Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
It's once again time to warn against gambling too much. Twelve of the last 20 Final Four teams have been No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, so you better pick at least two to advance to the Final Four.
This is also where you probably want to wipe out any seeds No. 6 or lower. Only two such teams—eighth-seeded Butler and 11th-seeded VCU, both in 2011—have made it to the Final Four in the last five seasons.
Those were two unique cases in a crazy tournament that saw Connecticut, a team that went .500 in Big East play, win the title. Maybe this year will be a repeat, but it's not likely.
If that's not enough for you to temper your gambles here, consider that the last time any team with a six, seven, nine, 10 or 12 next to their name made the Final Four was Michigan as a No. 6 in 1992. There isn't a Fab Five in this bracket.
(5) VCU over (3) Florida: The Gators, like the Rams, try to speed up their opponents with pressure. The one team that tries to do the same in the SEC, Arkansas, handed Florida its worst loss of the season. VCU is better at forcing turnovers than the Razorbacks and definitely a better team.
(4) Saint Louis over (3) Michigan State: We've already knocked out Duke, so Sparty is the most likely opponent here. Sparty matches up pretty well with the Billikens, but the team that Rick Majerus built would have two advantages. 1) SLU's guards are more reliable than Keith Appling; and 2) SLU's big men can shoot outside and would pull Derrick Nix away from the paint and out of his comfort zone.