North Carolina-Michigan State: Breakdown and Winner ATS

ctsports picksAnalyst IApril 6, 2009

DETROIT - APRIL 04:  Tyler Hansbrough #50 and head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels look on against the Villanova Wildcats during the National Semifinal game of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship at Ford Field on April 4, 2009 in Detroit, Michigan.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

College Basketball is down to just two teams and Craig Trapp from CT Sports Picks has the winner. Hope everyone has enjoyed his picks all season and we want to thank everyone for all the feedback on the videos and articles.  But even though NCAA basketball is almost finished, Craig is excited for the NBA postseason and the MLB season.

This National Championship game will be a great contrast of styles. Earlier this year these two teams played in Detroit on this exact same court. The game did not turn out so well for MSU as UNC ran away with the game winning 98-63. The first game featured UNC and the athletic domination was unbelievable. MSU must decide to slow this game down or risk a repeat of the earlier game.  Odds Makers have made UNC -7.5 point favorites and the total at 152.5.  Let's look at the team records and trends:

Team records:

Michigan State: 31-6 SU, 21-13 ATS
North Carolina: 33-4 SU, 17-19 ATS
Recend Trends:
  • -Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • -Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
  • -Spartans are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 NCAA Tournament games.
  • -Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • -Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
  • -Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
We are going to be on UNC today -7.5. MSU will need to slow down the tempo and make this into a half court game. In the first meeting the athletic difference was a huge. The one advantage that MSU has is coaching.
Tom Izzo has willed his team to two straight upset winners, beating Pitino and Calhoun, not bad. Hopefully Roy Williams won't over think this game, and instead let Ty Lawson push the ball. The best collection of NBA talent on one team since the 2005 UNC Championship team. In the end the superior athletic team pulls away and wins by double digits.