Chiefs Mock Draft: Who Are the Experts Projecting to Kansas City in Round 1?
The Super Bowl concluded over a week ago and the aftermath is over. The Kansas City Chiefs are on the clock, and have complete control of this draft.
With the No. 1 pick on hand, the Chiefs can take who they think is the best player who can come and help turn the franchise around. After a 2-14 year, the Chiefs must avoid the idea of trading away the top pick and take their next franchise player.
Draft evaluators have spent a lot of time looking at the Chiefs needs and the best player available. Many have provided their take on who Kansas City should pick.
In this slideshow, I will feature several mock drafts that show which player is projected to go to the Chiefs. Along with that, I will provide my response to each expert's prediction and analysis.
Along with my response, you guys are more than welcome to chime in with yours as well!
Matt Miller's Prediction
1 of 7Expert
Date
Feb. 3, 2013
Selection
Luke Joeckel, T, Texas A&M
Reason
Branden Albert is a fine player at left tackle, but he's a free agent who missed four games to injury. He's also not part of the new regime of Andy Reid and John Dorsey. While Albert is an asset as a pass protector, his run blocking is subpar, and there are great concerns about his back injury and overall cost. If he's willing to re-sign and wanted, that will change things, but as of today, Albert's status in the team's plans is unknown.
Farzin’s Response
Although Branden Albert actually missed three games, it is still a known fact that he's had injury issues in the past. He's only played 16 games in one season once in his career.
If Albert demands a lot of money, new general manager John Dorsey might not be fond of that idea because of the fact he's missed seven games since entering the league in 2007, which is a lot for a first-round pick. If that is the case, the move to take Luke Joeckel becomes very likely.
It is still early, but hopefully Albert's agent and the Chiefs are communicating.
Daniel Jeremiah's Prediction
2 of 7Expert
Daniel Jeremiah from NFL.com and NFL Network
Date
Feb. 8, 2013
Selection
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Reason
If the Chiefs are unable to re-sign offensive tackle Branden Albert, this pick will likely be spent on Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel. Assuming Albert's still around, I could see Andy Reid making the decision to roll the dice with Smith's upside at the quarterback position.
Farzin’s Response
Sometimes these mock drafts also reveal what experts predict will happen before the draft.
In this case, Daniel Jeremiah seems confident that the Chiefs will keep Albert around. As for Geno Smith, I don't have a problem with him being taken first overall. Who is to say that Smith is not worth the top pick?
Look at the 2007 draft class. The quarterbacks taken in the first round, JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, haven't found success in the league, but those two were expected to do well in the NFL and were considered worthy of being taken No. 1 overall.
With that said, Smith is certainly worth taking with the top pick if the Chiefs have filled their gap at the left tackle position.
Walter Cherepinsky's Prediction
3 of 7Expert
Date
Feb. 6, 2013
Selection
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Reason
1. New regimes mean new quarterbacks, and if history is any indication, Reid will use this pick on Smith. Reid eschewed all the top free-agent quarterbacks when he took over as the Eagles' head coach, taking a mobile, Big East product with a good deep ball and upside instead. Well, Smith is a mobile, (former) Big East product with a good deep ball and upside. He fits perfectly into Reid's offense.
4. My Chiefs' source, who has a high success rate of delivering Kansas City's first-round picks, told me Smith is currently the favorite to go No. 1 overall, but conceded that it's still too early in the process. He said that the combination of Joeckel and Tyler Wilson is also a strong possibility.
Farzin’s Response
Walter Cherepinsky provided four different reasons as to why the Chiefs will take Smith. I listed two of those four reasons and his fourth one is very interesting.
He also makes a valid point when he says a new regime translates into a new starting quarterback. A majority of the time, it happens through the draft.
With Kansas City owning the No. 1 pick, taking Smith after a 2-14 record makes sense. As many remember, in Reid's first year with the Philadelphia Eagles, Donovan McNabb was taken with the second overall pick in the 1999 draft. Reid finds himself with a new team and could follow up with the same move in his first draft with the Chiefs.
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Dane Brugler's Prediction
4 of 7Expert
Date
Feb. 3, 2013
Selection
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Reason
Shortly after Andy Reid was hired in Philadelphia in 1999, he drafted a quarterback second overall (Donovan McNabb) and although he received criticism for the pick, it turned out to be the correct choice. Selecting Geno Smith No. 1 would bring some of the same criticism by some, but it would give the Chiefs a talented quarterback to build around.
Farzin’s Response
Dane Brugler has a very interesting analysis and brings up a great point about the criticism that comes along with taking Smith and how that could be very similar to the heat the Eagles and Reid caught in 1999 after drafting McNabb.
However, Reid is not the kind who pays any attention to the media or to what fans have to say.
He and Dorsey join forces and combine their football knowledge in Kansas City. Reid and Dorsey might make a lot of moves that have fans scratching their heads. Taking Smith could be one of them.
Brad Clark's Prediction
5 of 7Expert
Date
Feb. 6, 2013
Selection
Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
Reason
I can’t wait for free agency to begin so we can finally put to rest all the nonsense about the first pick. Will the Chiefs re-sign Brandon Albert? Will they pick up a veteran via trade or free agency? No one knows, so there’s no sense in speculating. Until something happens to that end, I’ll be going with Geno Smith to the Chiefs.
Farzin’s Response
It sure seems Brad Clark is avoiding the speculation pool and thinks the Chiefs' offseason will go smoothly. Albert stays in Kansas City and Smith goes to the Chiefs.
Easier said than done.
The negotiation talks between Albert's agent and the Chiefs may not be an easy one. The two parties will spend a lot of time talking. But hopefully Clark is right. In the end, retaining Albert eliminates a need going into the draft and allows Kansas City to focus on another need.
Perhaps that other top need becomes quarterback.
Michael Schottey's Prediction
6 of 7Expert
Date
Feb. 6, 2013
Selection
Luke Joeckel, T, Texas A&M
Reason
Albert isn't worth the money he'll want as an LT, so the Chiefs would be wise to go with Joeckel and pick up a band-aid at quarterback—someone like Alex Smith or Matt Moore. It isn't ideal, but it's better than swinging and missing on a quarterback that isn't worth the top pick in the draft.
Farzin’s Response
My question is, why would the Chiefs pick up Alex Smith or Matt Moore when they could get someone better, like Geno Smith? Alex Smith has had a roller coaster career while Moore has shown some upside at times. Both quarterbacks would be an upgrade over what the Chiefs have.
But would you rather take Alex Smith or Moore and go with Joeckel? Or would you rather take Geno Smith and find a tackle through free agency or later in the draft? (Or retain Albert?)
Anyone would take Alex Smith and Moore over Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn, but not going after a better option in Geno Smith would prevent this team from reaching its potential.
Josh Norris' Prediction
7 of 7Expert
Josh Norris from NFL.com
Date
Feb. 6, 2013
Selection
Geno Smith, QB, Chiefs
Reason
The process prior to the draft will likely dictate this pick, with the Chiefs either acquiring a quarterback and/or re-signing Branden Albert to starting left tackle money. Many will note the short shelf life of a head coach who selects a failed first-round quarterback, but Andy Reid needs to take this chance if he doesn't find the answer elsewhere.
Farzin’s Response
Josh Norris evaluated this pick the best. The procedure of trying to re-sign Albert plays a big role on whether or not Smith goes to Kansas City.
Let's look at it this way; assume the Chiefs decide to part ways with Cassel, Quinn and Albert. You have a hole at quarterback and offensive tackle. What is more important with that first pick?
The Chiefs desperately need a good quarterback to play with Jamaal Charles to help the offensive become three-dimensional. Tackles can be found anywhere and the Chiefs could experiment with Donald Stephenson, if possible.
Quarterbacks are not easy to find; good ones, at least. With the first pick, the Chiefs have the power to take the best quarterback and finally solve their quarterback woes after going through seven different starting quarterbacks since 2007.
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