Sabermetric Profiles: Chris Young, Erik Bedard, Fausto Carmona, Matt Holliday, Ryan Garko

In a previous column, I explored the role of luck in shaping a baseball player’s stats.

The piece produced a lot of good discussion, and I received a number of requests to evaluate players using advanced sabermetrics. 

I'm happy to oblige.

Those not yet acclimated to sabermetric shorthand should refer to the glossary at the Hardball Times, which explains the meanings of the statistics I’ll be using.

One other note: When I give a batter’s “line” (e.g. .300/.353/.501) the numbers are Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage.

Chris Young, Pitcher, San Diego Padres

In 2007, Chris Young has a 9-3 record with a very good 1.82 ERA. Those numbers are a departure from his career averages—but that shouldn't too surprising, because at the age of 28 Young should be at or near his peak value as a pitcher. 

Players are at their best between the ages of 26 and 29. That's constant for both pitchers and hitters.

Still, Young's stats this season are better than one would expect.: HisFIP and xFIP numbers are much worse than his actual ERA. 

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) are stats that indicate what a pitcher’s ERA should be, regardless of the defensive performance behind him. FIP is based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs, while xFIP is based on the relationship between line drives, fly balls, and ground balls.

Young’s FIP is a very good 2.86, but his xFIP is 4.24. Why the discrepancy? xFIP assumes home runs are merely a product of fly balls to the outfield, as the ratio of fly balls to home runs is relatively constant. Only three percent of Chris Young’s fly balls have found their way out of the ballpark in 2007, whereas more than 12 percent turned into four-baggers in 2006. 

Even if Young is a better pitcher this year than last year, he still has an unsustainably low number of home runs surrendered. His “real” ERA is somewhere between 2.86 and 4.24. Those are very good numbers...but nowhere close to the 1.82 ERA he's currently sporting.

Expect to see some regression next year, fantasy leaguers.

Erik Bedard, Pitcher, Baltimore Orioles

This will be surprisingly boring: Erik Bedard is pitching exactly like he should be, and his statistics are a fair representation of his ability. 

Bedard is 11-4 with a 3.05 ERA. At age 28, he’s at his peak value. In 2007, he's giving up fewer line drives and getting more fly ball outs than he has in the past.

He’s also allowing a few more home runs (a product of his fly balls, if you remember the Chris Young discussion), but he’s improved his walk-to-strikeout ratio and is getting more strikeouts per game. 

Bedard's xFIP is 3.13, which is within the margin of error of his actual 3.05 ERA.

Baltimore fans don't have much to be excited about, but getting to a game to watch Bedard pitch is worth playing hooky.

Fausto Carmona, Pitcher, Cleveland Indians

The young phenom looks like the real deal to me. 

Carmona's 3.17 ERA is better than his 4.02 xFIP, but he has nothing but upside at the age of 23. When a player is as young as Carmona, I prefer to look at minor league stats rather than rely on a small sample size of big league numbers.

In the minors, Carmona went 43-30 with a 3.41 ERA. Those numbers should prove to doubters that Carmona is as good as his 2007 stats.

Barring a major injury, I expect Fausto Carmona to have a string of excellent seasons—and I wouldn’t be surprised if he's in the running for the Cy Young award in 2008.

Matt Holliday, Left Field, Colorado Rockies

Whenever you evaluate a player, you must pay attention to his home ballpark. Coors Field has a reputation as a hitter’s park, and the numbers back that up.

Does Holliday’s season line of .341/.400/.592 represent the “real” Matt Holliday...or is it just the result of the thin Colorado air?

There’s an easy way to find the answer: Look at his home and road splits. Holliday’s line at home is a comically good .384/.439/.722. Away from Coors, he hits a much more believable .300/.363/.470.

Holliday is a good player, and has shown consistent improvement since his rookie season— but he isn't Ted Williams.

Nor, however, are his incredible stats a fluke; they're just a product of where he plays a majority of his games.

Ryan Garko, First Base, Cleveland Indians

Another boring player review, because I think it’s clear that Ryan Garko is playing as well as his stats indicate. 

I see no flukiness here outside of a slightly higher than expected BA/BIP.  Otherwise, Garko is exactly where he should be at 26 years of age.

The young first baseman has a very good 2007 line—310/.376/.508. His career line in the big leagues is .303/.369/.493. In the minors, it was .293/.379/.488. 

Those numbers are nearly the same. In fact, Garko’s career .867 OPS in the majors matches up almost exactly with his career .868 OPS in the minors.