I discovered a fun tool over at Baseball Musings the other day that analyzes any nine-man lineup, and suggests an "optimal" lineup.
If you enter the player's name, on-base-percentage, and slugging percentage, the tool will also predict the average number of runs scored per game.
Needless to say, it is a very fun tool. I found myself messing around with it for hours over the weekend.
I found the lineups for every team over at RotoTimes, so I punched in every team's lineup, got the stats over at Baseball Reference, and I was off.
Now, before I am flooded with comments charging that I have bad information, that I am missing key players, or that I am completely loony, I think it is time for a disclaimer:
These lineups were taken from RotoTimes on March 29th. Anything that has happened since then was not taken into account when I put this together.
This list does not include injured players. For example, Detroit's Curtis Granderson, who would be a starter, is not included in the Tiger's optimal lineup.
Please just take this for what it is: a neat way to see how your team stacks up against the other teams in the league, and for you to see if there are any changes that your teams' manager needs to make.
Let's dive in, shall we?
AL East
Baltimore Orioles
Current lineup: Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, Luke Scott, Kevin Millar, Adam Jones, Luis Hernandez
Average with current lineup: 4.992 runs
Optimal lineup: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar, Luke Scott, Luis Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Adam Jones, Ramon Hernandez
Average with optimal lineup: 5.051 runs
Difference per season: 9.558 runs
Boston Red Sox
Current lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek, Julio Lugo
Average with current lineup: 6.011 runs
Optimal lineup: Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Manny Ramirez, Julio Lugo, Jason Varitek, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew
Average with optimal lineup: 6.090 runs
Difference per season: 12.798 runs
New York Yankees
Current lineup: Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera
Average with current lineup: 6.009 runs
Optimal lineup: Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, Bobby Abreu, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Melky Cabrera, Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon
Average with optimal lineup: 6.118 runs
Difference per season: 17.658 runs
Tampa Bay Rays
Current lineup: Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, Cliff Floyd, Jonny Gomes, Willy Aybar, Dioner Navarro, Jason Bartlett
Average with current lineup: 5.466 runs
Optimal lineup: Cliff Floyd, Carlos Pena, Akinori Iwamura, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford, Dioner Navarro, Willy Aybar, Jonny Gomes, Jason Bartlett
Average runs with optimal lineup: 5.537 runs
Difference per season: 11.502 runs
Toronto Blue Jays
Current lineup: David Eckstein, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Frank Thomas, Lyle Overbay, Shannon Stewart, Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro, Gregg Zaun
Average with current lineup: 4.899 runs
Optimal lineup: David Eckstein, Frank Thomas, Gregg Zaun, Alex Rios, Aaron Hill, Lyle Overbay, Shannon Stewart, Vernon Wells, Marco Scutaro
Average with optimal lineup: 4.963 runs
Difference per season: 10.368 runs
Check back soon for the rest of the MLB!
AL Central
7 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Nathaniel Stoltz about 1 year ago
Can't believe Luis Hernandez 6th in BAL, Floyd, Posada, and Eckstein leading off.
I'm curious, could you mess around with some of the backups and see if you can make an even better lineup? For example Stairs in LF instead of S. Stewart, Shelley Duncan over Johnny Damon, or just stuff like that. That way we would know the optimal lineup of people on the 25-man roster.
And yeah, I've used that tool a bit before, it's good stuff. Look forward to seeing the rest.
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Andrew Kneeland about 1 year ago
Yes, you can enter whichever player you want, provided you have their stats.
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Michael Taylor about 1 year ago
I enjoyed this tool also. I used it to do an article about the Indians second batter a few weeks ago. I was amazed at the results. The Indians were projected out, using Marcel Projections, at 5.9 runs per game or nearly 900 runs for the season! Not bad.
Good stuff!
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Andrew Kneeland about 1 year ago
That is amazing. 900 runs in a season?
Thanks for the comment!
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Jeremy Kaufman about 1 year ago
Jorge Posada leading off? You can't be serious. I know he has a high on base percentage, but he's horribly slow and would simply clog up the bases. In addition, you would be completely wasting his ability to drive in runs. I know that the lineups came from your program and not for you, but the "optimal" lineup for the yankees is horribly put together.
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Andrew Kneeland about 1 year ago
You have to remember that the only thing that this tool takes into account is on-base-percentage and slugging percentage.
There will be errors, but thanks for the comment.
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Nino Colla about 1 year ago
I think this is interesting. In most cases it put the teams best hitter(typically the 3 spot) in the 2nd position. Pena, Ortiz, A-Rod, Markakis are all 3 hole hitters(you could make a case for the Big Hurt as well) yet the optimal lineup has them 2nd.
Did anyone else laugh though at Jacoby Ellsbury in the cleanup spot ahead of Manny? Aside from Cliff Floyd leading off that was probably the one I got the most kick out of.
Neat tool indeed.
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