Violence, the wonderfully talented three-year-old that is trained by Todd Pletcher isn't just the best horse in the $400,000 Grade Two Fountain of Youth, but the race is set up perfectly for him.
Violence is undefeated in three career starts, including a dazzling win at Hollywood Park on Dec. 15, where he stalked a solid early pace and won by a length in 1:43.2. I really like the solid works this horse has posted in February at Pimlico.
Cerro appears to be the main danger in this Kentucky Derby preparation race. After starting his career on the turf, this Graham Motion trained horse made an easy transition to the dirt, where he won his last race wire to wire. I really like that his horse is cutting back in distance from his last race, a win at nine furlongs in 1:50.1. The bad news, however, is that Javier Castellano opts off this horse and went to Violence.
Cerro's biggest threat could be the early fractions. This race is loaded with pace setting speed, such as Elmutahid, Falling Sky and Majestic Hussar. All of these horses should be the near the lead early, but I'm not sure they will be in the picture late.
Majestic Hussar is my long-shot special, but only if the track has moisture in it. Based on the weather reports for the day, chances of rain are in the forecast and it would really help thisGrade Two Fountain of Youth trained horse. With two wins and a second place finish in three career off track starts, this horse would be a big threat to take the lead early and not look bad.
If the main track is dry, I like Orb, the Claude McGaughey trained colt. In his last start, Orb stalked a moderate pace and closed beautifully to win in 1:51 flat. John Velazquez picks up the mount on this horse who is also losing two pounds from his previous start.
Regardless of the track condition, expect quite a few horses to challenge for the lead early. I absolutely like Majestic Hussar to be the main speed early, with Violence sitting just a few lengths off the lead with Orb. Violence should make a bold move after six furlongs and have the lead at the top of the stretch. Violence will hold off Orb and a fading Majestic Hussar by less than two lengths.