Mets to Win NL East? Think Again.

ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Las Vegas Odds.  You name the preseason prediction, you have the New York Mets winning the NL East.  All of the pundits say that the addition of Johan Santana to their starting rotation will seal the deal and they will run away with the,  division.

Johan Santana could quite possibly be the best pitcher in the Major Leagues., but it's going one step too far to say that his addition will win the Mets a division title.

Let's take a look.

If everything goes like it should, barring any type of injury, Santana will start roughly 30 games for the Mets this year.  Santana has only had one 20 win season and averaged a 16-7 record over the past five years.

The Metrodome and Shea Stadium are fairly similar ballparks, Shea Stadium slightly favoring the hitter a little more than the pitcher.  So for the sake of conversation, we'll assume that Santana will be 16-7 this year.

If we look at the Mets' starting rotation at the beginning of the 2007 season we see it looked something like Glavine, Hernandez, Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey.  Looking at this year's expected rotation we see Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey.

So Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey being negligable, Santana and Pedro replace Glavine and Hernandez in the 2008 starting rotation.  Glavine went 13-8 last year and Hernandez went 9-5.

Putting Glavine and Hernandez through the same averaging that we put Santana through, we could assume that Glavine would be 13-10 and that Hernandez would be 9-6.

It is impossible to predict what Pedro Martinez will do this year considering his injury history and age.  However, for the sake of conversation and judging from his history with the Mets and age, we'll assume he will go somewhere in the area of 10-6.

If we compare the average wins of Glavine/Hernandez with the average wins of Santana/Pedro it would appear as if the Mets would gain about four wins.

This, leaving the Phillies record unchanged, would place the Mets in first place—3 games ahead of the Phillies.  But that Phillies record won't just stay stagnant.

The Phillies improved in the offseason as well.  Brad Lidge, a dominant pitcher in need of change of scenery, was added to the bullpen.  Brett Myers was put back in the starting rotation where he has the potential of being a near 20 game winner.

We don't even have to touch their offense.  They have the best infield in the Major Leagues with Utley, Howard, and Rollins all being contenders for MVP.  They lost Aaron Rowand but replaced him with Geoff Jenkins who will have a field day hitting in Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies can definitely improve on their 89-73 record, especially considering more than 20 of their 25 men that started out on their roster last year wound up on the DL at one point or another.

That being said, Johan Santana does not in any way seal the deal in the NL East.  The other 24 men on the Mets' roster have to execute and the Mets still have to do one thing they can't seem to do too well. 

Beat the Phillies—at home or away.