2013 March Madness Bubble Watch: Latest Odds on Fringe Teams for Week of Mar. 4

Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

Let the Madness begin.

March is officially here, and as such, the NCAA tournament picture is beginning to clear up with many teams "clinching" their spots in the Big Dance, and many, well, clinching their spots in the NIT and CBI. 

That being said, with conference tournaments just around the corner, every school still has at least a sliver of hope, and there are still plenty of unforeseen twists and turns ahead on the bracketology horizon. 

Let's take a look at where every tourney hopeful sits as the final week of the regular season gets underway. 

Note: All RPI and strength of schedule numbers come from BBState.com. Those numbers will vary slightly depending on where you look.

Also note: All stats and numbers are from games up until March 5. 

Big Ten

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Locks

Indiana Hoosiers

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan State Spartans

Ohio State Buckeyes

Wisconsin Badgers 

 

Comfortable

Illinois Fighting Illini

Here we are with a week left in the regular season, and the Illini are still nearly impossible to figure out. They boast wins over two potential No. 1 seeds in Gonzaga and Indiana, but then they go and beat Nebraska at home by just seven.

Still, a win at Iowa or Ohio State should wrap up a spot in the tourney for John Groce's squad. 

 

Minnesota Golden Gophers

The win over Indiana all but locked up a spot for the Golden Gophers, who are now No. 16 in the RPI.

 

Bubble

Iowa Hawkeyes

For whatever it's worth, I've got Iowa going deep in the ever-popular NIT bracket pool, but it will likely take a trip to the finals of the Big Ten tournament for the Hawkeyes to have a shot at an at-large bid to the real dance.  

 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Northwestern Wildcats

Penn State Nittany Lions

Purdue Boilermakers

Big East

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Locks

Georgetown Hoyas

Louisville Cardinals

Marquette Golden Eagles

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Pittsburgh Panthers

Syracuse Orange

 

Comfortable 

Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats missed out on a signature win at Louisville on Monday night, but as long as they don't slip up against 11-17 South Florida, they have a resume better than most bubble teams. 

 

Bubble  

Saint John's Red Storm

The Johnnies are all but eliminated from the Big Dance, but wins at Notre Dame and at home against Marquette would quickly re-enter them into serious talks. 

 

Villanova Wildcats

'Nova is directly on the bubble.

Whether or not the Wildcats are currently in the field of 68 depends on who you ask, but they should treat Wednesday's matchup with Georgetown as a must-win. 

 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

DePaul Blue Demons

Providence Friars

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Seton Hall Pirates

South Florida Bulls

*Connecticut is ineligible for postseason play. 

Pac-12

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Locks

Arizona Wildcats

Oregon Ducks

UCLA Bruins

 

Comfortable

California Golden Bears

There aren't many teams that are more on fire than Cal, and there are certainly none that have went from "outside the bubble" to "nearing lock status" so quickly. 

 

Colorado Buffaloes

The Buffs have solid computer numbers (RPI 27, SOS 19), but just 19 wins overall and nine in the Pac-12. While they should be safe, a good showing at home against the Oregon schools this week will be key. 

 

Bubble

Arizona State Sun Devils

The dream of seeing Jahii Carson on the biggest of stages appears to be over. The Sun Devils have lost three in a row and dropped to 93 in the RPI. 

 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Oregon State Beavers

Stanford Cardinal

USC Trojans

Utah Utes

Washington Huskies

Washington State Cougars

ACC

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Locks

Duke Blue Devils

Miami Hurricanes

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina State Wolfpack

 

Comfortable 

No one

 

Bubble

Maryland Terrapins

The Terps are currently outside the bubble, but they can still help themselves against North Carolina and at Virginia. 

 

Virginia Cavaliers

The Cavaliers remains the biggest question mark of the tournament. 

They are 7-2 against the top 100 and now boast a win against No. 1 Duke, but they are also just 13-7 against teams outside the top 100, which includes a loss against No. 316 Old Dominion. 

Still, with the softness of this year's bubble, it would be difficult to keep a team with Virginia's potential out. 

 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Boston College Eagles

Clemson Tigers

Florida State Seminoles

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Virginia Tech Hokies

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Big 12

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Locks

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas State Wildcats

Oklahoma State Cowboys

 

Comfortable 

Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners slipped up against Texas, but responded with a win over Iowa State and are still safe assuming they beat West Virginia and TCU to close out the regular season. 

 

Bubble

Baylor Bears

The Bears aren't making it easy for themselves. They let an opportunity for a huge win against Kansas State slip away with a crushing late-game mistake and followed it up with a loss to Texas. 

It's time to beat Kansas at home. 

 

Iowa State Cyclones

The Cyclones have lost two in a row and desperately need to beat Oklahoma State at home on Wednesday. 

 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

West Virginia Mountaineers 

Texas Longhorns

TCU Horned Frogs

Texas Tech Red Raiders

SEC

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Locks

Florida Gators

 

Comfortable

Missouri Tigers

Missouri's resume isn't anything special, but it's good enough to push the Tigers into the Big Dance.  

 

Bubble

Kentucky Wildcats

The Wildcats are now 3-2 without Nerlens Noel, but two of the losses were a 30-point beating at Tennessee and a defeat at Arkansas, their worst of the season in terms of RPI. 

Nevertheless, John Calipari's squad is in with a win over Florida on Saturday. 

 

Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss is slowly moving to the wrong side of the bubble. The Rebels' loss at Mississippi State (RPI 229) was disastrous. 

 

Alabama Crimson Tide

The Crimson Tide are quietly 11-5 in the SEC, but after losing to Florida, they don't have a signature win. 

Two more wins against Mississippi and Georiga, along with a couple in the SEC tourney, should do the trick for the Tide. 

 

The Rest (alphabetical order)

Arkansas Razorbacks

Auburn Tigers

Georgia Bulldogs

LSU Tigers

Mississippi State Bulldogs

South Carolina Gamecocks

Texas A&M Aggies

Tennessee Volunteers

Vanderbilt Commodores

The Rest

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Locks

Butler Bulldogs

Colorado State Rams

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Memphis Tigers

New Mexico Lobos

Saint Louis Billikens

San Diego State Aztecs

UNLV Rebels

VCU Rams

 

Comfortable

Creighton Bluejays

St. Mary's Gaels

Wichita State Shockers

 

Bubble

Akron Zips

Belmont Bruins

Boise State Broncos

La Salle Explorers

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Temple Owls