GSP vs. Diaz: Odds and Prediction for UFC 158's Main Event

UFC 158 is just hours away from kicking off, and the time is near to put an end to all the hype. Georges St. Pierre will get the fight he demanded as he defends the UFC Welterweight Championship against Nick Diaz.

The fight is a long time in the making.

The champion will enter as a heavy favorite—and for good reason. He is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and his style is a near perfect match to dominate the challenger.

Diaz loves to stand and bang. He has very good boxing skills, but he doesn't check leg kicks much and has trouble with fighters who utilize excellent footwork. The Carlos Condit fight is a shining example of this.

GSP's boxing is fantastic, he utilizes leg kicks well and he is one of the most athletic 170-pounders in the world. His movement can make it hard for Diaz to do damage in this fight.

St. Pierre's biggest advantage in the fight is his wrestling. Diaz does not defend the takedown all that well, and GSP is the best takedown artist in the division. His diversity and timing are unmatched. Diaz has had trouble with wrestlers in the past.

Everything points to a relatively academic GSP victory.

Not so fast.

I think Diaz takes the welterweight strap back to Stockton, California.

GSP is great at sticking to a game plan. When he fought Jake Shields, he didn't want to risk going to the ground and chose to use his striking to dominate. When he took on dangerous strikers, he took them down. Diaz is skilled in both areas, which will make GSP take more risks in his game plan.

Does GSP want to strike with Diaz, or does GSP want to try and smother him from top control?

The most important factor of this fight will be GSP's mindset.

UFC President Dana White has said that GSP told him he wants to “retire” Diaz. That does not sound like a man who wants to use top control to grind out another championship decision. That sounds like a man who wants to inflict punishment.

He is very capable of doing just that, but in the process of trying to finish Diaz, he opens himself up to being caught.

If he gets overzealous on his feet, Diaz will be waiting with a counter. If he takes risks on the mat trying to beat up the challenger, he will open the door for a submission to be slapped on. He can be cautious on top, but he won't be doing much damage. When he tries to be offensive, he will be open to retaliation. That is where he will get caught.

GSP is a durable fighter. He has only been caught a couple of times. Matt Serra hit him behind the ear and knocked his equilibrium off. Carlos Condit most recently dropped him, in GSP's last title defense, with a head kick. Diaz is not a fighter who throws haymakers, but one well-placed shot with four-ounce gloves is all it takes.

The champion will get countered. Diaz will land a clean shot on the jaw to stagger the champion, and he won't be able to recover. The volume of punches from Diaz will not allow GSP to get back in the fight, and the referee will step in to stop it.

Diaz will represent the 209 well. Stockton's son will walk into hostile territory and bring home gold.

Odds: St. Pierre (-500) against Diaz (+350) from Bovada

Prediction: Diaz defeats GSP by TKO in the second round.