Why JR Smith And Birdman Will Be X-Factors For The Nuggets' Post Season

Nuggets vs Hornets.  The first favorable match up the Nuggets have gotten in a long time. A two vs seven seeding that looks as if the Nuggets will easily move on to round two.  

That is, on paper.

The Nuggets and Hornets were separated by just five games at the end of the regular season.  Also to go with that, the Nuggets split the season series of the Hornets, 2-2.  Why are most people automatically counting the Nuggets into round two?  It baffles me.

The Nuggets have home court advantage throughout most of the playoffs, until they reach the Lakers, if they can.  Even though the Nuggets only lost eight games at home, the Hornets had a winning record on the road.  

The Hornets were 1-1 in the Pepsi Center this year, winning their first match up. They were also 1-1 in "The Hive" on the year, also winning their first match up.

This basically tells us that the teams are nearly equal to each other, in terms of team skill.  I believe that the series will be decided by the Nuggets' X-Factors, JR Smith, and Chris "Bird man" Andersen.

JR Smith, a 4th year player out of high school, can show the New Orleans Hornets a little bit of revenge.  The streaky shooter was drafted by New Orleans, and subsequently traded two years later.  Smith, in his full 3rd year with the Nuggets, started 18 games this year, averaged  career bests in points per game, rebounds per game, and assists per game, despite playing only 27.7 minutes per game.  Smith's stat line was 15.2/3.6/2.8. 

So why would JR Smith be considered an X-Factor?  It would be because of Smith's inconsistency from beyond the three-point line.  

JR Smith can be a beast from beyond the arc.  You'll hear about him hitting seven, eight, and 11 threes in one game.  This is all from the month of April, alone.  But what you won't hear about him, is he attempted 18 threes in one game.  18 threes? We were killing Sacramento, why would he need to attempt 18 threes?  He even attempted one with 30 seconds left, while the Nuggets were up by about 20.

This shows his lack of sportsmanship, and his selfishness on the basketball court.  The Nuggets don't need a player who will jack up threes to try to get his stats up.  We have Carmelo Anthony being out scorer.  We have Chauncey Billups for an outside threat.  Sure an occasional three would be nice here and there, but 18 in one came?  Come on now.

Of Smith's 950 field goal attempts on the year, 453 of them were from the outside. Nearly half of his Smith's shots were 25 footers or more.

He's a great shooter, don't get me wrong, but he's very inconsistent.  He'll take threes when the Nuggets are trying to burn the clock, then there's a hand in his face, anytime.  Smith needs to have a better shot selection.

If JR Smith can either consistently limit his threes attempted, or be a better overall shooter in the series, it will greatly improve the Nuggets' chances.

Chris Andersen, the other Nuggets' X-Factor, should be more of a defensive factor than the offensive Smith.  Andersen, who's second in the league in blocks, with 2.5, will also be facing his former team, the Hornets.  

After being reinstated in the League this year, Andersen showed what raw athleticism can do.  While playing just 20 minutes per game this year,  Andersen averaged 6.2 rebounds per game, along with his block total.  Impressive stuff for a Andersen, regardless of how many minutes he played.

One thing I like about Andersen, is that he actually plays defense.  Don't be fooled by Camby, who won the Defensive Player of the Year last year. If you watched him play, he didn't get his blocks by playing tough, man to man defense. He would back off of his guy, wait for him to get an open look, and hope he blocks the shot.

Andersen is a little different than that.  The hard-nosed, shot blocking machine out of Blinn College in Houston, is averaging 14.5 rebounds, and 5.75 blocks per 48 minutes, an incredible stat.

If Smith and Andersen can contribute to their fullest potential, I see why there wouldn't be a problem getting past the Hornets.  However, if Smith can't find his stoke early in the game, and Andersen doesn't get the minutes to perform, I can honestly see the Hornets taking this series.  However, I believe George Karl will be able to get Andersen in the game, and take out Smith when needed.

Predicted Series Outcome:  If Smith and Andersen do well, Nuggets in 6.  If they don't, Hornets in 7.  I believe this Series can go either way, in any amount of games. Easily the most overlooked series in the Playoffs, I think the Hornets have the capable players to pull off an upset.