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2013 March Madness Bubble Watch: Latest Odds on Fringe Teams for Week of Feb. 18

Tim KeeneyContributor IOctober 20, 2016

2013 March Madness Bubble Watch: Latest Odds on Fringe Teams for Week of Feb. 18

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    Compared to the rest of the college basketball season, this past week was dull.

    Of course, that's more of a statement on the unpredictability of the season as a whole more than anything else. While this seems like the first time since Clinton was in office that a No. 1 escaped the week unscathed, upsets were still abound. 

    Rivalry week caught Duke (at Maryland), Michigan (at Michigan State) and Syracuse (at Connecticut) off-guard, and as a result, the top five saw a major shakeup. 

    Meanwhile, the rest of the March Madness picture is beginning to clear up ever so slightly as conference play hits the home stretch.

    Note: All RPI and Strength of Schedule numbers come from BBState.com. Those numbers will vary slightly depending on where you look.

    Also note: All stats and numbers are from games up until before Feb. 11. 

Big Ten

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    Big East

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      *Connecticut is ineligible for postseason play. 

    Pac-12

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      Locks

      Arizona Wildcats

       

      Comfortable

      Colorado Buffaloes

      One of the most polarizing seasons continued as Colorado knocked off Arizona at home, but responded by losing to Arizona State. 

      Still, at No. 24 in the RPI, the Buffs are safe. 

       

      Oregon Ducks

      The Ducks got two much-needed wins at the Washington schools without Dominic Artis, and they now comfortably have an RPI of 37 with a legitimate shot at the Pac-12 title. 

       

      UCLA Bruins

      The Bruins were run out of Haas Pavilion against Cal, but they responded with a win at Stanford and still have a resume that is good enough. 

       

      Bubble

      Arizona State Sun Devils

      Call this past week a wash, as the Sun Devils lost to Utah (RPI 172) and beat Colorado (RPI 24).

      As it stands, ASU looks like good candidate for a play-in game. It has a good shot at double-digit conference wins but has an average resume (RPI 68, SOS 119). 

       

      California Golden Bears

      The Bears are surging.

      They followed up a road win at Arizona with a home sweep against the Southern California schools, and as long as Mike Montgomery doesn't knock out any of his players, this team has the momentum to make the tourney. 

      A good showing at Oregon this week would be monumental for Allen Crabbe and company. 

       

      The Rest (alphabetical order)

      Oregon State Beavers

      Stanford Cardinal

      USC Trojans

      Utah Utes

      Washington Huskies

      Washington State Cougars

    ACC

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      Locks

      Duke Blue Devils

      Miami Hurricanes

       

      Comfortable 

      NC State Wolfpack

      They weren't pretty, but NC State got two narrow wins at Clemson and against Virginia Tech.

      The Wolfpack are treading water because of good computer numbers (RPI 22, SOS 19), but they are not playing well right now. 

       

      Bubble

      Maryland Terrapins

      Maryland's resume was looking awfully ugly, but a win over Duke immediately changed that. 

      However, the Terps still have an RPI of 63, an SOS of 92 and just two wins in the top 85, and their work is far from done.

      Nevertheless, they are firmly back in the bubble conversation. 

       

      North Carolina Tar Heels

      The computers love UNC (RPI 31, SOS 16), but the Heels have just one top-50 win and are struggling with inconsistency in conference play.

      For what it's worth, the media did a mock selection process last week, and the Tar Heels didn't make it

       

      Virginia Cavaliers

      Virginia continues to have easily the most intriguing resume of any team. 

      The Cavaliers are an amazing 6-1 against the top 100 after a loss to UNC, but have six losses outside the top 100, including a home defeat to Old Dominion (RPI 323). 

      An RPI of 81 does not bode well, but it's a fairly weak bubble, and the Cavs still have Miami and Duke left on the slate. 

       

      The Rest (alphabetical order)

      Boston College Eagles

      Clemson Tigers

      Florida State Seminoles

      Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

      Virginia Tech Hokies

      Wake Forest Demon Deacons

    Mountain West

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      Locks

      Colorado State Rams

      New Mexico Lobos

       

      Comfortable

      San Diego State Aztecs

      The Aztecs lost two games this week, but they were close defeats on the road against Colorado State and UNLV. They won't be hurt by that. 

      An RPI of 32, a SOS of 33 and two top-15 wins should have them feeling safe, no matter the 6-5 conference record. 

       

      UNLV Rebels

      UNLV continues to be up and down. The Rebels lost at Air Force and beat San Diego State this week, keeping them just one game over .500 in the conference. 

      Much like the Aztecs, though, the Rebels have encouraging computer numbers (RPI 19, SOS 23). 

       

      Bubble

      Air Force Falcons

      The Falcons have beaten both San Diego State and UNLV, but they have an RPI of 70 and a weak non-conference showing.  

      I'm not ready to count out Michael "Jordan" Lyons, but Air Force's time may be running out soon. 

       

      Boise State Broncos

      The Broncos are sticking around with an RPI of 32, but they are going to have to start scoring some wins very soon. They have just two top-50 victories and are 4-6 in the conference. 

       

      The Rest (alphabetical order)

      Nevada Wolf Pack

      Fresno State Bulldogs

      Wyoming Cowboys

    Big 12

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      Locks

      Kansas Jayhawks

      Kansas State Wildcats

      Oklahoma State Cowboys

       

      Comfortable 

      Oklahoma Sooners

      While the Sooners are safe with an RPI of 17 and an SOS of 4, I'd like to see them play a few more games without Buddy Hield, although they looked good against Oklahoma State sans the freshman guard. 

       

      Bubble

      Baylor Bears

      It's not going to be easy for Baylor, which sits at 7-5 in the conference with an RPI of just 53.

      The Bears still have to take on Oklahoma and a Texas squad with Myck Kabongo on the road, while they also have to host Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State. 

       

      Iowa State Cyclones

      The Cyclones were the unfortunate opponent for Kabongo's return, and that Texas loss won't look good on the increasingly shaky resume. 

       

      The Rest (alphabetical order)

      West Virginia Mountaineers 

      Texas Longhorns

      TCU Horned Frogs

      Texas Tech Red Raiders

    SEC

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      Locks

      Florida Gators

       

      Comfortable

      Missouri Tigers

      The Tigers won at Mississippi State and lost at Arkansas, thus capping off yet another 1-1 week. 

      They are still safe, but they has been pretty underwhelming lately and shouldn't feel overly confident. 

       

      Bubble

      Kentucky Wildcats

      The Wildcats are in trouble. The committee will likely judge them on how they look without Nerlens Noel, and the early returns are disastrous. 

       

      Ole Miss Rebels

      Ole Miss went 1-1 this week, but with an RPI of 47 and just one top-70 win, it can ill-afford more losses to squads like Texas A&M.

       

      Alabama Crimson Tide

      With two more wins, the Crimson Tide are sneaking up on the rest of the country. They now sit at 17-8 overall and 9-3 in the SEC. 

      Alabama's best win, however, is against Kentucky, and it's computer numbers (RPI 58, SOS 70) aren't fantastic. There is still work to be done. 

       

      The Rest (alphabetical order)

      Arkansas Razorbacks

      Auburn Tigers

      Georgia Bulldogs

      LSU Tigers

      Mississippi State Bulldogs

      South Carolina Gamecocks

      Texas A&M Aggies

      Tennessee Volunteers

      Vanderbilt Commodores

    The Rest

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      Locks

      Gonzaga Bulldogs

      Butler Bulldogs

       

      Bubble (In order of RPI)

      Belmont Bruins

      Memphis Tigers

      Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

      Wichita State Shockers

      Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

      La Salle Explorers

      VCU Rams

      Creighton Bluejays

      Saint Louis Billikens

      Akron Zips

      Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

      Saint Mary's Gaels

      Temple Owls

      Charlotte 49ers

      Massachusetts Minutemen

      Indiana State Sycamores

      Bucknell Bison

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