003Ā Tim Duncan Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st (Tie) Ā 1st (Tie)Ā Ā Ā Ā 7thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rdĀ Won 1st Rd.
2001-2002Ā Tim DuncanĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 5thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Conf Semi
2000-2001Ā Allen Iverson Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā 2nd (Tie) Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 7thĀ Won 1st Rd.
1999-2000Ā Shaquille O'Neal Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Won 1st Rd.
1998-1999Ā Karl Malone Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st (Tie)Ā Ā 1st (Tie)Ā Ā Ā 3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā West Chmp
1997-1998Ā Michael Jordan Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st (Tie)Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 4thĀ Ā Ā NBA Chmp
1996-1997Ā Karl Malone Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2nd Ā Ā Ā Ā 2nd Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Conf Semi
1995-1996Ā Michael Jordan Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Won 1st Rd.
1994-1995Ā David Robinson Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rd Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Lost 1st Rd.
1993-1994Ā Hakeem OlajuwonĀ Ā 2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rdĀ Ā Won 1st Rd.
1992-1993Ā Charles Barkley Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā 5th Ā Ā Ā 4th Ā Won 1st Rd.
1991-1992Ā Michael Jordan Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā NBA Chmp
1990-1991Ā Michael Jordan Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2nd Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Conf Semi
1989-1990Ā Magic Johnson Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 18thĀ Ā Ā Ā 4thĀ Ā Ā West Chmp
1988-1989Ā Magic Johnson Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2nd Ā Ā Ā 15thĀ Ā Ā Ā 3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā NBA Chmp
1987-1988Ā Michael Jordan Ā Ā Ā 3rd Ā Ā Ā Ā 7th (Tie)Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Lost 1st Rd.
1986-1987Ā Magic Johnson Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 10thĀ Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Ā Conf Semi
1985-1986Ā Larry Bird Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā 4th Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā East Chmp
1984-1985Ā Larry Bird Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā 2nd Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā NBA Chmp
1983-1984Ā Larry Bird Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā 7th Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Lost 1st Rd.Ā
1982-1983Ā Moses Malone Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 5thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā East Chmp**
1981-1982Ā Moses Malone Ā Ā Ā 4th (Tie)Ā 7th (Tie) Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā West Chmp
1980-1981Ā Julius Erving Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st (Tie) Ā 1st (Tie)Ā Ā 7thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 4thĀ Ā Ā East Chmp
Averages: Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1.38 Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1.88Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 8.27Ā Ā Ā 3.31
*Steve Nash was still on the Mavericks when the Suns failed to make the playoffs in 2003. Nash helped lead the Mavericks through a successful playoff run that ended in the Western Conference Semifinals.Ā
**Moses Malone was traded to the 76ers after the '81-'82 season, so he did not play a part in their winning of the Eastern Conference Finals. His previous team, the Rockets lost in the first round of the 1982 playoffs.
As you can see, the vast majority of season MVPs, 20 out of 26, came from a team that had the best record in their respective conference, if not the entire NBA. It's obvious that team success in the regular season is a major factor when considering a player for MVP. This trend could prove favorable for players like Chris Paul or Kevin Garnett whose teams are likely to end up at or near the top of their conference standings.
What's the next most important statistic?
Basically, it's efficiency. MVPs of the past ranked highly in PER even though this statistic has been commonly used for less than a decade. Even the MVPs whose team did not lead the conference standings ranked higher in PER than they did in scoring.
The few times that the season scoring leader became the season MVP appears merely coincidental. Judging from these numbers, the emphasis on scoring averages has declined. The same could be said for efficiency as well.
A vast majority of these MVPs also competed on teams that had some degree of success in the playoffs the year prior to them being named. This may also be somewhat of a coincidental factor, though.
So based on the trends demonstrated here, who has the best shot at winning the MVP race this year? Let's compare the top names in consideration by the same numbers.
Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā TeamĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā TeamĀ Ā Ā Indv.Ā Ā Indv.Ā Ā Ā Playoff
Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā StandingĀ Ā Standing Rank Ā Ā RankĀ Ā Ā Ā Result
Player Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā (Conference) (NBA) Ā (PPG)Ā (PER) (Prev. Yr.)
Kobe BryantĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 5thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 2ndĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 5thĀ Ā Lost 1st rnd.
LeBron James Ā Ā Ā 4th Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 13thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā East Chmps
Chris Paul Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 21stĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā 3rdĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā DNP
Kevin Garnett Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā 1st Ā Ā Ā 45thĀ Ā Ā Ā 10thĀ Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā DNP
Going by team standing alone, Kevin Garnett is the clear favorite, but his relatively low PER may keep him from getting enough votes. Then again, Steve Nash had similar rankings in '04-'05, his first year on a strong Suns roster that included Amare Stoudamire and Shawn Marion.Ā
In contrast, LeBron James has by far the best PER in the league, but with his team so low in the standings he might not stand much of a chance. On the other hand, Moses Malone was in a similar situation back in '81-'82, as was Michael Jordan in '87-'88.
Kobe's team is ranked high and so are his scoring and efficiency stats. Chris Paul has him beat, though. As long as the Hornets can stay on top of the Western Conference and comfortably ahead of the Lakers, recent trends in MVP voting seem to favor CP3.
Of course, there are other factors that come into play. For instance, some voters may base their judgments of who is the most "overdue" for an award. Others may favor older players figuring that the young ones will have other chances.
Though some of the trends mentioned here are generally applicable, they occasionally get thrown out the window. How else can you explain Steve Nash being named MVP in '05-'06?
Still, based on the tendencies we've seen in past MVP voting, it's pretty safe to say that Chris Paul is in the lead.
...for now.
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.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team š")
