Floyd Mayweather Jr. is a huge favorite against Robert Guerrero in their scheduled bout for May 4, but that doesn’t mean that “Money” should be 100 percent confident he is going to win.
While the bookmakers have the undefeated boxer at -1100 on the moneyline and the underdog at +700, we believe the true odds aren’t nearly as far apart.
This fight isn’t just a tune-up for Mayweather to get in shape for an eventual showdown with Saul Alvarez, but rather has the look of a contest that could be closer than many imagined it would be when it was first agreed upon.
Remember, Money hasn’t stepped into the ring since May 5 of 2012, when he scored a unanimous decision against Miguel Cotto. In the time period following, Mayweather did a stint in jail that the fighter claimed was debilitating towards his future in boxing.
If those two months in prison truly impacted the 36-year-old’s career, we’re going to find out in this bout. Mayweather has taken extended stretches off in the past, but never had to deal with the limitations of a jail cell and meal plan.
Couple that with his rapidly advancing age and there’s a chance that Money just may not be as ready for this fight as he has been for others in his past.
Even if you don’t factor in Mayweather’s limitations leading up to this match, Guerrero deserves more credit than the public is giving him.
The 29-year-old isn’t just some jobber off the streets, but rather a decorated pugilist that has gone 31-1-1 (18 KOs) during his career. He currently holds the WBC Welterweight title and has proven himself in four different divisions since turning professional in 2001.
He spent some time away from the sport a few years ago to be with his wife while she battled leukemia, but has been back with a vengeance since returning.
Who will win?
Guerrero absolutely dominated Andre Berto last November and looked like a fighter that could actually give Mayweather a run for his money.
If he brings that intensity and style into the ring on May 4, coupled with an ill-prepared Mayweather looking ahead to a future fight with Alvarez, an upset could easily happen.
Floyd may be 43-0 during his career, but even the giants stumble in this sport—especially as they advance in age.